The World’s First Official POTENTIAL ASTEROID IMPACT NOTIFICATION

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The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) is a global collaboration dedicated to detecting, tracking, and assessing near-Earth objects (NEOs) that could pose a risk to the planet. Established following United Nations recommendations, the network consists of observatories, space agencies, and research institutions that share data and conduct impact probability calculations. When a detected asteroid meets certain risk thresholds, IAWN issues alerts to international organizations, including the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), which coordinate possible response strategies.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station operated by the University of Hawai’i in Chile. Subsequent observations confirmed its trajectory, and archival images from December 25 and 26 provided additional data points. With a size estimated between 40 and 90 meters (130–300 feet), the asteroid falls within the category of objects that could cause significant localized damage if an impact were to occur.

Initial calculations by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the European Space Agency’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (NEOCC) place the probability of impact at 1.3% for December 22, 2032. This means there is a 98.7% chance the asteroid will pass by Earth without incident. While the likelihood of impact remains low, the uncertainty surrounding the asteroid’s orbit justifies continued monitoring.

If 2024 YR4 were to impact Earth, the potential impact zone spans a broad corridor, including the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. This range reflects uncertainties in the asteroid’s trajectory, which will be refined with further observations.

In the event of an impact, the level of destruction would depend on the asteroid’s size and the location of the collision. If the object is closer to the upper estimate of 90 meters, the resulting explosion could generate a blast radius extending up to 50 kilometers from the point of impact. This could cause severe damage to infrastructure and pose risks to human populations in affected areas. If the asteroid were to land in the ocean, the primary concern would be atmospheric shock waves rather than a tsunami, given the relatively small size of the object.

Observatories will continue to monitor 2024 YR4 through early April 2025. At that point, it will move beyond the reach of Earth-based telescopes and will not be observable again until June 2028, when it returns to a position closer to Earth. The next period of observation will provide improved trajectory predictions, potentially raising or lowering the estimated probability of impact.

By the time the 2025 observation window closes, impact probability estimates could shift in two directions. The probability might increase significantly if new data suggests a trajectory closer to Earth. It could also decrease below the 1% threshold, eliminating the need for continued high-priority tracking.

While the probability of impact remains low, organizations responsible for planetary defense are taking a measured approach. IAWN and its partner institutions will continue refining calculations and updating international agencies as new data becomes available. Possible response options include further tracking and analysis to refine impact risk assessments and provide a clearer picture of the asteroid’s trajectory. If the risk increases, planetary defense groups may consider mitigation strategies such as kinetic impactors or gravity tractors. Governments and emergency response agencies in potential impact zones will be informed so that they can develop contingency plans.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a newly detected near-Earth object with a small chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. Current estimates suggest a 1.3% probability of collision, with a wide impact corridor spanning multiple continents and ocean regions. While the likelihood of impact is low, continued monitoring is essential to refine trajectory models. Observations will resume in 2028, at which point more precise calculations will determine if further action is necessary. In the meantime, international agencies remain vigilant, prepared to respond if the risk level changes.

Last update on 2025-12-19 / Affiliate links / Images from Amazon Product Advertising API