From Deterrence to Direct War | New Space Economy

Infographic explaining the seven steps from a security incident through Article 4 consultations and Article 5 deliberation to allied assistance, with possible U.S. contributions listed at right.

ARTICLE 4 TO ARTICLE 5

Infographic outlines 10 possible pathways in a U.S.–Russia confrontation, covering warnings, NATO decisions, direct fighting, conflict across cyber and space, military reinforcement, nuclear risk, and possible outcomes.

FROM DETERRENCE TO DIRECT WAR

Infographic describing a scenario in which a conventional U.S.-Russia war progresses through seven labeled stages toward possible nuclear escalation, while listing factors that push or restrain escalation and stating that the scenario is not a prediction.

THE NUCLEAR SHADOW

Infographic describing a hypothetical U.S.-Russia conflict spreading across land, air, sea, cyberspace, space, undersea infrastructure, and electromagnetic warfare, including impacts on military operations, civilian systems, and strategic deterrence.

THE WAR WOULD NOT STAY ON THE BATTLEFIELD

Infographic summarizing a reported August 2026 Moscow visit by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, his meeting with Sergei Naryshkin, public statements about the contact, and the stated implications for managing U.S.–Russia escalation risk.

WHY THE CIA DIRECTOR WENT TO MOSCOW

Infographic explaining how a limited incident involving Russia and NATO could escalate through attribution, alliance consultation, military response, Russian retaliation, and direct confrontation, with examples of possible triggers and factors affecting United States involvement.

FROM UKRAINE TO NATO

Infographic explaining four possible outcomes of a U.S.–Russia confrontation, including a contained incident, regional war, prolonged conventional war, and nuclear escalation, with listed triggers, off-ramps, and influencing factors.

HOW DOES IT END?

Infographic outlining competing U.S. military demands in Europe, the Middle East, and global commitments, including shared resources, escalation pressures, and factors that may restrain escalation.

A TWO-THEATER CRISIS

Infographic explaining how NATO and Russian reinforcement actions could be interpreted as preparation for offensive operations, with listed escalation risks, diplomatic off-ramps, and a factual note about NATO battlegroups on its eastern flank.

THE REINFORCEMENT RACE

Infographic summarizing a hypothetical limited provocation against NATO, including possible actions, motives, warning signs, escalation stages, and competing risks for the alliance’s response.

THE BALTIC TEST