As the International Space Station (ISS) approaches the end of its operational life, NASA is looking ahead to the future of human presence in low Earth orbit (LEO). The space agency has been actively planning for the transition from the government-operated ISS to commercially owned and operated space stations, known as Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs). This shift represents a significant change in how NASA approaches space exploration and scientific research in LEO, with implications for both the agency and the growing commercial space industry.
Background
The ISS has been a cornerstone of NASA’s human spaceflight program and scientific research in microgravity for over two decades. However, the aging station is expected to be decommissioned by the end of the 2020s. Recognizing the ongoing importance of having a continuous human presence in LEO, NASA has been working on plans to support the development of commercial space stations that can take over many of the functions currently performed by the ISS.
NASA’s Vision for Commercial LEO Destinations
NASA envisions a future where multiple commercial space stations operate in LEO, providing platforms for scientific research, technology development, and commercial activities. These CLDs would serve not only NASA’s needs but also those of other government agencies, international partners, and private companies. By transitioning to commercial platforms, NASA hopes to reduce its costs for LEO operations while stimulating the growth of a robust space economy.
Projected Demand for CLD Services
To help guide the development of CLDs, NASA has conducted extensive studies and consultations with various stakeholders to estimate its future needs in LEO. These projections cover a range of resources and capabilities that the agency expects to require from commercial space stations.
Crew Time
One of the most critical resources for conducting research and technology demonstrations in space is crew time. NASA estimates that it will need approximately 3,000 to 4,000 hours of crew time annually on CLDs. This time would be used for conducting experiments, maintaining equipment, and performing other necessary tasks to support scientific investigations and technology development.
The projected crew time is based on historical data from ISS operations and anticipated future needs. It’s important to note that this estimate represents a significant portion of the available crew time, assuming a typical crew of 2-4 astronauts dedicated to NASA activities. The agency expects that the majority of this time will be provided by NASA astronauts, but there may be opportunities for private astronauts to contribute to some activities as well.
Number of Experiments
NASA projects that it will conduct between 130 and 230 experiments annually on CLDs. These experiments span a wide range of scientific disciplines, including biology, physics, materials science, and human health research. The ability to conduct a large number of diverse experiments is crucial for advancing our understanding of how space environments affect various systems and for developing technologies for future space exploration.
The wide range in the number of experiments reflects the variability in complexity and duration of different types of research. Some experiments may be short-term and require minimal crew interaction, while others may be long-duration studies that require frequent monitoring and sample collection. NASA’s estimate also accounts for the potential increase in research opportunities that may arise from more efficient laboratory designs and improved experimental protocols in the commercial platforms.
Data and Communication Requirements
To support its research activities, NASA anticipates needing significant data storage and transmission capabilities on CLDs. The agency estimates a requirement for about 500 terabytes of on-board digital storage capacity and a data transmission rate of at least 150 megabits per second. Additionally, NASA expects to need multiple audio and video communication channels to facilitate real-time interactions between astronauts on the CLDs and ground control.
These data and communication requirements are essential for ensuring that scientific data can be collected, stored, and transmitted back to Earth efficiently. The high data transmission rate is particularly important for experiments that generate large amounts of data, such as high-resolution imaging or continuous monitoring of biological samples. The multiple communication channels will allow for simultaneous support of different experiments and operational activities.
Storage and Workspace
NASA’s projections indicate a need for approximately 24 cubic meters of storage and workspace on CLDs. This volume is equivalent to about 15.5 International Standard Payload Racks (ISPRs), which are the standard units used for experiment hardware on the ISS. The agency also anticipates requiring specialized facilities such as gloveboxes for containment and sample manipulation, as well as various racks for specific types of research.
The storage and workspace requirements reflect the diverse nature of NASA’s research portfolio. Different types of experiments require different types of equipment and workspace configurations. For example, biological experiments may need sterile environments and temperature-controlled storage, while materials science experiments might require furnaces or other specialized equipment. The flexibility to reconfigure workspace and accommodate different types of research equipment will be a key consideration for CLD designers.
External Payload Capabilities
In addition to internal facilities, NASA expects CLDs to provide 5 to 8 external viewing sites for experiments and observations that require direct exposure to the space environment. These external capabilities are important for Earth observation, space weather monitoring, and technology demonstrations that cannot be conducted inside the pressurized modules.
External payloads have been a crucial part of ISS research, allowing for studies of the space environment, testing of new technologies in the harsh conditions of space, and observations of Earth and celestial phenomena. The ability to mount, operate, and service external payloads will be an important feature for CLDs to support a wide range of scientific and technological investigations.
Transportation Requirements
To support its research activities, NASA estimates an annual need to transport about 5,000 kilograms of cargo to CLDs and return approximately 2,000 kilograms to Earth. This includes supplies, experiment hardware, and samples for analysis. The ability to regularly send materials to and from the CLDs is essential for maintaining a robust research program in LEO.
These transportation requirements highlight the ongoing need for reliable cargo delivery and return capabilities. While the specific vehicles used for these services may change over time, the fundamental requirement for regular resupply and sample return missions will remain a critical aspect of CLD operations.
Power and Resources
NASA projects a need for about 42 kilowatts of power to support its internal research facilities on CLDs, plus an additional 5 to 8 kilowatts for external payloads. The agency also requires access to essential resources such as potable water, vacuum venting systems, thermal control, and a supply of consumables for experiments.
The power requirements reflect the energy-intensive nature of many space-based experiments and the need to operate multiple research facilities simultaneously. Access to resources like water and thermal control systems is crucial for maintaining a habitable environment and supporting various types of research activities.
Breakdown of NASA User Groups
NASA’s projected demand for CLD services comes from several different user groups within the agency, each with its own specific needs and priorities. Understanding these different user groups and their requirements is essential for designing CLDs that can effectively support NASA’s diverse research portfolio.
Biological and Physical Sciences (BPS)
The BPS division conducts a wide range of fundamental and applied research in microgravity. Their projected needs include:
- 375-575 hours of crew time annually
- An average of 35 experiments per year (maximum of 45)
- Significant data storage and transmission capabilities
- Specialized research facilities such as gloveboxes and various types of furnaces
The BPS division’s research spans a wide range of disciplines, including fluid physics, combustion science, materials science, biophysics, and plant biology. Their experiments often require specialized equipment and precise environmental control. For example, they may need furnaces capable of melting metals in microgravity, centrifuges for creating artificial gravity environments, or plant growth chambers for studying how plants adapt to space conditions.
The variability in crew time and number of experiments reflects the diverse nature of BPS research. Some experiments may require frequent crew interaction for sample collection or equipment adjustment, while others may run autonomously for long periods. The division’s data requirements are particularly high due to the need to capture detailed measurements and high-resolution imagery in many of their experiments.
Human Research Program/Human Health and Performance (HRP/HHP)
This program focuses on understanding and mitigating the health risks associated with long-duration spaceflight. Their estimated requirements include:
- 430-750 hours of crew time annually
- An average of 10 experiments per year (maximum of 25)
- Facilities for biomedical research and health monitoring
The HRP/HHP research is critical for enabling future long-duration space missions, including potential missions to Mars. Their experiments often involve monitoring astronaut health, studying the effects of microgravity on the human body, and testing countermeasures to mitigate these effects. This research requires a combination of specialized medical equipment, such as ultrasound machines and exercise devices, as well as facilities for collecting and storing biological samples.
The wide range in crew time reflects the variability in the types of studies conducted. Some may involve intensive data collection periods, while others might require regular but brief health checks over extended periods. The number of experiments is generally lower than BPS, but each experiment often involves multiple subjects and complex protocols.
Earth Science Division (ESD) and Heliophysics Division (HPD)
These divisions primarily use external payloads for Earth observation and space weather studies. Their combined needs include:
- Minimal crew time
- An average of 5 experiments per year (maximum of 21)
- 5 to 8 external viewing sites
The ESD and HPD research leverages the unique vantage point of LEO to study Earth’s atmosphere, climate, and the Sun-Earth connection. Their experiments often involve sensors and instruments that need direct exposure to space, such as atmospheric composition analyzers, solar radiation monitors, and Earth-imaging systems.
While these divisions require minimal crew time for their experiments, they have significant needs in terms of external payload accommodations. The external viewing sites need to provide power, data connections, and the ability to precisely orient instruments. The wide range in the number of experiments (5 to 21) reflects the potential for both long-duration monitoring experiments and shorter-term technology demonstrations.
Technology Demonstrations
Various NASA directorates conduct technology demonstrations to advance capabilities for future space exploration. Their combined requirements include:
- Approximately 1,400 hours of crew time annually
- About 24 experiments per year
- Facilities for testing new technologies in the space environment
Technology demonstrations play a crucial role in advancing NASA’s capabilities for future missions. These experiments can range from testing new life support systems and advanced propulsion technologies to demonstrating in-space manufacturing techniques or novel radiation shielding materials.
The significant crew time allocation for technology demonstrations reflects the often hands-on nature of these experiments. Many require astronauts to set up equipment, monitor tests, and make adjustments based on results. The number of experiments is moderate, but each demonstration often involves complex hardware and multiple test scenarios.
National Laboratory Function
In addition to NASA’s own research needs, the agency envisions continuing a national laboratory function on CLDs, similar to the current ISS National Lab. This would provide opportunities for other government agencies, academic institutions, and private companies to conduct research in LEO. The projected resources for this national lab function include:
- 870-1,270 hours of crew time annually
- An average of 60 experiments per year (maximum of 90)
- Dedicated communication channels and data transmission capabilities
The national laboratory function is a key component of NASA’s strategy to maximize the scientific and economic benefits of LEO research. It allows for a diverse range of investigations that complement NASA’s core research areas and promotes innovation across various fields of science and technology.
The wide range in crew time and number of experiments for the national lab function reflects the diverse nature of non-NASA research that could be conducted on CLDs. This could include everything from pharmaceutical research and materials development to educational outreach programs and commercial technology demonstrations.
Factors Influencing Demand
NASA’s projected demand for CLD services is based on several factors and assumptions:
Historical ISS Usage
Many of the estimates are derived from historical data on how NASA has utilized the ISS. This provides a baseline for understanding the agency’s needs in LEO. However, it’s important to note that CLDs may offer new capabilities or efficiencies that could change how research is conducted in space.
Future Mission Priorities
NASA’s plans for future exploration missions, particularly to the Moon and Mars, influence the types of research and technology development that need to be conducted in LEO. As these mission plans evolve, they may impact the priorities for CLD research.
Scientific Decadal Surveys
The priorities set by scientific decadal surveys, which outline the most important research questions for various fields, help guide NASA’s research plans in space. These surveys are conducted periodically and can significantly influence the focus of space-based research.
Technological Advancements
Improvements in research equipment and experimental techniques may allow for more efficient use of resources on CLDs, potentially affecting the quantity of experiments that can be conducted. For example, advancements in automation and remote operation could reduce the need for crew time in some types of experiments.
Budget Considerations
NASA’s budget allocations for LEO activities will play a significant role in determining the actual level of utilization of CLDs. Changes in funding levels could impact the number of experiments conducted or the resources available for CLD services.
Challenges and Considerations
While NASA has provided these projections to help guide the development of CLDs, there are several challenges and considerations that may affect the actual demand for commercial space station services:
Transition Period
The transition from the ISS to CLDs will likely involve a period of overlap and adjustment, which could impact the initial utilization rates of commercial platforms. NASA will need to carefully manage this transition to ensure continuity of research and minimize disruptions.
Multiple Providers
NASA envisions supporting multiple CLD providers, which means that the projected demand may be spread across several different space stations. This could lead to challenges in standardization and interoperability between different platforms.
Evolving Priorities
As space technology and scientific understanding advance, NASA’s research priorities and resource needs in LEO may change over time. CLDs will need to be flexible enough to accommodate shifting research focus and new types of experiments.
Commercial Demand
The success of CLDs will depend not only on NASA’s utilization but also on demand from other customers, including private companies and international partners. The ability to attract and sustain commercial customers will be crucial for the long-term viability of CLDs.
Policy and Funding
Changes in government policy or funding levels could affect NASA’s ability to support and utilize CLDs at the projected levels. Long-term commitment from policymakers will be important for providing stability to the CLD market.
NASA’s Role in Supporting CLD Development
To help ensure the successful development of CLDs, NASA is taking several steps:
Providing Information
By sharing detailed projections of its needs, NASA plans to give potential CLD providers the information they need to design appropriate facilities and services. This includes not only the quantitative estimates of resource needs but also insights into the types of research and technology development that NASA plans to pursue in LEO.
Funding Support
NASA has awarded contracts to several companies to develop concepts for commercial space stations and is providing funding to support their initial development efforts. This financial support is crucial for helping companies overcome the significant upfront costs associated with developing space infrastructure.
Technical Expertise
The agency is offering its extensive experience in operating the ISS to help inform the design and operation of CLDs. This includes sharing lessons learned about everything from life support systems and microgravity research techniques to logistics and crew operations.
Anchor Tenant Commitment
NASA plans to be a significant customer for CLD services, providing a stable base of demand to help make these commercial ventures viable. This commitment helps reduce the financial risk for CLD providers and can make it easier for them to secure additional funding and customers.
Regulatory Framework
The agency is working with other government entities to establish a regulatory framework that will enable commercial activities in LEO while ensuring safety and national interests. This includes addressing issues such as orbital debris mitigation, space traffic management, and the protection of sensitive technologies.
Potential Impact on Space Economy
NASA’s support for CLDs is expected to have significant implications for the broader space economy:
New Markets
The availability of commercial space stations could open up new markets for in-space manufacturing, tourism, and other commercial activities. This could include everything from producing high-value materials that benefit from microgravity conditions to hosting private astronauts for research or tourism purposes.
Job Creation
The development and operation of CLDs are likely to create new jobs in the space industry and related sectors. This includes not only direct employment in spacecraft design and operations but also jobs in areas such as scientific research, technology development, and support services.
Technological Innovation
The push to develop cost-effective commercial space stations may drive innovation in areas such as life support systems, power generation, and in-space construction. These innovations could have applications beyond LEO, potentially benefiting future missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond.
International Cooperation
CLDs could provide new opportunities for international collaboration in space research and exploration. By offering a more accessible platform for space-based research, CLDs could enable broader participation in space activities from countries and organizations that may not have the resources to develop their own space stations.
Summary
NASA’s projected demand for Commercial LEO Destinations represents a significant shift in how the agency plans to conduct research and technology development in low Earth orbit. By transitioning from the government-operated International Space Station to commercially owned and operated platforms, NASA plans to reduce its costs while stimulating the growth of a robust space economy.
The agency’s estimates indicate a substantial ongoing need for crew time, experiment facilities, data capabilities, and various other resources in LEO. These projections are based on historical ISS usage, future mission priorities Siri open, and anticipated scientific and technological advancements. However, the actual utilization of CLDs will depend on various factors.
