The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment reflects the collective insights of the U.S. Intelligence Community on the most direct, serious threats to the United States in the coming year. The report examines threats from state actors like China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, as well as transnational issues like contested spaces, disruptive technologies, weapons of mass destruction, climate change, health security, migration, terrorism, and organized crime.
State Actors
China is the top threat, seeking to surpass the U.S. in national power and foster global norms favoring its authoritarian system. Russia remains confrontational and aggressive in undermining the rules-based international order. Iran threatens U.S. interests and allies in the Middle East while expanding its nuclear program. North Korea continues to advance its nuclear weapons and missile capabilities.
Conflicts and Fragility
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza risks escalating and spreading instability across the region. Potential interstate conflicts between China and its neighbors, India and Pakistan, and Azerbaijan and Armenia could have global repercussions. Intrastate turmoil in the Balkans, Afghanistan, Sudan, Ethiopia, the Sahel, Haiti and Venezuela threaten regional stability.
Transnational Issues
Rapid advances in disruptive technologies like AI and biotechnology are outpacing the ability to manage risks. Digital authoritarianism and transnational repression by states are increasing. The spread of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons remains a persistent danger. Climate change is exacerbating humanitarian crises and geopolitical tensions. Health security is threatened by infectious diseases and eroding global health governance. Migration flows are straining many countries. Transnational crime and terrorism continue to evolve and expand, especially in unstable regions.
Conclusion
The 2024 threat landscape is marked by intensifying great power competition, accelerating technological change, and compounding transnational challenges that interact in complex ways. Effective responses will require nuanced understanding of the threats and opportunities for cooperation in mitigating risks to U.S. national security interests.
