Here are a few key takeaways from the report:
- Deterrence seeks to convince potential adversaries that the costs or risks of an attack outweigh the benefits. The two main strategies are denial (convincing an adversary it cannot achieve its goals militarily) and punishment (threatening severe consequences).
- Key lessons from nuclear deterrence include the importance of credibility, stability, controlling escalation, and the inversion of offense and defense (i.e. attacking nuclear forces is offensive while defending cities is defensive).
- Cyber and space deterrence face challenges like attribution, credibility, proportionality, and escalation control. Responses don’t have to be in-kind but must be carefully calibrated.
- The goal of space deterrence is preventing attacks on satellites and space systems. Success is measured on a spectrum based on requirements at different conflict phases. Complete success is difficult, especially for reversible attacks.
- The report proposes three archetypes of space deterrence strategy: denial-dominant, offense-dominant, and mixed. An integrated approach across these may be most effective.
- Messaging, norms, tailoring to adversaries, and cross-domain effects are all important considerations for space deterrence.
In summary, the report provides a useful framework for thinking about deterrence strategies and challenges in the space domain. A key takeaway is that an adaptive, multifaceted approach is needed for space deterrence, given the complexities involved.
