Synopsis
The report discusses potential U.S. theories of victory and escalation risks in a hypothetical war with China over Taiwan. It focuses on military theories of victory from the U.S. Department of Defense perspective.
The two most viable theories of victory identified are:
- Denial – Persuade China that it cannot successfully take Taiwan by destroying capabilities like sealift assets. This has lower escalation risks but operational challenges.
- Military Cost-Imposition – Convince China the war is too costly to continue by imposing military costs like a blockade. This relies on targeting pressure points without unacceptable escalation.
The report argues denial offers the best prospects for success while managing escalation risks. Cost-imposition has lower chances of success and higher risks of prompting retaliation and nuclear escalation due to the difficulty of finding the right pressure points.
The report emphasizes the need to keep war aims limited, avoid attacking leadership or strategic nuclear targets, and provide assurances that pain will stop if China complies. This can help reduce escalation risks. Careful force structure and doctrine choices are needed to prepare options with lower escalation potential.
In summary, the report argues denial is the most viable theory of victory in a war over Taiwan, but escalation risks remain high in any U.S.-China conflict scenario. Careful planning for escalation management is essential.
