Synopsis
The paper combines complex systems and social-ecological systems approaches to study how debris mitigation and removal efforts may affect space debris accumulation and the likelihood of reaching “Kessler Syndrome.” Kessler Syndrome refers to a tipping point where orbital debris collisions trigger a runaway feedback loop, creating congestion that can render orbits unusable.
The authors develop a mathematical model examining how debris levels are influenced by:
- Collisions between existing debris
- Debris produced by future launches
- Debris cleanup activities
The model finds that:
- Without intervention, debris congestion may be reached in less than 200 years
- An integrated debris management strategy combining removal and mitigation can avoid this outcome while allowing continued space activities
- Active debris removal in particular may be effective, but current lack of governance and economic incentives could hinder implementation
The paper discusses policy strategies in light of real-world governance, economic, and geopolitical factors. It emphasizes that the global scale and diffuse responsibilities make debris management complex, requiring urgent and multifaceted solutions. Overall, the simple modeling approach is useful for communicating about space sustainability challenges to policymakers and in educational settings.
The paper highlights that a balanced combination of monitoring, mitigation and removal will likely be needed to sustain debris-free orbits. Prompt collective action is essential to avoid debris accumulation reaching unmanageable levels that threaten the usefulness of Earth’s orbits.
