Report: International Space Traffic Management: Charting a Course for Long-Term Sustainability (RAND 2023)

Synopsis

The report titled “International Space Traffic Management: Charting a Course for Long-Term Sustainability” by Bruce McClintock and colleagues at the RAND Corporation addresses the critical and evolving issue of space traffic management (STM). As outer space becomes increasingly congested, contested, and competitive, the risks to space safety, security, and sustainability escalate. This research aims to identify lessons for future STM from past approaches to international traffic management or common resource management.

Key points of the report include:

1. Space Traffic Management Challenges: The report outlines the increasing reliance on space for critical services and activities, highlighting the significant risks posed by congested space and the growing number of space objects. The report notes that STM is currently ad hoc and ill-coordinated, likely deteriorating in effectiveness with increasing space congestion.
2. Governance as a Core Problem: The report argues that the core of the STM problem is governance rather than technology. Effective STM requires coordinated communications, data exchange, situational awareness, conflict resolution, and defined processes. The report aims to offer insights and recommendations for developing an international governance framework for STM.
3. Analysis of Other Domains: The report examines maritime and air domains to draw lessons for space traffic management. It also explores governance mechanisms in telecommunications, the internet, and international banking, suggesting their applicability to STM challenges.
4. Key Insights and Recommendations: The research presents key insights, emphasizing the need for an international organization for STM. It recommends steps towards creating an international space traffic management organization (ISTMO), advocating for an agreement at the United Nations and focusing on lessons from other domains.
5. Methodology: The methodology included a review of relevant literature and documents, interviews, workshops with experts, and thematic literature review. Workshops were conducted to refine the findings and contextualize policy recommendations.
6. Limitations and Future Directions: The report acknowledges limitations in its focus on solutions analogous to space and highlights the need for further study on challenges unique to different domains.

In summary, the RAND report provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges and potential solutions for managing traffic in increasingly congested outer space. It highlights the importance of governance, drawing lessons from other domains, and calls for international cooperation and the establishment of an ISTMO to address the growing challenges in space traffic management.