The world is facing unprecedented change and uncertainty. The COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and other global events have highlighted the fragility of the international order. In this context, it is more important than ever to understand the long-term trends that will shape the future.
Global Strategic Trends 7 (GST 7) is a publication produced by the UK Ministry of Defence’s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC). It provides a comprehensive analysis of the key trends that will shape the world out to 2055. GST 7 is based on extensive research and analysis, including interviews with experts from around the world.
This article provides a detailed overview of the key findings of GST 7. It is structured around the six global drivers of change that are identified in the report:
- Global power competition
- Demographic pressures
- Climate change and pressure on the environment
- Technological advances and connectivity
- Economic transformation and energy transition
- Inequality and pressure on governance
Global Drivers of Change
1. Global Power Competition
The world is moving towards a more multipolar order, with the US and China emerging as the two leading powers. This competition is playing out in a number of areas, including economics, technology, and security.
The rise of China is one of the most significant trends of the 21st century. China is already the world’s second-largest economy and is projected to overtake the US in the coming decades. China is also making significant investments in its military capabilities and is seeking to expand its influence in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
The US is responding to the rise of China by strengthening its alliances and partnerships, and by making significant investments in its own military capabilities. The US is also seeking to maintain its technological edge and is working to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
The competition between the US and China is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. This competition will have a profound impact on the global order and will create new challenges for other countries.
2. Demographic Pressures
The world’s population is projected to continue to grow, reaching 9.7 billion by 2050. However, this growth will be unevenly distributed. The majority of the growth will take place in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
The ageing of the population is another significant trend. The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to more than double by 2050. This will have a major impact on health care systems and pension schemes.
Migration is also a significant trend. The number of people living outside their country of birth is projected to increase in the coming decades. This will create new challenges for governments, as they seek to integrate migrants into their societies.
3. Climate Change and Pressure on the Environment
Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing the world today. The effects of climate change are already being felt, and they are projected to become more severe in the coming decades.
The world is likely to experience more extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves. These events will have a major impact on human societies and economies.
Climate change is also likely to lead to a rise in sea levels. This will threaten coastal communities and infrastructure.
The world is not on track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change. If the world does not take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the effects of climate change will be catastrophic.
4. Technological Advances and Connectivity
The world is experiencing rapid technological change. This change is being driven by a number of factors, including the increasing availability of data, the development of artificial intelligence, and the growth of the Internet of Things.
Technological change is having a profound impact on all aspects of human life. It is changing the way we work, the way we communicate, and the way we live.
Technological change is also creating new challenges. These challenges include the risk of cyberattacks, the spread of disinformation, and the development of autonomous weapons.
5. Economic Transformation and Energy Transition
The global economy is undergoing a period of transformation. This transformation is being driven by a number of factors, including the rise of China, the growth of the digital economy, and the transition to a low-carbon economy.
The rise of China is having a major impact on the global economy. China is already the world’s second-largest economy and is projected to overtake the US in the coming decades. This is leading to a shift in the balance of economic power from the West to the East.
The growth of the digital economy is another significant trend. The digital economy is transforming the way we work, the way we communicate, and the way we live.
The transition to a low-carbon economy is also a significant trend. The world is moving away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy sources. This transition will have a major impact on the global economy.
6. Inequality and Pressure on Governance
Inequality is a growing problem around the world. The gap between the rich and the poor is widening, and this is leading to social and political unrest.
The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated inequality. The pandemic has had a disproportionate impact on the poor and vulnerable.
The war in Ukraine is also likely to exacerbate inequality. The war is having a negative impact on the global economy, and this is likely to hit the poorest countries hardest.
The growing problem of inequality is putting pressure on governance structures. Governments are struggling to address the root causes of inequality, and this is leading to a loss of trust in government.
The Future World Order
The future world order is likely to be more multipolar and complex than the current order. The US and China will continue to be the two leading powers, but other countries will also play an important role.
The rise of the Global South is one of the most significant trends of the 21st century. The Global South is home to the majority of the world’s population and is experiencing rapid economic growth. This is leading to a shift in the balance of power from the West to the South.
The future world order is also likely to be more fragmented. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have led to a decline in trust between countries. This is making it more difficult to cooperate on global challenges.
The future world order is also likely to be more volatile. The world is facing a number of challenges, including climate change, inequality, and the risk of conflict. These challenges could lead to increased instability and conflict.
Regions
GST 7 provides a detailed analysis of the key trends that will shape each of the world’s regions. The report identifies a number of challenges and opportunities facing each region.
East and South Asia is a region of great economic and strategic importance. The region is home to two of the world’s largest economies, China and India. The region is also a major theatre for global power competition.
Southeast Asia and Oceania is a region of growing economic and strategic importance. The region is home to a number of emerging economies, including Indonesia and Vietnam. The region is also a major maritime crossroads.
Russia is a major power with a large nuclear arsenal. Russia is seeking to maintain its influence in its near abroad and is challenging the Western-led international order.
Central Asia is a region of strategic importance. The region is rich in natural resources and is a key transit route for energy supplies. The region is also facing a number of challenges, including terrorism and extremism.
Southwest Asia and the South Caucasus is a region of great instability. The region is home to a number of ongoing conflicts, including the war in Syria and the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Africa is a continent of great diversity. The continent is home to a number of emerging economies, including Nigeria and South Africa. The continent is also facing a number of challenges, including poverty, conflict, and climate change.
Europe is a region of advanced economies and mature democracies. The region is home to a number of major powers, including France, Germany, and the UK. The region is also facing a number of challenges, including an ageing population and the rise of populism.
Latin America and the Caribbean is a region of great diversity. The region is home to a number of emerging economies, including Brazil and Mexico. The region is also facing a number of challenges, including inequality and crime.
Northern America is a region of advanced economies and mature democracies. The region is home to the world’s largest economy, the US. The region is also facing a number of challenges, including an ageing population and climate change.
Shared Spaces
GST 7 also provides an analysis of the key trends that will shape the shared spaces of the Arctic, the Antarctic, the oceans, space, and cyberspace.
The Arctic is a region of growing strategic importance. The region is rich in natural resources and is becoming more accessible due to climate change. The region is also a major maritime crossroads.
The Antarctic is a continent of peace and science. The Antarctic Treaty System prohibits military activity and promotes scientific research. However, the future of the Antarctic is uncertain due to climate change and the growing interest in the region’s natural resources.
The oceans are a vital part of the global economy. The oceans are used for transportation, fishing, and energy production. The oceans are also facing a number of challenges, including pollution, overfishing, and climate change.
Space is becoming increasingly important for a variety of purposes, including communications, navigation, and environmental monitoring. The space domain is also becoming increasingly accessible to a wider range of state and non-state actors, resulting in new interests and alignments. Increasing competition in the space domain will see both state and commercial actors seeking to achieve dominance through technological breakthroughs, mindful of the potential for financial and strategic gain.
Space is also likely to become increasingly important for the global economy, with new technologies and services opening up fresh opportunities for both state and non-state actors. The space sector is likely to become increasingly important for global economic growth, and the competition for dominance in the space domain is likely to intensify.
Thematic Areas
GST 7 also provides an analysis of the key trends that will shape the thematic areas of society, economy, environment, information and technology, and conflict and security.
Society is facing a number of challenges, including an ageing population, rising inequality, and the impact of climate change. However, society is also benefiting from a number of positive trends, including the growth of the middle class and the increasing availability of education.
The economy is undergoing a period of transformation, driven by the rise of China, the growth of the digital economy, and the transition to a low-carbon economy. The global economy is facing a number of challenges, including high levels of debt and the risk of protectionism.
The environment is under increasing pressure from climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss. The world is not on track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change. If the world does not take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the effects of climate change will be catastrophic.
The world is experiencing rapid advances in information and technology. These advances are having a profound impact on all aspects of human life. However, they are also creating new challenges, such as the risk of cyberattacks and the spread of disinformation.
The world is also facing a number of conflict and security challenges, including terrorism, extremism, and the risk of interstate conflict. The war in Ukraine is a major security challenge for Europe and the world.
Conclusion
GST 7 is a valuable resource for understanding the long-term trends that will shape the future. The report identifies a number of challenges and opportunities facing the world. It is clear that the world is facing a period of unprecedented change and uncertainty. However, the report also highlights the potential for cooperation and innovation to address these challenges.
