Synopsis
The report discusses concepts of deterrence and how they can be applied to space strategy. It aims to provide a framework for deterring actions that could render space systems ineffective.
Here is a summary of the key points from the report:
Deterrence Historiography and Theory
- The concept of deterrence has existed for millennia, with early examples like the fortifications of Jericho intended to deter attack.
- Key developments influencing modern deterrence theory include the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars, the rise of capital ships and airpower, and the advent of nuclear weapons.
- There are two main strands of classical deterrence theory:
- Structural deterrence theory focuses on the cost of conflict. It states that deterrence works best when the costs of war are high for all sides.
- Decision-theoretic deterrence theory examines deterrence through the choices of actors. It highlights the need for credible threats and observable capability.
- The two main forms of deterrence are punishment (retaliation) and denial (resistance). Both can interact to strengthen or weaken deterrence.
US Deterrence Policy History
- US deterrence policy evolved from massive retaliation to flexible response. The latter emphasized having conventional and nuclear options across a spectrum of conflict.
- Politics, budgets, and adapting to the strategic environment drove shifts in US deterrence policy.
Militarization of Space and Strategic Principles
- The report examines the history of space militarization from the 1940s Cold War beginnings to the 1990s post-Soviet era.
- Relevant strategic principles from theorists like Mahan and Corbett are discussed. These highlight concepts like space lines of communication, orbital positions, and balancing military and economic elements.
Proposed Space Deterrence Framework
- The framework incorporates denial and punishment strategies across four areas – diplomatic, information, military, and economic.
- It emphasizes creating a strong denial mechanism, complemented by credible and ambiguous punishment threats.
- Deploying forces at strategic orbital locations is suggested to enable denial and bolster cross-domain punishment credibility.
Summary
The report ultimately argues for a multifaceted, whole-of-government approach to space deterrence. This includes coordinated use of various instruments of national power and cooperation with allies and partners.
