A Chinese Long March 6A rocket’s upper stage has fragmented into a cloud of over 700 pieces of space debris, raising concerns about the growing issue of orbital debris. The rocket, which launched on August 6, 2024, successfully delivered 18 satellites into orbit for the Thousand Sails megaconstellation before the breakup occurred.

Debris Poses Risk to Satellites and Spacecraft

The rocket is believed to have disintegrated at an altitude of approximately 503 miles (810 kilometers) above Earth. The resulting debris cloud poses a significant risk to low-Earth orbit constellations situated below 497 miles (800 kilometers). The International Space Station, which orbits at around 254 miles (408 kilometers), is not currently threatened by the debris.

Experts estimate that the debris could remain in orbit for several years, with some fragments potentially lingering for decades. The exact duration is difficult to determine without knowing the shapes and sizes of the debris pieces. Any object caught in the path of these high-speed fragments could face dire consequences.

Cause of Breakup Unclear

The cause of the rocket stage’s breakup remains unclear at this time. Possible explanations include:

• Collision with another object in orbit
• Onboard explosion of unused rocket fuel
• Malfunction related to the spacecraft’s propulsion system

Further analysis is needed to determine the precise cause of the incident.

Growing Concern Over Orbital Debris

This event marks the second time a Long March 6A rocket stage has fragmented in orbit, with a similar incident occurring in November 2022. The increasing frequency of such breakups highlights the urgent need to address the issue of space debris.

Currently, there are nearly 1,000 defunct rocket bodies in low-Earth orbit, and this number is expected to rise as more nations pursue space ambitions. Experts emphasize the importance of following existing space debris mitigation protocols and developing robust space domain awareness capabilities to track and catalog objects in orbit.

Potential Impact on Thousand Sails Megaconstellation

The Thousand Sails megaconstellation, also known as the G60 Starlink constellation, aims to provide global internet access with a network of over 14,000 satellites. The project is supported by the Chinese government and is seen as a way to secure orbital slots and frequencies while providing national internet coverage and data security.

However, if future Long March 6A launches experience similar debris-generating events, it could significantly contribute to the space debris population in low-Earth orbit. This would increase the risk of collisions and pose a threat to the sustainability of the megaconstellation project.

As China continues to pursue its space ambitions, with plans to launch around 100 times in 2024, addressing the issue of orbital debris will be crucial to ensure the safety and long-term viability of its space endeavors.