An Analysis of Novaspace’s Market Intelligence Portfolio for the Global Space Sector

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Specialized

Novaspace stands as a global leader in consulting and market intelligence, specializing in the intricate and rapidly evolving space and satellite sectors. With a legacy spanning over four decades, the firm has established itself as a trusted partner for both public and private entities around the world, guiding strategic decision-making in a high-stakes industry. The foundation of its analysis rests on a rigorous and continuous program of data gathering, proprietary databases, and advanced forecasting models. This methodical approach, refined over years of engagement with industry leaders and government officials, underpins a portfolio of intelligence reports that have become indispensable reference tools for the sector’s most influential players.

These reports offer a blend of quantitative and qualitative analysis, featuring detailed revenue forecasts, examinations of industry trends, assessments of key players, and strategic evaluations. By leveraging millions of data points, Novaspace provides insights that empower organizations to navigate market complexities and identify emerging opportunities. This analysis provides a detailed examination of Novaspace’s market intelligence offerings, structured according to the firm’s primary market categories. It explores the key findings and forecasts within each report, based upon publicly available information, connecting them to reveal the overarching trends that define the modern space economy. From the surge in government defense spending to the disruptive impact of new satellite architectures, this document synthesizes Novaspace’s extensive research into a coherent narrative of an industry in transformation.

Government Space Programs and Strategic Initiatives

The activities of national governments and international organizations form a foundational pillar of the global space economy. Government investment not only funds ambitious missions of exploration and scientific discovery but also serves as a primary driver of the defense and security markets, acting as an anchor customer that underpins much of the commercial industrial base. Novaspace’s suite of reports dedicated to this segment provides a detailed map of this landscape, tracking budgets, outlining strategic priorities, and analyzing the world’s most significant government-led programs.

A central theme emerges from this collection of analyses: a powerful and sustained surge in government space spending. This increase reached a record $135 billion in 2024, a figure that underscores the growing strategic importance of space. This funding is not evenly distributed; a significant and growing portion is directed toward defense and security applications. This shift is a direct response to a changing orbital environment. The very success of the commercial space industry, particularly the deployment of large mega-constellations in low Earth orbit, has created a more congested and contested domain. What was once a frontier is now a critical infrastructure environment, and with that comes new vulnerabilities.

This new reality has elevated the importance of Space Situational and Domain Awareness (SSA/SDA). These capabilities, which involve monitoring objects in orbit, are no longer just for scientific tracking of debris; they are now a national security necessity. Governments are investing billions to protect their sovereign assets—from communication and navigation satellites to intelligence-gathering platforms—from both accidental collisions and potential adversarial threats. The growth of the commercial sector has a direct causal effect on the expansion of the government security sector.

Another key development is the adoption of commercial-sector strategies by government agencies. The traditional model of developing large, expensive, and monolithic satellites over decade-long timelines is giving way to a more agile approach. As detailed in Novaspace’s Major Space Programs Tracker, flagship initiatives like the U.S. Space Development Agency’s layered architecture now favor the deployment of iterative, modular constellations. This “tranche-and-layer” strategy, pioneered by commercial firms like SpaceX, allows for the rapid insertion of new technology with each successive launch, builds greater resilience into the overall system, and creates a more consistent and predictable stream of procurement opportunities for the industrial supply chain. This represents a fundamental shift in how governments are building and maintaining their presence in space.

Government Space Programs

At the core of Novaspace’s government-focused intelligence is the flagship Government Space Programsreport. Now in its 24th edition, this annual publication is a foundational economic and strategic assessment of public spending on space activities worldwide. It is built on a continuous, year-round data-gathering exercise that began in the early 1990s, making it one of the most extensive and long-running analyses of its kind. The report provides a comprehensive analysis and benchmark of all public spending and space programs, covering more than 90 countries and international organizations, including entities like the European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Union (EU).

The report’s structure is designed to provide both high-level global trends and granular detail on individual national efforts. For each of the 90+ programs profiled, the report offers an in-depth look at policy and strategy objectives, governance structures, and detailed breakdowns of space expenditures. It distinguishes between civil and defense space programs and provides mission roadmaps that outline past activities and future plans. This analysis is supported by a massive database containing thousands of data points on annual space budgets stretching back to 1990, with forecasts extending through the next decade.

Each country profile includes a factsheet with high-level takeaways and key metrics, allowing for quick and reliable cross-country comparisons. These metrics include the total space budget for the current year, the top three application areas of spending, space spending per capita, and space spending as a percentage of GDP. This standardized data helps answer fundamental questions for anyone trying to understand the global landscape: Which countries are investing in space? What are their key priorities? How are they balancing civil and defense goals? And which regions are poised to lead global space-based expenditure in the coming years?

The 24th edition of the report illuminates an expanding government space sector, capturing a total market opportunity that reached a record $135 billion in 2024. This record-high investment signals a significant near-term market opportunity for the space industry, with governments fueling demand across a wide range of applications. The report breaks down spending into key categories, including:

• Earth Observation: Satellites for electro-optical and radar observation, used for both operational and research purposes, as well as defense intelligence.
• Satellite Communications: Satellites providing services for voice, data, internet, and broadcasting.
• Navigation: Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and their augmentation systems.
• Security: Satellites for space situational awareness (SSA), missile early warning, signals intelligence, and space weather monitoring.
• Space Exploration: Missions to the Moon, Mars, and deep space, as well as astronomy and astrophysics.
• Spaceflight: Development and operation of orbital infrastructure and human transportation vehicles.

All data is made accessible through Novaspace’s Digital Platform, which allows users to download the full report and associated Excel files, enabling them to customize and visualize specific datasets to meet their own analytical needs.

Major Space Programs Tracker

While the Government Space Programs report provides a broad overview of global spending, the Major Space Programs Tracker offers a deep dive into the world’s largest, most complex, and strategically significant government-led satellite initiatives. This newer, biannual market intelligence report focuses on a handful of flagship programs that are shaping the future of space infrastructure, including the U.S. Space Development Agency’s (SDA) Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture, Europe’s IRIS² secure connectivity constellation, and the Copernicus Earth Observation program.

The report’s debut spotlights a defining trend in modern space architecture: the accelerating shift away from traditional, monolithic satellite designs toward iterative, “tranche-and-layer” deployment strategies. This modular approach, first popularized by commercial constellations like Starlink, is now being enthusiastically adopted by governments. By building and deploying satellites in distinct batches, or tranches, agencies can incorporate the latest technological advancements and lessons learned into each new generation. This results in constellations that are more adaptable, resilient, and future-ready. The strategy supports faster innovation cycles, mitigates the risks associated with deploying an entire system at once, and better positions programs to address evolving mission requirements.

Each edition of the Major Space Programs Tracker explores several key facets of these initiatives, offering a strategic lens into how they are structured and how they are evolving. The report is designed to support informed decision-making for stakeholders across the industry by providing clarity on:

• Program Architecture: A detailed breakdown of the technical and operational design of each program.
• Market Addressability: An analysis of the commercial opportunities presented by the program, identifying which parts of the industrial base are best positioned to compete for contracts.
• Contract Awards: Information on contracts that have been awarded, offering insight into the developing supply chains.
• Governance: An examination of the management and oversight structures of these complex, often multi-national, programs.
• Recent Developments: Updates on the latest progress, milestones, and strategic shifts within each initiative.

By providing this focused analysis, the report helps stakeholders understand the intricate supply chains forming around these massive programs, monitor investment trends, and anticipate future opportunities. A free update is included six months after each release, ensuring the information remains current in a rapidly changing environment.

Prospects for Space Exploration

The human drive to explore is a powerful catalyst for technological innovation and international cooperation, and it commands a significant portion of global space budgets. Novaspace’s Prospects for Space Explorationreport, now in its 5th edition, delivers a detailed strategic and economic forecast for these activities, charting the future of humanity’s journey into the cosmos through 2034. Built on extensive research and a proprietary space exploration database, the report provides precise mission forecasts, government spending projections, and in-depth analysis of both government and commercial initiatives.

The report projects that global government investment in space exploration will rise from $27 billion in 2024 to nearly $31 billion by 2034. This growth is primarily driven by ambitious lunar exploration programs, such as NASA’s Artemis program, and complex missions like the international effort to return samples from Mars. Over the next decade, the report forecasts more than 850 planned missions, including nearly 330 missions to the Moon.

The analysis is structured across five distinct space exploration domains, providing a comprehensive view of the entire field:

1. LEO Human Spaceflight: Covering activities on the International Space Station and the development of commercial LEO destinations.
2. Moon Exploration: A detailed look at transportation, communications, mobility, infrastructure, and resource utilization activities in cislunar space.
3. Mars Exploration: Analysis of robotic and future human missions to the Red Planet.
4. Other Deep Space Exploration: Missions to other planets, asteroids, and comets within our solar system.
5. Astronomy, Astrophysics, and Heliophysics: Space-based telescopes and observatories studying the universe.

For stakeholders, the report provides actionable insights into the evolving exploration landscape. It includes detailed forecast databases covering both government and commercial missions, as well as government exploration budgets across the major spacefaring nations. It also offers strategic profiles of 11 leading national space programs, detailing their policies, priorities, and expenditures.

A key feature of the latest edition is a new premium chapter that provides a sensitivity analysis of NASA’s Artemis program. This analysis models potential restructuring scenarios, their financial outcomes, and the implications for international partnerships, offering a critical tool for understanding the future of the world’s flagship exploration initiative. The report is available in two formats: a Classic Edition providing strategic analysis and a 20-year government funding database, and a Premium Edition that adds a full mission forecast database and the exclusive Artemis sensitivity analysis.

Satellite Communications for Defense and Security

Secure and resilient satellite communications (satcom) are indispensable for modern military operations, providing the backbone for command and control, intelligence dissemination, and logistical support across the globe. The Satellite Communications for Defense and Security report from Novaspace serves as an essential tool for understanding the dynamics of this critical market. It presents an in-depth analysis of military satcom trends, along with the supply and demand for broadband satellite communications used by military forces.

The report’s value lies in its highly detailed and quantitative demand analysis. It provides comprehensive forecasts of the Fixed Satellite Service (FSS) market demand from military forces, categorized across multiple dimensions to give a granular picture of the market. This includes breakdowns by:

• Region of Origin: Demand is analyzed for forces from the United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, the Americas, and Africa.
• Type of Force: The report distinguishes between the connectivity needs of military bases, land forces, naval vessels, manned aircraft, and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs).
• Area of Deployment: Demand is mapped across numerous global regions and oceans, providing insight into where connectivity is most needed.
• Orbit and Frequency: The analysis is segmented by orbit type—geostationary (GEO) and non-geostationary (NGSO)—and by key military and commercial frequency bands (X, Ku, mil-Ka, and Ka).

This demand analysis is complemented by a strategic outlook on the market, which covers key drivers, the structure of the value chain, and major contracts that are shaping the landscape. On the supply side, the report provides an overview of the total current and future capacity in the critical X-band and mil-Ka bands. It also features profiles of selected military and government satcom (Mil-Govsatcom) systems, such as the U.S. Wideband Global SATCOM (WGS) and Europe’s IRIS², alongside profiles of leading commercial systems, including Starlink, mPOWER, and OneWeb, whose services are increasingly being adopted by defense users.

This comprehensive resource is designed for a wide range of stakeholders, from government organizations and satellite operators to service providers and investors, empowering decision-makers to navigate this vital and complex domain with confidence.

Space Defense and Security

As space evolves into a fully operational warfighting domain, recognized for its strategic value and potential for conflict, global government spending on space defense and security has reached historic highs. Novaspace’s Space Defense and Security report provides an in-depth analysis of the trends, dynamics, and demand drivers shaping this rapidly expanding market. It assesses global government expenditures on space defense across 10 distinct capability domains and forecasts a 160% surge in the launch rate for defense and dual-use satellites over the coming decade, driven by an increasingly fragmented geopolitical context.

In 2023, worldwide government expenditures in this area reached over $58 billion. The United States led with $38.9 billion, followed by China ($8.8 billion), Russia ($2.6 billion), and France ($1.3 billion). These nations, along with other significant investors like Japan and the United Kingdom, are bolstering their defense readiness as space becomes more contested, congested, and competitive. Of this total government spending, an estimated $40 billion was contracted to the commercial industry for the provision of crucial capabilities.

The report details these expenditures and industry revenues across key capability domains, with Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) accounting for the largest share at 32% ($18.8 billion), followed by Secured Satellite Communications at 18% ($10.6 billion). Other significant areas of investment include Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) and Space Domain Awareness (SDA).

The first edition of this report offers a comprehensive overview of these global trends, providing consolidated space defense budgets per country and region. It also analyzes the main technological and market trends, government requirements, and threats and vulnerabilities associated with each capability. For premium subscribers, the report offers detailed national profiles for the top eight space defense nations and an extensive Excel database covering government expenditures and industry revenues for over 50 countries. This allows users to deep-dive into the dynamic world of space defense and security, empowering governments, commercial players, and investment organizations to make the strategic decisions key to success.

Space Situational and Domain Awareness

The explosive growth in satellite deployments, particularly the rise of mega-constellations in lower Earth orbits, has made the space environment more crowded than ever before. This surge in traffic brings with it a rising risk of orbital collisions, making the tracking and monitoring of objects in space a matter of urgent importance for the entire space economy. Novaspace’s inaugural Space Situational and Domain Awareness (SSDA) Market Intelligence Report provides critical insights into how governments and commercial players are responding to this challenge.

The report tracks the rising urgency of space safety, analyzing a projected $6.2 billion in global investment focused on technological advancements and emerging strategies to monitor and protect the orbital environment. With critical failures and collision events becoming a matter of “when, not if,” the entire space economy now relies on situational awareness data to support sustainable orbital activities. This first-of-its-kind report is designed to support decision-makers across government, industry, and regulatory bodies as they prepare for the next era of orbital operations.

The report answers essential questions about this burgeoning sector, including the size of the SSDA market for data and services, the main institutional programs active in the field, and the leading commercial providers globally. It provides a business-critical assessment of key technology, ecosystem, and market developments, including:

• Sensor Overviews: An analysis of both ground-based sensors (radar, optics, RF, laser) and space-based sensors, detailing their types, locations, and operators.
• Global Government Investment: A breakdown of total government investment in both civil and defense SSDA programs by nation.
• Commercial Market Assessment: An evaluation of total global spending on commercial SSDA data and services, along with profiles of leading commercial suppliers.
• Ecosystem Analysis: A look at the entire SSDA ecosystem, including commercial stakeholders and institutional players from both the civil and defense sectors.

The report is available in a Classic Version that provides a strategic overview and analysis, and a Premium Version that adds detailed databases of global ground-based and space-based SSDA sensors. This strategic intelligence is necessary for any organization seeking revenue growth and competitive advantage in this vital sector.

Earth Observation Market Intelligence

The Earth Observation (EO) sector is a dynamic and rapidly transforming field within the broader space economy. It involves the use of satellites to gather imagery and data about the planet’s physical, chemical, and biological systems. This information has a vast range of applications, from climate monitoring and agricultural management to urban planning and national security. Novaspace offers two distinct but complementary reports that cover the entire EO value chain, from the manufacturing and launch of satellites (the upstream market) to the provision of data and analytical services (the downstream market).

Analysis of these reports reveals a market that is effectively bifurcating. The upstream segment, which involves building and launching the satellites themselves, is becoming increasingly shaped by the priorities of government and defense agencies. In an era of heightened geopolitical instability, there is a growing demand for sovereign EO assets—satellites that are owned and controlled by a single nation for its own security and strategic purposes. This trend is accelerating procurement cycles and favoring the development of more agile, cost-effective, and modular satellite systems. This government-driven demand is fueling a boom in satellite launches, creating a massive new supply of raw data.

This data deluge is having a significant effect on the downstream market. As the volume of available satellite imagery grows, the raw data itself is becoming a commodity, driving down its price per unit. Consequently, the real economic value is migrating away from simply selling pixels and toward selling answers. The most successful commercial ventures in the downstream sector are those that can leverage sophisticated tools like artificial intelligence and cloud computing to process vast quantities of data and transform it into actionable intelligence that solves specific problems for customers.

A key technological enabler for this entire transformation is miniaturization. Advances in electronics and sensor technology have made it possible to deploy powerful imaging systems on smaller, more affordable satellite platforms, often referred to as smallsats. This trend, combined with the emergence of new operational concepts like Very Low Earth Orbit (VLEO) constellations, is set to further disrupt the competitive landscape. VLEO systems can offer higher resolution and lower latency than traditional satellites, which will further commoditize raw data and place an even greater premium on advanced analytics. The upstream defense boom is directly causing the downstream commercial pivot to analytics, reshaping the business models of the entire industry.

Earth Observation Satellite Systems

The Earth Observation Satellite Systems report, now in its 18th edition, provides a global assessment of the EO upstream market, focusing on the manufacturing and launch of EO satellites. It offers business-critical insights into the progression of this market, which is positioned to reach a combined value of $182.6 billion through 2034, with $139.0 billion in manufacturing revenue and $43.6 billion in launch services.

The report forecasts that 5,770 EO satellites will be launched by 2034, a dramatic increase driven by the growing demand for country-level autonomy in space. As geopolitical instability drives interest in sovereign EO assets, defense and civil government satellites are poised to lead new deployments, overtaking the commercial sector in terms of market influence. U.S. agencies, for example, are increasingly prioritizing data from internal, defense-operated assets over commercial sources, a trend that is driving the move toward secure, sovereign space capabilities.

This growth is enabled by the miniaturization of technologies that support the deployment of smallsat constellations in various orbits, carrying an increasing range of sensors. The report highlights that 2025 marks the start of the VLEO and Very Very High Resolution (VVHR) era, which is set to disrupt competition going forward. This shift is also changing design priorities; performance, longevity, and cost-efficiency now outweigh mass as key considerations. As a result, the market is shifting toward more complex and diversified missions.

The report provides a detailed forecast of both satellite demand and manufacturing and launch activity, with data broken down across six world regions. The analysis assesses the market across several key metrics, including:

• Satellite Ownership: Civil government, unclassified defense, and commercial programs.
• Satellite Mass Category: From large satellites to smallsats.
• EO Mission and Payload: Covering a wide range of sensor types, including multispectral, hyperspectral, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), greenhouse gas monitoring, and signals intelligence (ELINT/RF).
• Launch Provider and Orbit Type: Tracking which companies are launching these satellites and to which orbits.

The report includes a proprietary database of all EO satellites launched over the past decade and those to be launched over the next, with extensive characterization information for each satellite. This makes it an essential tool for satellite manufacturers, operators, payload providers, and national space agencies.

Earth Observation Data and Services Market

While the previous report focuses on the hardware, the Earth Observation Data and Services Market report provides a 360-degree view of the downstream sector, delivering a global assessment of the commercial demand for satellite-based imagery and value-added services. Currently valued at $5 billion, Novaspace projects the commercial EO market to exceed $8 billion by 2033, with the services segment growing from $3.1 billion to $4.9 billion during that period.

The report identifies defense contracts and advanced EO products as the critical drivers behind this sustained expansion. Defense-related EO revenues alone are expected to grow by $1.1 billion by 2033, supported by increasing budgets and a push for higher-resolution capabilities to meet real-time monitoring needs. At the same time, EO services are increasingly leveraging cloud computing and artificial intelligence for automated satellite image analysis. These innovations are enabling large-scale monitoring and timely decision-making for a wide range of applications in defense, sustainability, and security. Market growth isn’t just about replacing traditional aerial systems; it’s about scaling up monitoring capabilities to provide actionable insights over time.

The report offers a detailed analysis of supply-demand dynamics, pricing strategies, and regulatory factors. It examines trends across eight regional markets and nine vertical applications, which are further broken down into 32 sub-applications. These verticals include:

• Defense
• Natural Resources Monitoring
• Infrastructure
• Environment
• Energy
• Location-Based Services
• Disaster Management
• Maritime
• Finance

The analysis also highlights key regional dynamics. North America remains the largest EO market, generating 44% of global revenues in 2023, followed by Europe at 22%. the fastest growth is projected in Asia, which is expected to account for 23% of the market by 2033. This edition also broadens its analysis of the industrial ecosystem, reviewing 130 leading and emerging value-added service providers selected from over 2,000 globally identified companies, providing critical insights for understanding the evolving EO landscape.

Satellite Communication Sector Analysis

The satellite communication (Satcom) sector is in the midst of a historic transformation, arguably the most significant since the dawn of the space age. This disruption is driven by new technologies, innovative orbital architectures, and aggressive business models that are fundamentally reshaping the economics of connectivity from space. Novaspace’s extensive portfolio of reports on this sector provides a comprehensive guide to these changes, covering every major vertical from consumer broadband and video to specialized mobility markets like aviation and maritime.

The single most important trend defining the modern Satcom market is a fundamental economic shift from an environment of capacity scarcity to one of capacity abundance. For decades, satellite bandwidth was a limited and expensive resource, carefully allocated from a few dozen large satellites in geostationary (GEO) orbit. Today, this paradigm has been shattered by the deployment of massive constellations of High Throughput Satellites (HTS) in Non-Geostationary Orbits (NGSO), particularly Low Earth Orbit (LEO). This shift has been almost single-handedly pioneered and dominated by SpaceX’s Starlink constellation, which has added more capacity to orbit in a few years than the rest of the industry did in decades.

This massive influx of new, low-cost capacity has had a predictable and significant effect: a dramatic drop in pricing. This price disruption is forcing a cascade of technological and business model evolution across the entire industry. In markets that are highly sensitive to price and performance, such as providing internet to ships and airplanes, customers are rapidly migrating away from legacy GEO systems toward cheaper, faster, and lower-latency NGSO solutions. This has turned multi-orbit strategies—the ability to offer services that can seamlessly switch between GEO and NGSO networks—from a forward-looking concept into a defensive necessity for incumbent operators who risk losing their customer base.

The industry is responding to this disruption in several interconnected ways. One is through consolidation. Legacy operators are merging to achieve greater scale, operational efficiency, and a stronger negotiating position in the market. The mergers of Viasat and Inmarsat, and Eutelsat and OneWeb, are prime examples of this trend. Another response is through technological adaptation. GEO satellite operators are investing in more advanced and flexible satellites, particularly software-defined satellites, which allow them to reallocate capacity, change coverage areas, and adjust power levels while in orbit to respond more dynamically to changing market demands.

Finally, the disruption is also creating new opportunities for market expansion. The lower cost of connectivity and new technological capabilities are unlocking markets that were previously unaddressable. The dream of providing affordable, high-speed internet to unconnected populations around the world is now becoming a reality, as detailed in the Universal Broadband Access report. Similarly, the development of direct-to-device technology, which allows standard smartphones to connect directly to satellites, is opening up a massive new market for ubiquitous connectivity, a market analyzed in the Prospects for Direct to Handheld and IoT Marketsreport. The entire Satcom industry is being remade in the image of the terrestrial telecommunications industry—a competitive, high-volume business where success depends on scale, efficiency, and continuous innovation.

Satellite Connectivity and Video Market

Providing a high-level, all-encompassing view of the satellite telecommunications value chain, the Satellite Connectivity and Video Market report examines the major shifts occurring across both connectivity and video services. This report serves as a strategic guide for understanding the broader trends and financial trajectory of the industry. It projects that total industry revenues will continue to grow, approaching an impressive $117 billion by 2033. The report offers critical insights to guide business strategy and investment decisions for companies operating at all levels of the satellite telecom value chain, from satellite operators to ground equipment manufacturers and service providers. It synthesizes many of the trends detailed in the more specialized reports into a single, coherent picture of the market’s future.

Universal Broadband Access

For billions of people around the world, access to reliable, high-speed internet remains out of reach. The Universal Broadband Access report, now in its third edition, explores the expanding and essential role of satellite technology in advancing global digital inclusion and bridging this digital divide. The report analyzes a massive projected market opportunity of $320 billion through 2033, with satellite broadband services already within reach of over 780 million people.

A central finding of the report is that the economics of satellite broadband have been fundamentally altered. The rise of NGSO constellations and an associated 90% drop in capacity prices in some markets have made satellite internet a viable and affordable solution for unserved and underserved communities for the first time. This shift is already having a tangible impact; between 2021 and 2024, the number of satellite broadband users worldwide doubled to 100 million.

The report provides a detailed market sizing of the addressable population through 2033, a breakdown of the revenue opportunity by service category and region, and an analysis of enabling technologies like AI, software-defined systems, and 5G integration. It also includes a deep dive into Starlink’s pricing strategies and subscriber projections, as well as timelines for the market impact of emerging direct-to-phone connectivity. This report is an essential resource for satellite operators, telcos, government regulators, and international organizations focused on the future of global connectivity.

Prospects for In-Flight Connectivity

The demand for reliable, high-speed internet on airplanes is no longer a luxury—it’s an expectation. The Prospects for In-Flight Connectivity report analyzes the future of this rapidly growing market, forecasting that the number of connected aircraft is set to exceed 60,800 by 2033. This growth is driven by airlines adopting new technology and service offerings to meet passenger demand and create new ancillary revenue streams.

A key trend highlighted in the report is the ongoing migration of airlines away from legacy GEO-based systems toward more advanced NGSO and hybrid multi-orbit solutions. This technological shift is driving a staggering increase in bandwidth consumption, with total leased capacity expected to rise from 90 Gbps in 2023 to 1.8 Tbps by 2033. New technologies are enabling airlines to offer free Wi-Fi, which will further accelerate this demand.

The report underscores the impact of NGSO services, such as those offered by Starlink and OneWeb, which are revolutionizing in-flight connectivity by offering greater bandwidth at reduced costs. It tracks the adoption of these new services by major airlines and analyzes the challenges and timelines associated with large-scale fleet retrofits. With service provider revenues expected to grow from $2.5 billion in 2023 to $6.5 billion by 2033, the report provides a clear roadmap of the opportunities and competitive dynamics in this evolving market.

Prospects for Maritime Satellite Communications

Connectivity at sea is essential for crew welfare, operational efficiency, and passenger satisfaction. The Prospects for Maritime Satellite Communications report, in its 13th edition, explores the accelerating growth in this sector, with service revenues projected to reach $3.3 billion by 2034. The report examines essential trends across five main segments: merchant shipping, passenger ships, leisure vessels, fishing vessels, and the offshore oil and gas market.

The dominant theme of the report is the market’s rapid and decisive transition to a new “NGSO norm.” It forecasts that NGSO-based solutions are expected to capture an overwhelming 93% of the market’s service revenues by 2034. This major shift is largely attributed to the “Starlink effect,” as the company’s service launch has disrupted the market by offering higher speeds at lower prices, fundamentally altering the competitive landscape. This switch to NGSO bandwidth is forecast to fuel a seven-fold growth in capacity demand, from 286 Gbps in 2024 to 2 Tbps by the end of the decade.

The report provides a comprehensive analysis of this transition, detailing key metrics such as the number of equipped vessels, average revenue per user (ARPU), capacity usage, and service revenues for each market segment. It also notes that while NGSO is becoming the primary connectivity solution, large vessel operators are often choosing to retain existing GEO solutions as a backup, creating new market dynamics and partnership opportunities. With extensive 10-year forecasts, the report provides critical insights for any player looking to navigate the opportunities and challenges in the modern maritime satcom ecosystem.

Optical Communications Market

As satellites become more data-intensive, the need for faster and more secure communication links is growing. The Optical Communications Market report, in its 2nd edition, examines the accelerating evolution of optical, or laser-based, communications for space applications. This technology offers significant advantages over traditional radio frequency (RF) links, including higher data rates, increased security, and freedom from spectrum licensing constraints.

The report assesses the range of equipment and solutions dedicated to enhancing space-based communications using optical links, analyzing the market across satellite communications, Earth Observation, and government segments. It provides forecasts for the next decade for both market revenues and the number of optical terminals to be deployed on satellite platforms. The analysis covers both space-to-space inter-satellite links, which are critical for NGSO constellations, and space-to-ground direct-to-Earth links.

A key focus of the report is the role of standardization in driving market access and democratization of the technology. It reviews typical use cases, from intra-constellation data relays to deep-space communications and even emerging applications like Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) for ultra-secure communications. By analyzing emerging players, technologies, and equipment trends, the report equips industry stakeholders with an in-depth market analysis of the optical link solutions that will be driving opportunity through the next decade.

High Throughput Satellites

High Throughput Satellites (HTS) are the technological engine driving the satellite connectivity revolution. The 7th edition of Novaspace’s High Throughput Satellites report provides an essential analysis of this market, where the rapid expansion of NGSO constellations is fundamentally reshaping industry dynamics. The report is a critical tool for executives and investors, offering an in-depth analysis of HTS capacity supply, vertical market demand, and the infrastructure investment and market strategies of HTS operators.

The report reveals that HTS supply tripled between 2021 and 2023 to 27 Tbps, with Starlink alone accounting for 90% of the net new supply during that period. This has been accompanied by strong growth in demand, which doubled in 2023 to 6 Tbps, with NGSO systems accounting for nearly 90% of that growth. The report forecasts a remarkable nine-fold growth in HTS capacity supply between 2023 and 2028, with NGSO constellations driving 97% of the net increase.

This analysis provides technical, financial, and commercial benchmarks of the leading NGSO constellations, including Starlink, OneWeb, Telesat Lightspeed, SES mPOWER, and Amazon Kuiper. It also includes a deep-dive into Starlink’s performance and business model, a review of key ground segment technologies, and an assessment of the multi-orbit strategies being adopted by satellite operators in response to the changing landscape. With revenue projections forecasting a quadrupling of HTS capacity revenue to $22 billion by 2032, the report delivers the business-critical insights decision-makers can rely on in this increasingly competitive environment.

FSS Capacity Pricing Trends

The massive influx of HTS capacity is having a direct and dramatic impact on pricing. The FSS Capacity Pricing Trends report, 7th edition, analyzes the critical shift in satellite capacity economics as the industry moves from an era of scarcity to one of abundance. As new-generation satellites drive down the cost base of capacity—projected to fall below $1 per Mbps per month in the next few years—traditional wholesale leasing models are coming under increasing pressure.

The report provides a granular assessment of current satellite capacity pricing levels, with a 2-year forecast across nine distinct regions. It examines how pricing parameters have evolved in the past 12 to 18 months and estimates the “best-fit” price range and standard reference price across different regions, applications, and infrastructures (Regular, GEO-HTS, and NGSO-HTS).

A key finding is that operators are being pushed to embrace value-driven pricing strategies to remain competitive. Starlink has led the push for lower per-gigabyte pricing, reaching approximately $0.20 per month for consumer broadband in most regions, intensifying market competition. The report highlights that while video pricing for traditional infrastructure remains relatively stable, data application pricing is seeing significant declines due to the rise of NGSO systems. With over 2,500 capacity contracts and 2,800 broadband service plans analyzed, the report delivers detailed pricing benchmarks and business case simulations to help stakeholders navigate this evolving landscape.

FSS Operators: Benchmarks and Performance Review

In a market undergoing such rapid change, understanding the performance and strategies of the key players is essential. The FSS Operators: Benchmarks & Performance Review, in its 16th edition, offers an in-depth assessment of the companies at the heart of the satellite industry. It is the only report that assesses all 52 active and 2 pre-operational Fixed Satellite Service (FSS) operators, including publicly listed and privately held companies at the global, regional, and national levels.

The report provides a comprehensive evaluation of the FSS landscape, benchmarking key players across financial performance, business strategy, and satellite assets. It evaluates company performance over a five-year period (where available), providing an overview of key performance indicators (KPIs) for each company. The analysis covers revenues, market share, fleet strategy, fill rates, capacity supply, and market capitalization.

The latest edition includes a new focus on market capitalization, mergers and acquisitions, partnerships, and cross-industry collaborations, reflecting the ongoing consolidation in the industry. It also features new matrices on the operational and payload strategies of FSS operators. This in-depth report provides the strategic insights essential for driving revenue growth and maintaining a competitive edge in this rapidly evolving sector.

Prospects for Direct to Handheld and IoT Markets

One of the most exciting new frontiers in satellite communications is the ability to connect devices directly to satellites without the need for a specialized ground terminal. The Prospects for Direct to Handheld and IoT Markets report, 9th edition, analyzes the rapid expansion of this direct-to-device satellite connectivity market. The study projects the market will grow from $1.5 billion today to nearly $15 billion by 2033, fueled by rapid advancements in technology and expanding satellite networks.

The report offers a comprehensive market analysis across four key segments: traditional handheld satellite phones, direct-to-phone connectivity, satellite IoT, and cellular IoT. It highlights strong growth in satellite cellular IoT, with hundreds of millions of compatible devices expected by 2029. At the same time, the market for traditional handheld phones is projected to decline sharply as these emerging satellite-enabled services are adopted.

A major focus is on direct-to-phone services, which are expected to generate $42 billion in service revenues over the next decade and connect over 425 million monthly users by 2033. The report highlights recent investments and partnerships by leading players such as AST SpaceMobile, Globalstar, Lynk, and Starlink. It provides ten-year forecasts for devices and service revenues, broken down by regions, service offerings, and verticals, offering a clear view of the opportunities and challenges for operators in this transformative market.

NGSO Tracker

To keep pace with the fastest-moving segment of the satellite industry, Novaspace offers the NGSO Tracker. This market insight product provides a focused and regularly updated review of the progress across major Non-Geostationary Satellite Orbit (NGSO) constellation projects. The tracker assesses developments in the space and ground segments, commercial rollouts, and performance benchmarks for each of the main operators. It includes an overview of major projects, a project maturity benchmark, timelines, and a cost-of-capacity benchmark, offering a clear and current view of the timelines, costs, and capabilities of these industry-shaping constellations.

Software Defined Satellites

A key technological response to the dynamic satcom market is the development of more flexible satellites. The Software Defined Satellites report provides an in-depth analysis of these advanced platforms, also known as “flexsats.” These satellites allow operators to reconfigure their capabilities—such as changing coverage areas, adjusting power levels, and reallocating frequencies—while in orbit, providing an unprecedented level of adaptability.

The report highlights the growing adoption of flexsats across both GEO and NGSO markets, projecting they will achieve nearly an 80% market share of GEO comsat orders by 2033. It examines platform and payload specifications, technology requirements, and reviews the offerings of leading satellite manufacturers like Airbus, Boeing, and Thales. The report explores the market drivers, challenges, and opportunities for this emerging market and offers forecasts for both GEO and NGSO segments, providing essential intelligence for understanding this critical technological trend.

The Broader Space Industry Landscape

Beyond the specific verticals of government, Earth Observation, and satellite communications, Novaspace provides a series of reports that take a wider, more holistic view of the space industry. These analyses cover the entire value chain, from the fundamental activities of manufacturing and launching satellites to the emerging markets for in-orbit logistics and the overall economic health and financial trends of the sector. Together, they paint a picture of an industry that is industrializing at an unprecedented scale.

A key theme that emerges from these reports is that while the volume of activity is exploding, the value is highly concentrated. A few vertically integrated players, particularly those building mega-constellations, are driving the vast majority of the demand in terms of the number of satellites being built and launched. high-value, specialized government missions continue to dominate the market in pure dollar terms. This creates a complex industrial dynamic where different strategies are required to succeed in the high-volume and high-value segments of the market.

The primary enabler of this industrialization has been the dramatic reduction in the cost of access to space, a trend largely driven by the success of SpaceX’s reusable launch model. Lower launch costs, combined with the shift toward mass production of satellites, have made the deployment of mega-constellations economically viable. This boom in upstream activity is, in turn, creating new, second-order markets for services that were previously niche or non-existent. The thousands of new satellites being placed in orbit create new problems, such as orbital congestion and the need for complex ground networks to communicate with them. These problems, in turn, create business opportunities. The “space logistics” market is emerging to solve the challenge of managing, servicing, and sustaining assets in an increasingly crowded orbit. Similarly, the “Ground-Segment-as-a-Service” (GSaaS) market is growing to solve the problem of communicating with vast constellations without requiring each operator to build a cost-prohibitive global network of private ground stations.

At the same time, the industry is undergoing a period of financial recalibration and consolidation. While top-line growth forecasts for the space economy remain strong, private investment has cooled from the peak levels seen in 2021. This indicates a maturing market where investors are no longer just funding ambitious plans; they are now looking for proven business models and a clear path to profitability. In this environment, securing government contracts is becoming an increasingly important indicator of a company’s stability and long-term viability, providing a source of stable revenue that can anchor a business as it navigates the more volatile commercial markets.

Satellites to be Built and Launched

The Satellites to be Built and Launched report, in its 27th edition, is a cornerstone of Novaspace’s portfolio, providing a comprehensive analysis of the global demand for satellite manufacturing and launch services. It tracks the global boom in satellite production and deployment, offering a deep, data-driven assessment of the entire market.

The report’s headline forecast is staggering: an average of over 3,700 satellites are expected to be launched annually through 2033. This is equivalent to about 10 satellites per day, totaling a mass of seven tons heading to space daily. This surge reflects the accelerating demand for satellite-powered connectivity and data services worldwide.

The report immediately adds a crucial layer of nuance to this figure. It reveals a significant disparity between the volume and the value of the market. Four major broadband NGSO constellations—Starlink, Kuiper, G60, and GuoWang—will drive 65% of the satellite demand in terms of the number of units launched. Yet, due to the massive economies of scale enabled by their vertically integrated manufacturing and launch models, these constellations will account for just 14% of the overall market value. In contrast, around 2,900 larger satellites (each weighing over 500 kg) will be launched by 170 different operators. These will represent only 7% of the total satellite count but will comprise a massive 70% of the total satellite manufacturing and launch market value.

This analysis provides a detailed status and maturity assessment of 550 commercial constellations and discusses the business cases for the four mega-constellations. The report’s strategic scope covers market outlooks across all orbits, applications, mass categories, and customer types, with 10 years of historical data and 10-year forecasts, including scenario modeling that extends to 2043.

Space Economy Report

Taking the widest possible view, the Space Economy Report provides a 360-degree analysis of the trends and issues across the entire vibrant space economy. Now in its 11th edition, this report is designed as a “best of” Novaspace’s research, covering both upstream segments (like manufacturing and launch) and downstream segments (services and applications).

The report forecasts that the global space economy will grow from $596 billion in 2024 to $944 billion by 2033. This steady growth is expected to be driven primarily by advancements in downstream solutions that leverage space-based infrastructure and data. The 11th edition introduces a new market segmentation that differentiates between the “space economy,” the “space market,” and “enabled solutions.” This approach focuses on the core space industry while distinguishing services that are indirectly reliant on satellite signals (like GNSS-enabled ride-sharing apps) but not directly linked to space activities.

Structured around up-to-date KPIs and graphical dashboards, the report provides a concise yet detailed review of current and long-term trends. The data is segmented by type of client (commercial, civil government, defense), geographical region, and a wide range of space applications, including Satcom, Earth Observation, Navigation, Space Logistics, and Space Tourism. It provides a strategic outlook of the entire commercial and government satellite value chain, with market revenue data from the past five years and projections for the next ten.

Prospects for the Small Satellite Market

The small satellite (smallsat) revolution has been a defining feature of the modern space era. The Prospects for the Small Satellite Market report, 10th edition, provides an in-depth analysis of the supply and demand for satellites with a mass under 500 kg across government, commercial, and academic missions.

The report forecasts strong growth, projecting a total market value of approximately $113.3 billion over the next decade. This expansion will be fueled by the need to replenish existing satellite constellations and by the rising complexity and cost of government-driven single-satellite missions. While the smallsat market remains primarily driven by constellations, the report highlights that for the first time, military operators are set to lead other operator types in associated market value, reaching $46.7 billion (41% of the total) through the next decade.

This analysis provides detailed information on seven different smallsat applications, six types of orbits, and five mass categories, with a major review of telecom mega-constellations. The report’s consolidated figures now exclude the Starlink constellation to provide a clearer representation of the broader smallsat market. It includes a comprehensive assessment of all smallsat constellations and operators, a review of all Chinese smallsat stakeholders, and an analysis of the U.S. Space Development Agency’s architecture. It also features expanded analysis of smallsat financing trends, new content on enabling technologies like electric propulsion, and expanded coverage of sustainability and debris mitigation.

SpaceX Business Outlook

Given its outsized influence on nearly every segment of the space industry, understanding the trajectory of SpaceX is critical for any market participant. The SpaceX Business Outlook report offers a unique and clear financial and strategic breakdown of the company’s two core business lines: Starlink and Launch & Infrastructure.

Built on Novaspace’s proprietary financial modeling, the report analyzes SpaceX’s transformation from a launch provider into a diversified multi-market operator. A key finding of the report is that SpaceX has entered a new phase of commercial maturity, with Starlink revenues having surpassed launch services for the first time in 2024, driving record profitability.

The report provides rigorous multi-year revenue forecasts and cost models for each of SpaceX’s major business lines, quantifying their growth and profitability. It includes a deep-dive into the Starlink business, covering its infrastructure, downstream markets, and financial modeling across all its service lines. It also features an in-depth analysis of SpaceX’s launch infrastructure, highlighting the economics of Falcon 9 reusability and the progress of the Starship program. A comprehensive account of SpaceX’s funding history, covering all public and private capital raised since 2002, provides insight into the company’s growth. This report enables stakeholders to interpret SpaceX’s market position, performance drivers, and future direction with clarity and precision.

Ground Segment Market Prospects

Satellites in orbit are only one part of a functioning space system; they are entirely reliant on a network of ground infrastructure to control them and to receive their data. The Ground Segment Market Prospects report, 5th edition, tracks the reshaping of this vital market amid shifting demand and the rise of vertical integration. The report benchmarks global players and analyzes the trends that are redefining ground infrastructure, strategy, and growth through 2033.

The report covers the different application chains in the commercial and government ground segment, including Satcom applications, EO applications, and user terminals. A key finding is that the number of commercial satcom user terminals has nearly tripled in the last three years, fueled primarily by the consumer and enterprise segments. The report also details increased demand for military terminals, driven by geopolitical tensions.

A major focus is the evolution of business models. The report explores the trend of operators divesting their ground assets and the growing adoption of “Ground-Segment-as-a-Service” (GSaaS) models, where operators lease capacity from third-party teleport providers rather than owning their own infrastructure. It also includes, for the first time, high-level market forecasts for optical ground stations, underscoring their potential impact on the sector. With five years of historical data and a ten-year forecast, the report equips readers to capitalize on emerging opportunities in this dynamic market.

Space Logistics Markets

As the space environment becomes increasingly congested and contested, a new market is emerging to provide in-orbit services that enhance the flexibility, sustainability, and safety of space operations. The Space Logistics Markets report, 3rd edition, forecasts a $4.6 billion opportunity in this sector through the end of the decade. As satellite operators face a growing need for Space Situational Awareness solutions to enable safer spaceflight, the report offers a complete analysis and forecast of the space logistics value chain and its evolution.

The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the emerging space logistics markets, including:

• Access to Space: Analysis of launch services as an enabler of the logistics ecosystem.
• Last Mile Delivery: The use of orbital transfer vehicles (OTVs) or space tugs to deliver satellites to their final orbits.
• Satellite Servicing and Life Extension: Missions to repair, refuel, or upgrade satellites in orbit.
• Active Debris Removal: Technologies to capture and de-orbit space junk.
• In-Orbit Manufacturing: The development of manufacturing capabilities in space.
• Space Situational Awareness: A special focus on the commercial market for SSA services.

The report maps the space logistics ecosystem, details the regulatory framework, and analyzes both government support and private investment in the sector. It provides three forecast scenarios for revenues—a baseline, an optimistic, and a conservative trajectory—offering flexibility amidst market uncertainty.

Space Market Monitoring

For stakeholders who need to keep a real-time pulse on the industry, the Space Market Monitoring report provides a dynamic dashboard of near-real-time business indicators. This product presents 50 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and curated news summaries that are continuously collected and updated. The dashboard provides an executive-level analysis for tracking market shifts and performance on a monthly basis. The KPIs cover five key market segments: satellite manufacturing, launch services, satellite communications, Earth observation, and fundraising and investments. This tool offers a dynamic and comprehensive insight into the health and direction of the industry.

Financing and Transactions Database

Complementing the Space Market Monitoring report, the Financing and Transactions Database tracks the financial pulse of the sector. Updated monthly, this database details space industry funding and deal activity, including investment flows, Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) operations, and funding rounds. It provides searchable insights into equity investments, debt operations, IPOs, and SPAC mergers. This database is an essential tool for assessing the financial health of a market segment and for supporting precision planning and strategic success.

Specialized Data Products

Beyond its portfolio of analytical reports, Novaspace also offers direct access to the foundational data that underpins its market intelligence. These specialized data products cater to a more sophisticated customer base of analysts, strategists, and investors who need granular, customizable data to build their own proprietary models and insights. The existence of these standalone products is a sign of the space industry’s maturation; it has grown large and complex enough to support its own ecosystem of specialized analysts who require direct access to raw data. Novaspace’s two-tiered intelligence model—offering both the finished analysis in its reports and the raw ingredients in its data products—serves the full spectrum of analytical needs in the modern space economy.

Data Catalog

The Data Catalog functions as a portal that provides direct access to Euroconsult’s four decades of space and satellite data. It allows users to query and obtain specific datasets from Novaspace’s proprietary relational databases, which cover every aspect of the satellite value chain. Users can select their area of interest—from government budgets and satellite manufacturing to satcom market indicators and space exploration missions—and request a quotation for a customized data package. The catalog covers a multitude of indicators for all main end-user verticals, with forecasts extending for a ten-year period. This provides the necessary information for clients to build their own models for the demand of each vertical market, tailored to their specific needs.

Ecosystem Database

The Ecosystem Database is an extensive and exhaustive product that consolidates organizational and strategic information on all known space actors. This global database showcases more than 2,200 public and private companies, including operational, defunct, and academic organizations. It is designed to allow users to map and understand the entire industrial landscape.

For each organization, the database provides key organizational indicators such as its official name, foundation year, and employee count. It also covers strategic and financial indicators, including publicly documented revenues and profits, main shareholders, and information on mergers and acquisitions. The companies are broken down into 10 value chain segments (e.g., satellite operator, launch provider, downstream service provider) and 11 applications (e.g., Telecom, Earth Observation, Space Logistics). Available in multiple file formats, including Excel, JSON, and XML, the database is an invaluable tool for competitive analysis, partnership identification, and strategic planning.

Summary

The comprehensive portfolio of market intelligence reports from Novaspace paints a detailed picture of a global space sector in the midst of a significant and multifaceted transformation. Across every category of analysis, from government programs to the intricate dynamics of the commercial industry, a set of powerful, interconnected themes emerges. These trends are reshaping the technological landscape, redrawing competitive boundaries, and creating both immense opportunities and significant challenges for stakeholders.

The most significant driver is the renewed strategic focus on space by governments worldwide, evidenced by record-level budgets that are increasingly directed toward defense and security. This spending is a direct reaction to the changing nature of the orbital environment, which has become more congested and contested due to the very success of the commercial sector. This has ignited a self-reinforcing cycle: commercial innovation, particularly the deployment of mega-constellations, creates new economic possibilities but also new vulnerabilities, which in turn drives government investment in capabilities like Space Situational Awareness to mitigate those risks.

This commercial innovation is most disruptive in the satellite communications sector, where the shift from capacity scarcity to abundance, led by Non-Geostationary Orbit (NGSO) constellations, has shattered traditional business models. The resulting collapse in capacity pricing is forcing a wave of industry consolidation, a pivot to more flexible, software-defined satellite technologies, and an expansion into previously unaddressable markets like universal broadband and direct-to-device connectivity. In the Earth Observation market, a similar dynamic is unfolding, where a government-led boom in satellite deployments is commoditizing raw data and migrating economic value downstream to sophisticated, AI-powered analytics services.

Underpinning all of this is the industrialization of space. The dramatic reduction in launch costs and the advent of satellite mass production have enabled a scale of activity that was unimaginable a decade ago. This industrial scale is now giving rise to a new, second-order economy for in-orbit services, with emerging markets in space logistics, satellite servicing, and debris removal. While the long-term growth forecasts for the space economy are robust, the industry is also in a period of financial recalibration, with investors demanding proven profitability and sustainable business models. In this complex and dynamic environment, the data-driven analysis provided by Novaspace’s reports serves as an essential guide for navigating the future of the global space sector.

The table below consolidates the key top-level forecasts from across Novaspace’s reports, providing a quantitative snapshot of the major market segments.

What Questions Does This Article Answer?

• What core capabilities underpin Novaspace’s consulting and market intelligence services?
• How does Novaspace employ its data to influence strategic decision-making in the space and satellite sectors?
• What trends are revealed by Novaspace’s analysis of government space programs and spending?
• What impact is the commercial sector’s growth having on government security strategies in space?
• How are government space strategies adapting to new market realities, according to Novaspace reports?
• What are the key investment figures and strategic evaluations provided by the Government Space Programs report?
• In what ways is Novaspace shaping understanding and strategy in the space domain awareness sector?
• How does the Major Space Programs Tracker report detail the technological shift in space program architectures?
• What forecasting and strategic insights does the Prospects for Space Exploration report deliver?
• What is the strategic importance of the Satellite Communications for Defense and Security report in understanding military satcom trends?

Last update on 2025-12-19 / Affiliate links / Images from Amazon Product Advertising API