In an alternate universe, China was invited to be one of the founding partners in the International Space Station (ISS) program alongside the United States, Russia, Japan, Canada, and European nations in the 1990s. In our reality, China has been excluded from the ISS due to a 2011 U.S. law that prohibits NASA from using government funds to engage in direct, bilateral cooperation with the Chinese government or Chinese companies. But what if the U.S. had taken a different approach and embraced collaboration with China in low Earth orbit from the beginning? Such a decision could have had profound ripple effects, transforming the landscape of space exploration and geopolitics here in 2024.
The ISS: A Model of International Cooperation
Orbiting about 250 miles above Earth, the football field-sized ISS is often hailed as a shining example of international cooperation and what humanity can achieve when nations work together. The station’s current primary partners are the space agencies of the U.S., Russia, Japan, Canada and several European countries. 280 individuals from 23 different countries have visited the ISS.
The station was born out of the ashes of the Space Race and Cold War tensions between the U.S. and Soviet Union. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the U.S. sought to engage Russia and prevent newly unemployed Russian rocket scientists from selling their expertise to countries like North Korea or Iran. The Clinton administration brought Russia into the ISS program, making them a critical partner. This cooperation continued even as U.S.-Russia relations deteriorated in the 2010s, and more recently with the Ukraine war.
China’s Parallel Path in Space
Meanwhile, China embarked on its own path in human spaceflight, launching its first taikonaut in 2003. China has since achieved many milestones, including multi-crew missions, spacewalks, two small space labs, and the core module of its own space station. China is not dependent on the ISS and is building an orbital outpost on its own.
Some U.S. policymakers view China’s space program with suspicion, seeing it as an extension of Chinese military ambitions and a threat to U.S. space superiority. Reports warn that China’s space capabilities “may come at the expense of U.S. leadership and has serious implications for U.S. interests.” This distrust, along with concerns over technology transfer, human rights, and other disputes, led to the 2011 Wolf Amendment which severed NASA’s ties with China.
Diverging Paths, Missed Opportunities?
So here in 2024, the U.S. and China have followed largely separate and increasingly competitive paths in space over the last two decades. But what if history had played out differently? What if rather than shutting China out, the U.S. had invited Beijing to be an integral part of the ISS from its inception, working hand-in-hand with NASA and other international partners?
Such a monumental decision could have altered the trajectory of the 21st century space age and U.S.-China relations in profound ways. Below we will explore some of the biggest potential impacts and ripple effects of this alternate timeline.
Fostering Cooperation Over Competition
Turning Rivals into Partners
Including China as an original member of the ISS program in the 1990s would have been a bold gesture of goodwill, trust and desire for genuine partnership between the U.S. and China. At a time when U.S.-China relations were on an upswing in the wake of the Cold War, it could have laid the foundation for a more collaborative than competitive dynamic between the two powers, at least in the realm of space exploration.
Just as the ISS partnership helped transform U.S.-Russia space relations from one of intense rivalry to pragmatic cooperation, Chinese involvement could have had a similar impact. With their space agencies working closely together on the ISS, the U.S. and China may have developed a stronger rapport and mechanisms for sustained collaboration.
Regular interactions between American, Chinese and other international astronauts living and working together on the ISS could have fostered greater cross-cultural understanding and camaraderie. Jointly overcoming challenges in orbit has a way of bonding space travelers that transcends nationalities. Personal relationships cultivated between U.S. and Chinese astronauts could have helped humanize the other side.
Embracing a Global Space Station
Chinese participation would have also made the ISS feel more like a truly global endeavor. China is the world’s most populous nation and second largest economy. Including them would have ensured the station better represented all of humanity.
The ISS could have served as a high-profile symbol of U.S.-China cooperation and partnership to the world. Each mission and milestone would have been a shared success. With China inside the tent as a trusted partner in orbit, the image of the two powers working together may have had positive spillover effects in other arenas.
Of course, integrating China into the ISS would not have magically erased all tensions and solved every dispute between Beijing and Washington back on Earth. But it could have engendered a greater spirit of collaboration and set a more positive tone for the overall relationship. With the two countries’ fortunes tied together in space, they may have been more inclined to find common ground and compromise in other thorny areas.
Avoiding a New Space Race
In our current reality, China’s exclusion from the ISS has in some ways sparked a new space race. Shut out of the orbiting lab, China has forged ahead with its own space station program. Some have characterized it as a competition between the established ISS and upstart Chinese outpost.
But in a timeline where China was welcomed as an ISS partner from the start, this dynamic may have played out very differently. With Beijing invested in the ISS’ success, China would have had less incentive to build a separate space station of its own. The partners could have pooled their resources and expertise into one single space station program.
This may have precluded a heated race between the U.S. and China to achieve the next big milestones in LEO, such as building the first commercial space station or establishing a permanent human presence. Instead of trying to outdo each other, the two countries could have worked in lockstep as ISS partners.
Chinese involvement may have also extended the lifespan of the ISS itself. Right now, the future of the aging station is uncertain, with current agreements only running through 2030. But with China as a major partner and stakeholder, the political and financial commitments to keep ISS going may have been stronger. China’s funding and technical contributions could have breathed new life into the program.
So in this alternate 2024, the U.S., China and other nations might still be working together aboard a thriving ISS, possibly with new modules or capabilities, rather than pursuing separate LEO ambitions. The station could remain the only show in town and a powerful symbol of international unity.
Advancing Science and Exploration
Expanding the Orbiting Laboratory
The ISS functions as a cutting-edge orbiting laboratory for conducting experiments and research not possible on Earth. Over 3,000 investigations from researchers in 108 countries have been carried out on the ISS so far. This science has led to breakthroughs in fields like medicine, materials, fundamental physics and biology.
Chinese experiments and hardware could have expanded the ISS’ capabilities as a research platform. China has a rapidly advancing scientific establishment and ambitious plans for microgravity research. In our timeline, China has had to carry out this science on its own smaller space labs. But in a world where China was an ISS member from the beginning, the station could have benefited from an additional influx of Chinese resources, cargo, experiments and brain power.
For example, China could have contributed additional laboratory modules to the ISS dedicated to fields where it has particular strengths, such as materials science, quantum physics, stem cell research or traditional Chinese medicine. This would have provided a larger array of facilities for not just Chinese scientists but researchers from all over the world to conduct groundbreaking studies.
Chinese participation could have also enabled certain large-scale, resource-intensive experiments requiring more astronaut time, power, and equipment than any single country could provide alone. Pooling capabilities may have accelerated the pace of discovery.
Enhancing Cargo and Crew Capabilities
In our current timeline, NASA relies on Russian Soyuz flights for crew transportation and Russian Progress vehicles for cargo deliveries to the ISS, especially after the Space Shuttle retired in 2011. More recently, U.S. commercial crew and cargo providers like SpaceX have come online. Europe and Japan also provide cargo ships.
In a timeline with China as an ISS partner, Beijing could have contributed additional cargo and crew vehicles to the fleet servicing the station. China is already developing a cargo capsule and new crew spacecraft for its own space station. These could have instead been optimized for ISS flights, providing redundant access and greater flexibility in crew rotations and resupply runs.
Chinese launch vehicles like the Long March rockets could have also been human-rated and enlisted to loft Chinese and international astronauts to the ISS, supplementing the U.S. and Russian launch capabilities. This may have been especially useful during gaps like the post-Shuttle period.
Spurring Innovation and Spinoffs
The ISS has served as a driver of technological innovation, as engineers and scientists have to devise creative solutions to the challenges of living and working in microgravity. Inventions originally developed for the ISS have found applications in areas like robotic surgery, water purification, 3D printing and even golf clubs.
Chinese involvement in the ISS could have injected additional ingenuity into the program. China has a thriving commercial space industry and entrepreneurial tech sector. Bringing Chinese companies into the fold as contractors and service providers for the ISS could have spurred healthy competition and outside-the-box thinking.
Cross-pollination between U.S., Chinese and other international space firms may have accelerated the development of new technologies. Collaborative problem-solving could have generated novel spinoffs with benefits back on Earth. A more integrated global space innovation ecosystem anchored around the ISS may have emerged.
Planning for Deep Space Exploration
The ISS also serves as a testbed for technologies and techniques needed for future human missions beyond LEO, such as to the Moon or Mars. The station has allowed astronauts to study the long-term effects of microgravity on human health, test life support systems, and practice skills like spacewalks.
With China as a major ISS partner, the station could have been used more intentionally as a jumping-off point for planning deep space exploration campaigns. The partners could have leveraged the ISS as a hub to test out new technologies like advanced life support, in-situ resource utilization, or deep-space habitats in an accessible LEO environment before deploying them on the lunar surface or journeys to Mars.
Astronauts from the U.S., China and other nations could have trained together on the ISS to simulate the confined, isolated, international conditions of a long-duration interplanetary mission. This would have built operational know-how and interpersonal skills for the next giant leap.
The ISS partners could have also staged joint preparatory missions in cislunar space using the station as a base. Astronauts could have ventured beyond LEO together to test the waters before committing to full-blown expeditions to the Moon or Mars. The ISS could serve as a home port and safe haven for these initial forays.
In this alternate timeline, the U.S., China and other ISS partners may have been able to collectively plan a shared, stepwise approach to expanding human presence deeper into the solar system. Rather than competing over limited resources, they could work in concert leveraging their complementary strengths. The ISS could be a unifying first rung on an integrated exploration ladder.
Geopolitical Implications
Spillover Effects on Earth
The impacts of China joining the ISS would likely reverberate far beyond the space sector. It could have major geopolitical implications and shape the tenor of international relations here in 2024.
The ISS has weathered ups and downs in U.S.-Russia relations over the decades and proven to be a constant, stabilizing force. Even when bilateral tensions were high, such as after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and their war against Ukraine, ISS cooperation endured. The station became a foreign policy tool and an area of common cause.
Similarly, Chinese participation in the ISS could have served as a ballast for the broader U.S.-China relationship. With their fates entwined in orbit, the two countries may have been more inclined to maintain stability and dial down tensions on Earth. Neither side would want a geopolitical flare-up to jeopardize their shared investment in space.
Of course, the ISS collaboration would not have completely insulated the U.S.-China relationship from friction. Disputes over trade, Taiwan, human rights, and regional security would have still occurred. But with the ISS as a bright spot, there may have been more of an impetus to compartmentalize and prevent terrestrial conflicts from bleeding into space.
The habits of cooperation and trust built through the ISS could have had positive spillover effects into other domains. Accustomed to working together in space, the U.S. and China may have been more open to pursuing win-win opportunities and jointly tackling shared challenges in areas like climate change, global health, or economic development. The ISS could be a model to emulate.
Shaping Global Space Governance
As a major ISS partner, China would have had a seat at the table in shaping the norms, rules and principles governing human spaceflight. The ISS Intergovernmental Agreement and Memoranda of Understanding signed between the partners form the legal framework for the program. China would have been party to these foundational documents.
Chinese involvement could have brought a valuable developing country perspective to the ISS framework. China may have advocated for provisions aimed at ensuring the benefits of space exploration are shared more equitably among nations. It could have pushed for more opportunities for non-spacefaring countries to access the station.
As the ISS partners look to extend the model of cooperation beyond LEO, China would have a voice in those discussions too. Decisions about issues like resource extraction, environmental protection, or heritage preservation as humans venture to the Moon and Mars could have a Chinese imprint.
With China inside the ISS partnership, the station’s governance framework may have evolved in a more multilateral direction. Other major spacefaring nations like India, Brazil or Nigeria could have been granted observer status or pathways to full membership. The ISS could serve as the nucleus of an expanding alliance.
This more inclusive ISS framework could have set important precedents and served as a model for global space governance writ large here in 2024. Rather than competing blocs led by the U.S. and China, we may have a more unified international community working together to tackle the challenges of space exploration under common rules and institutions.
Inspiring the Next Generation
The ISS has been a powerful tool for inspiring the next generation of scientists, engineers and explorers. Millions of students around the world have participated in ISS educational activities, like talking to astronauts in orbit or conducting classroom versions of ISS experiments.
Chinese participation in the ISS could have exposed even more young people to the wonders of space exploration. Students in China and around the world would have grown up seeing Chinese taikonauts living and working alongside astronauts from the U.S., Russia, and other nations as a normal, everyday occurrence. This could help instill a more global and collaborative mindset from an early age.
Joint U.S.-China educational campaigns centered on the ISS could have reached even broader audiences. Imagine astronauts giving televised science lessons in English and Mandarin to classrooms around the world, or a U.S.-China student science fair with winners getting to send their experiments to the ISS.
Over time, this could help cultivate a rising generation of space leaders who see cooperation as the default and competition as the exception. A more internationally-minded cohort of young space professionals in the U.S., China and beyond may be more inclined to dream up joint projects and work across borders here in 2024.
Conclusion
Of course, all of this is speculative. We can never know for sure how history would have unfolded if China had joined the ISS from the beginning. But it’s clear that the decision to exclude China has had profound impacts on the trajectory of space exploration and U.S.-China relations over the last two decades.
