Synopsis
The report is titled “Future of European Space Exploration: Strategic Scenarios for European Space Exploration 2040-2060”. It was prepared by the European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) in collaboration with the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS).
The report notes that the space exploration sector is undergoing major changes due to shifts in geopolitics, economics, technology, demographics etc. Strategic anticipation is important to chart a course forward.
The report outlines CIFS’s scenario planning methodology which was used to develop four explorative scenarios for the future of European space exploration between 2040-2060. The scenarios are framed around two critical uncertainties:
- The social makeup and narrative of Europe – whether Europe will be socially cohesive with a shared narrative or fragmented without a common story.
- The societal power structures and agenda for space – whether space activities will be driven by governmental bodies or commercial players.
The four scenarios explored are:
- United Orbits: Intergovernmental focus driving long-term strategies
- Competitive Cosmos: Economic necessity loosely holding European countries together
- Sovereign Spaceways: Strong commercial and entrepreneurial civil communities flourishing
- Corporate Galaxy: Unified European narrative standing on historic ambitions
Each scenario explores developments in areas like values and attitudes, global economy, purpose of space exploration etc. The scenarios aim to uncover insights and blind spots regarding the future of European space exploration.
The report concludes by noting that elements from all four scenarios will likely be incorporated in the actual future. Strategic foresight is essential for decision-making that aims to be alert, enduring and forward-thinking.
