Synopsis
The report discusses building a typology and definition of “first mover advantage” to support military space planning. Key points:
- Proposes categorizing first moves into four types ranging from long-term to short-term: first to innovate/invest, first to reveal, first to maneuver, first to employ. Provides examples for each.
- Argues first mover advantage should be measured relative to expected outcome if potential first mover instead waited, which depends on adversary actions/responses.
- Advantage accrued from being first to innovate/invest can be transient as adversaries adapt. First to reveal can influence adversary investments but reveal enables countermeasures.
- First to maneuver can deter but may also be perceived as pre-positioning for attack. Implications of first to employ in space need further analysis.
- Adversary perceptions of US first moves need study. China less likely than Russia to take escalatory first action given growing dependence on space.
- Report provides foundation for more analysis on first mover advantage concepts, including generalizable findings across domains and implications of first employment in space.
