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Report: Guidelines and Metrics for Assessing Space System Cost Estimates (RAND 2008)

Synopsis

The report provides guidelines and metrics to help analysts assess cost estimates for space systems. Key points:

  • Estimating costs for space systems is challenging due to their complexity, long development timelines, and integration of many advanced technologies. Historical data is limited.
  • The report aims to give analysts background on space systems to aid in reviewing cost estimates. It covers typical space missions, system elements, cost drivers, and common issues that lead to cost growth.
  • Crosscheck data is provided on costs of historical spacecraft, subsystems, and components to allow comparison to new program estimates. Guidance is given on using crosschecks effectively.
  • Other topics covered related to estimating space system costs include: small satellites, cost improvement curves, use of commercial off-the-shelf components, and evolutionary acquisition.
  • Descriptions of several cost models are provided that may be useful for space program estimates, including NAFCOM, USCM, and others.

The report is intended as a reference that can be expanded and updated over time as new data and techniques become available to improve space system cost estimation.

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