As humanity’s presence in space continues to grow, the need for comprehensive space domain awareness (SDA) has become increasingly critical. SDA enables an understanding of the space operating environment and perceived threats, allowing both military and commercial operators to safely navigate the orbital landscape, avoid debris, and maintain the integrity of their assets. With space now recognized as a warfighting domain, the United States and its allies must prioritize SDA capabilities to prevent conflict and maintain superiority in this contested realm.
The Evolving Space Environment
The current space environment is a complex tapestry, with approximately 9,500 active satellites and over 100 million pieces of mostly untracked debris. This congestion is only set to increase, with projections suggesting that the SpaceX Starlink constellation alone will require 1 million conjunction avoidance maneuvers by 2028. The proliferation of satellites and debris not only complicates the task of providing accurate situational awareness but also heightens the risk of collisions and the need for robust SDA capabilities.
Moreover, the space domain has become a theater for great power competition, with both Russia and China identifying U.S. space dependency as an exploitable vulnerability. These adversaries have made offensive counterspace a key component of their future warfighting strategies, underscoring the urgency for the United States to secure its space assets through advanced SDA technologies and practices.
The SDA Technology Stack
SDA is accomplished through a sophisticated technology stack that includes a variety of sensor modalities, compute resources, AI/ML and analytics, visualization technologies, and applications and services. These sensors can be both ground and space based, providing a comprehensive picture of the space environment when combined.
Ground-based SDA sensors include radars, optical telescopes, and passive radio frequency (RF) systems. Space-based sensors, typically optical, infrared, or RF, are sometimes deployed on maneuverable platforms to increase the fidelity of the collected data. Ongoing technology development focuses on creating a more complete picture of the sky and making sense of it more rapidly, with future sensor improvements aimed at tracking smaller and increasingly maneuverable resident space objects (RSOs).
However, as U.S. Space Force Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman notes, challenges persist in data processing times and the ability to transform raw data into actionable information. Improvements in automation and AI across the SDA architecture will be important in streamlining the Department of Defense’s (DOD) tracking and interpretation capabilities.
Strategic Investments in SDA
Recognizing the critical importance of SDA, the U.S. Space Force (USSF) requested $612 million in FY24 for space tracking programs, ground-based radar, optical telescopes, space-based surveillance capabilities in geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) and beyond (xGEO), commercial data buys, and compute and analytics. This represents a $120 million increase from FY22, underscoring the high priority placed on the SDA mission.
Commercial capabilities could augment the U.S. government’s budget and address technological pain points, as evidenced by efforts to create a commercial services budget line by 2025 and the recent unveiling of the SDA Tools, Applications, and Processing (TAP) Lab. Partnerships with the private sector will be essential in filling gaps in orbital coverage and acquiring unclassified insights to speed decision-making.
The Future of SDA
As the space environment becomes increasingly congested and contested, innovative SDA offerings will be crucial in eliminating sensor coverage gaps, reducing insight lag times, and advancing our understanding of the xGEO operational environment. Ideally, space-faring nations will collaborate to establish an international arbiter capable of regulating and directing space traffic automatically through a cloud-based system. Platforms may also be required to have autonomous conjunction avoidance capabilities to navigate the crowded orbital landscape safely.
In the near future, commercial capabilities will play a vital role in filling orbital coverage gaps from ground assets. The loosening of regulatory restrictions on non-Earth imaging (NEI) will enable many of these ground assets to autonomously tip and cue, working with other commercial NEI platforms to inspect anomalous pattern-of-life detections with greater fidelity. Defense customers will leverage these partnerships to acquire unclassified insights and accelerate decision-making, with the goal of achieving complete SDA coverage by 2026.
To ensure U.S. safety and stability in space, the development of new sensors, particularly space-based ones, will be essential for maintaining SDA beyond GEO. Prototype missions to xGEO and dedicated sensor developments will come online to study complex orbital mechanics and further enhance the military’s space-based SDA capabilities.
Emerging Innovators in SDA
The SDA ecosystem is witnessing the emergence of innovative startups addressing various aspects of the space awareness challenge. Companies like LeoLabs are building radars and optical telescopes to decrease current coverage gaps, while HEO and Albedo are developing NEI capabilities to capture images of RSOs for commercial and government customers.
As space becomes more crowded, conjunction threats will become more prevalent, creating opportunities for unique solutions such as Kayhan Space’s space traffic coordination and safety offerings. True Anomaly is building maneuverable platforms that can inspect other spacecraft at close distances, further enhancing SDA capabilities.
However, the commercial SDA outlook remains uncertain due to unanswered regulatory questions, the dominance of defense prime contractors, and the government’s free public service. Startups that thrive will likely be those whose SDA business is secondary or uniquely valuable, with the market likely supporting only a few commercial players in the long term.
Summary
As humanity’s presence in space continues to expand, the importance of robust space domain awareness cannot be overstated. SDA is critical for ensuring the safety and security of both military and commercial assets in the increasingly congested and contested orbital environment. The United States must prioritize investments in advanced SDA technologies, foster partnerships with commercial innovators, and collaborate with allies to maintain superiority in this vital domain.
By leveraging cutting-edge sensors, AI/ML capabilities, and visualization technologies, the U.S. can create a comprehensive picture of the space environment and respond effectively to emerging threats. The development of autonomous systems and international collaboration will also be crucial in managing the growing complexity of the orbital landscape.
As the great power competition extends to the final frontier, the United States must remain at the forefront of SDA innovation to safeguard its interests and preserve stability in space. Through strategic investments, public-private partnerships, and a commitment to technological advancement, the U.S. can secure its position as a leader in space domain awareness and ensure a safe and prosperous future for all space-faring nations.
