The recent downing of a Chinese surveillance balloon that flew across much of the United States has raised concerns about unknown objects traversing American skies. A new report from the RAND Corporation provides insights into where people are reporting sightings of unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs) nationwide.
RAND researchers analyzed over 100,000 reports of UAPs submitted to the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC) from 1998 to 2022. The goal was to identify locations with higher likelihoods of public UAP reports, not to verify the accuracy of individual claims. On average, 1.76 sightings occurred per 100,000 people annually.
Sightings increased from 1998 until peaking in 2014, then declined until 2018 before rising again in 2019-2020. The study identified 751 statistically significant clusters of sightings, containing 14 reports on average. Coastal Washington and Oregon hosted many persistent clusters.
Proximity to military operations areas (MOAs) where flight training occurs had the most consistent association with UAP reports. Areas within 30 km of MOAs had a 49% higher rate of sightings in clusters than those 30-60 km away, suggesting some reports could be authorized military flights.
Relationships between sightings and military bases, weather stations, airports, and population density were inconsistent. Rates were lower within 60 km of airports and more populated areas.
Based on the results, RAND recommends outreach to communities near MOAs to increase awareness of military flight activities. This could help avoid misinterpretations. The authors also advise designing a more rigorous public UAP reporting system.
While the report does not confirm or refute the origins of claimed sightings, it provides valuable insights into spatial patterns. The analysis gives officials a starting point to understand where unexplained reports occur and what factors may influence them. With growing concerns about objects encroaching on American airspace, these findings could help address perceptions versus tangible threats.
