NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) has produced formal economic evaluations of strategies to address the risks posed by orbital debris – fragments of defunct spacecraft, spent rocket stages, and other human-made objects orbiting Earth. These analyses quantify both the costs of actions (such as debris removal, tracking, and mitigation) and the benefits of reduced collision risk in monetary terms, enabling decision-makers to compare a wide range of approaches using a common economic framework.
Report References
NASA OTPS, “Cost and Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Remediation.”
Available online: Cost and Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Remediation (March 2023).
NASA OTPS, “Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris.”
Available online: Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris (May 2024).
Analytical Approach and Framework
NASA’s cost-benefit analyses treat orbital debris management as an economic optimization problem by assigning monetary values to:
- Risks posed by debris, expressed in terms of potential mission losses, increased shielding or avoidance costs, and operational impacts.
- Costs of debris actions, including research, development, deployment, and ongoing operations.
- Benefits of risk reduction, calculated as avoided expenses associated with collisions, avoidance maneuvers, or spacecraft replacement.
This framework allows different strategies – from enhanced tracking systems to active removal missions – to be compared on a consistent net present value basis over multi-decade time horizons.
Findings of the Phase 1 Report
The 2023 “Cost and Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Remediation” focused primarily on actions to remove or relocate existing debris. The analysis highlighted the following economic insights:
- Certain debris removal methods can produce net economic returns when avoided collision losses are taken into account.
- Techniques that nudge large debris objects to prevent collisions often outperform full removal in cost-effectiveness in many modeled scenarios.
- Removing large numbers of smaller debris fragments (centimeter-scale) can meaningfully reduce cumulative risk and, under favorable assumptions, deliver benefits that outweigh costs within operationally relevant timeframes.
- Some controlled reentry approaches for large debris objects – including reusable servicer concepts – may yield net benefits within decades under certain cost assumptions.
The Phase 1 report demonstrated that monetizing debris risk clarifies which remediation strategies yield the greatest economic value relative to doing nothing.
Key Results from the Phase 2 Report
The 2024 “Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris” expanded the scope to include debris mitigation (preventing creation of new debris) and tracking (improving situational awareness), in addition to remediation. It incorporated an enhanced risk model covering debris from the largest tracked objects down to millimeter-scale fragments, and compared more than ten distinct actions for reducing orbital debris risk.
Important findings from this expanded analysis include:
- Rapid post-mission disposal of spacecraft – deorbiting defunct satellites earlier than conventional norms – is identified as a highly cost-effective mitigation strategy, with substantial economic benefits relative to costs over the simulated 30-year timeframe.
- Tracking large debris objects remains one of the most economically attractive actions because investments in tracking infrastructure can significantly reduce collision risk for operational spacecraft.
- Tracking very small debris (millimeter scale) generally does not justify the high infrastructure and operational costs, given the relatively low likelihood of catastrophic impacts by such tiny fragments.
- Many remediation approaches continue to show positive economic value, particularly actions that reduce the frequency of minor collisions or prevent cascades of fragmenting events.
- The economic analysis allows direct comparison of mitigation, tracking, and remediation actions by expressing risks and benefits in dollar terms, revealing that some strategies traditionally viewed as effective may be less cost-efficient than alternatives.
- The study underscores the potential value of portfolio approaches that combine different classes of actions to maximize overall risk reduction relative to expenditure.
Taken together, the Phase 2 results suggest a nuanced understanding of how to allocate resources among tracking, mitigation, and remediation actions to achieve the greatest benefit per dollar spent.
Importance for Policy and Space Operations
By framing debris management in economic terms, NASA’s studies support:
- Evidence-based policy development, providing quantitative comparison of alternative strategies for orbital sustainability.
- Investment decision-making, enabling governments and industry to prioritize actions with documented economic returns.
- Private sector planning, helping commercial operators and debris service providers make informed choices about technology development and market opportunities.
- International coordination, offering a common analytical basis for discussions on debris mitigation standards, data sharing, and cost-sharing arrangements.
Summary
NASA’s cost-benefit analyses – encapsulated in the Phase 1 and Phase 2 OTPS reports – provide an economic foundation for assessing debris management strategies. By quantifying the costs and benefits of mitigation, tracking, and remediation options over realistic timeframes and using consistent monetary metrics, these studies inform decisions aimed at maintaining the long-term sustainability and safety of Earth’s orbital environment.
