Synopsis
Here is a summary of the key points from the paper “Global Space Futures – 2050”:
- The paper explores potential scenarios for global space activities in civil, commercial, and national security sectors by 2050. It does not aim to predict a singular future but understand the range of possible futures.
- It discusses the evolution from the first Space Age driven by national governments to the second Space Age characterized by greater private sector leadership.
- It highlights the increasing importance of space to U.S. and allied security and economic interests, and the intensifying competition with China in space.
- Key factors that could drive alternative space futures include: changes in desirable activities, technically possible activities, and affordability.
- Major branch points include: the ability of humans to be self-sustaining in space using local resources, reliance on taxpayer support/subsidies, and the emergence of economically viable activities requiring humans in space.
- Four potential scenarios presented: space settlements, a lunar base like McMurdo Station in Antarctica, space platforms, and symbolic human activities with no permanent settlements.
- The future of space activities will be shaped by the balance between government and commercial demand across civil, commercial and national security interests.
In summary, the paper explores a range of possible global space futures out to 2050, considering key drivers and uncertainties across different sectors. It does not aim to predict one likely future but bound the possibilities and identify indicators of different scenarios emerging.
