Synopsis
The Fermi paradox refers to the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and high estimates for their probability based on the Drake equation. The 2018 paper “Dissolving the Fermi Paradox” argues that the paradox arises from overconfidence in Drake equation parameters. Properly accounting for uncertainty yields a substantial probability we are alone in our galaxy or observable universe.
Their analysis finds a 30-52% chance we are alone in our galaxy and 10-38% chance we are alone in the observable universe based on literature estimates. Using their own assessment of scientific uncertainty, these chances are 52% and 38% respectively.
Updating based on lack of evidence further increases the probability we are alone to 53-99.6% in our galaxy and 39-85% in the observable universe.
The paradox dissolves once uncertainty is properly incorporated. The Fermi observation mainly updates our estimate of the probability of life emerging, not our future prospects.
Related arguments by Tegmark and Lacki also conclude the probability of extraterrestrial intelligence is low given scientific uncertainty and lack of evidence.
The key point is that the Fermi paradox relies on overconfidence in Drake equation parameters. Properly accounting for uncertainty makes an empty galaxy and universe scientifically plausible, dissolving the apparent paradox.
Uncertainty arises from:
- Origin of life timescales and observer selection effects
- Volume of prebiotic substrate and abiogenesis transition rates
- Uncertainty in transitions to complex, intelligent life
Their analysis incorporates:
- Probability distributions for Drake parameters based on literature variation
- Authors’ own estimates of current scientific uncertainty
- Bayesian updating on Fermi observation
Results are robust to distribution shapes and changing uncertainty levels. The observation mainly affects the emergence of life parameter, not future civilization prospects.
Overall, the Fermi paradox stems from false confidence in Drake estimates. Recognizing uncertainty dissolves the paradox by making an empty cosmos unsurprising. An empty universe is scientifically plausible based on current knowledge.
