Synopsis
The paper “The short-term effects of the Cosmos 1408 fragmentation on neighboring inhabited space stations and large constellations” by Carmen Pardini and Luciano Anselmo discusses the impact of the anti-satellite test carried out by Russia in November 2021, which led to the destruction of the Cosmos 1408 satellite. This event was the second worst in terms of cataloged debris produced and the third worst fragmentation in orbit. The paper analyzes the evolution of the Cosmos 1408 debris cloud and its effects on the environment below 600 km in the first seven months, focusing on the International Space Station (ISS), China’s Tiangong space station, and the Starlink satellite constellation.
During the first six months following the test, the Cosmos 1408 cloud of fragments nearly doubled the average flux of cataloged objects on the ISS and increased by about 3/4 that on China’s Tiangong. In the same period, the Starlink large constellation saw an average increase in the flux of cataloged objects of about 20%. Some orbital planes were more affected than others, and the affected planes gradually changed over time due to the differential precession of cloud and constellation nodes. However, since the Starlink constellation is 70 km higher up, the flux of Cosmos 1408 cataloged debris steadily decreased over the period analyzed, reducing to just over a quarter of its extrapolated initial value after seven months.
