Synopsis
The document “China and Strategic Instability in Space: Pathways to Peace in an Era of US-China Strategic Competition” by Bruce W. MacDonald, Carla P. Freeman, and Alison McFarland discusses the intensifying competition between the US and China in space. The report highlights three key drivers of instability in space: the entanglement of conventional and nuclear space sensor systems, the testing of kinetic energy direct ascent anti-satellite weapons, and the dramatic growth of constellations of tens and even hundreds of thousands of commercial satellites. China plays a critical role in all three of these issues, reflecting the fact that the infrastructure of space governance has not kept pace with technological change and the burgeoning number of actors in space.
To mitigate the risk of escalation, the report recommends that the US and China ensure their nuclear and conventional warning/tracking assets are disentangled. If the two countries were to work together, they might be able to foster an international commitment to research the impact of large and very large constellations on space security and create a coordination mechanism for satellite orbits.
