Quilty Space forecasts a launch shortfall of approximately 150 medium- and heavy-lift missions through 2030. Published October 29, 2026, its launch-capacity analysis identifies 2028 as the period of greatest constraint.
The estimate combines 113 launches associated with established providers, 12 with emerging providers, and 25 additional rideshare missions. Quilty assessed publicly disclosed backlogs across 10 leading medium-, heavy-, and super-heavy-lift rockets, mapped scheduled missions through 2030, and projected annual capacity using historical performance and industry intelligence.
How Scheduled Flights Determine Available Capacity
A launch backlog records missions assigned to future flights. Comparing those commitments with the number of missions a provider can perform shows how much demand fits into the available schedule. Payload capacity and flight availability describe different parts of that calculation.
As New Space Economy’s explanation of launch-capacity constraints describes, customers purchase access to a particular mission, including its destination, timing, and payload accommodations. A spacecraft’s mass and dimensions determine which vehicles can carry it. Its required orbit and deployment date further define the available choices.
Rideshare allows several customers to divide the capacity of one rocket. Each satellite occupies part of the available mass and volume, with the flight’s orbit and deployment arrangements shared across the mission. This makes a rideshare departure relevant to multiple spacecraft operators at once.
Falcon 9’s Role in the Forecast
Quilty’s model anticipates Falcon 9 retiring from commercial service and continuing to fly U.S. government missions. That assumption adds demand for replacement rideshare capacity to the forecast.
In an interview with Ars Technica, Quilty research director Caleb Henry explained that the calculation addresses commercial and civil demand outside China. He said the increased U.S. military launch requirement was excluded from the calculation because he expected the government to secure continued Falcon launches for priority missions.
The commercial transition connects two customer groups: operators purchasing entire launches and smaller spacecraft operators purchasing shared departures. Quilty’s inclusion of additional rideshare missions captures both forms of demand within its forecast through 2030.
