
- The Orbital-Speed Threat
- The Two Faces of the MMOD Threat
- A Brief History of Space Junk
- The Physics of "Why It's So Dangerous"
- A Wall of Defense: MMOD Protection Strategies
- Testing the Shields: Recreating Space Impacts on Earth
- Best Practices: Preventing the Problem from Getting Worse
- The New Space Age: New Challenges, New Solutions
- Summary
The Orbital-Speed Threat
Space is often described as empty, a vast vacuum. This isn’t quite right. The regions of space closest to Earth, where thousands of satellites operate, are becoming increasingly busy. This environment is filled with millions of objects, some natural and some man-made, moving at speeds that defy comprehension. This population of high-speed projectiles is known collectively as MMOD, a pairing of Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris. It represents one of the most significant and growing threats to all spaceflight, from human missions and scientific satellites to the global communications infrastructure.
Understanding this threat isn’t just for rocket scientists. It’s for anyone who relies on a satellite, whether for a GPS signal, a weather forecast, or a video call. The MMOD problem is a challenge of orbital sustainability. It forces a complex balance between using space and protecting it, and it has given rise to a sophisticated field of science dedicated to tracking, shielding against, and mitigating a threat that can’t be seen until it’s too late.
The Two Faces of the MMOD Threat
The MMOD acronym is a pairing of two distinct, yet related, hazards. Both are dangerous because of their velocity, but they have very different origins and characteristics.
Micrometeoroids: The Natural Hazard
Micrometeoroids are tiny particles of rock and metal that originate from natural sources within the solar system. They are cosmic dust. Most are the shed remnants of comets as they pass near the sun, or tiny fragments chipped off asteroids from long-ago collisions. These particles don’t just orbit the Earth; they orbit the Sun, and Earth’s orbit happens to intersect their path.
Their sizes are typically microscopic, ranging from the size of a smoke particle to a grain of sand. What they lack in size, they make up for in speed. Because their orbits are independent of Earth, a spacecraft can run into them head-on. Average impact velocities for micrometeoroids are high, often between 10 and 70 kilometers per second. To put that in perspective, 70 km/s is over 150,000 miles per hour.
The threat from micrometeoroids is best described as erosion. For decades, spacecraft have been “sandblasted” by these particles. The impacts pit surfaces, degrade the performance of solar panels by clouding their glass, and can slowly wear away thermal coatings. While a single micrometeoroid impact is unlikely to be catastrophic (unless it’s an unusually large one), their constant bombardment is a design challenge that all long-duration missions must account for. This is a fundamental, unavoidable hazard of operating in space.
Orbital Debris: The Man-Made Menace
Orbital debris, often called “space junk” or “space debris,” is the human contribution to the MMOD problem. It is any man-made object orbiting Earth that no longer serves a useful function. Unlike the random flux of micrometeoroids, orbital debris is a direct consequence of more than 60 years of space activity, and it is concentrated in the most useful and most popular orbits, primarily Low Earth Orbit (LEO).
The orbital debris population is vast and varied. It can be broken down into several categories:
- Defunct Satellites: Thousands of satellites that have reached the end of their mission, run out of fuel, or simply broken down. They remain in orbit as large, inert, and uncontrolled targets.
- Spent Rocket Stages: The upper stages of rockets that deliver satellites to their final orbit. These are often large, massive objects (the size of a school bus) that, in the past, were simply abandoned after a single use.
- Mission-Related Debris: A catch-all for items lost or discarded during operations. This includes lens caps, fragments of insulation blankets, dropped tools from spacewalks, solid rocket motor slag, and even individual bolts.
- Fragmentation Debris: This is the most numerous and dangerous category. It is the shrapnel created when satellites or rocket stages explode or collide. A common historical source of explosions was unspent fuel or pressurized gas left in old rocket stages. These stages would orbit for years until thermal stresses or a small impact caused them to detonate, creating thousands of new fragments.
The velocities in LEO are what make debris so dangerous. A satellite in a stable LEO orbit must travel at roughly 7.8 km/s (about 17,500 mph) to stay in orbit. Because debris can be in different orbits (different altitudes, different inclinations), the relative velocity of a collision can easily be 10 km/s or more.
The sheer number of debris objects is staggering. As of 2025, space surveillance networks actively track over 35,000 objects larger than 10 centimeters (about 4 inches, or the size of a softball). Below that, the numbers are based on statistical modeling, but the estimates are grim:
- Approximately 1 million objects between 1 cm and 10 cm (the size of a marble).
- Over 130 million objects between 1 mm and 1 cm (the size of a grain of sand).
This population means that LEO isn’t an empty void; it’s a field of high-speed projectiles.
A Brief History of Space Junk
The orbital debris problem wasn’t created overnight. It’s the cumulative result of decades of launches, accidents, and even deliberate actions.
The First Debris
The story of space debris begins with the very first satellite. When the Soviet Union launched Sputnik 1 in October 1957, the satellite itself wasn’t the only thing in orbit. Its R-7 rocket booster’s upper stage also entered orbit, becoming the first large piece of space debris. Both eventually re-entered Earth’s atmosphere and burned up.
In 1958, the United States launched Vanguard 1. The satellite, a tiny 6-inch sphere, reached a high, stable orbit. Its upper launch stage also reached orbit. Both are still up there today. Vanguard 1 and its companion rocket stage are now the oldest pieces of man-made debris still in orbit, and they are expected to remain there for centuries.
The Problem Emerges
In the early decades of the space age, the prevailing attitude was that “space is big.” The orbits seemed limitless, and the idea that our small additions could become a problem was not a widespread concern. Rockets were designed for performance, not for disposal. As a result, hundreds of spent rocket stages were left in LEO, many with residual fuel and high-pressure tanks.
In the 1970s, these abandoned rocket stages began to explode. The U.S. Delta rocket, in particular, had upper stages that were prone to this. Decades after their missions, they would spontaneously detonate, each event creating a cloud of hundreds of new, trackable debris fragments. This was the first clear sign that our orbital pollution was not only staying there but was actively getting worse.
It was during this time, in 1978, that a NASA scientist named Donald J. Kessler published a groundbreaking paper. He and his colleague Burton Cour-Palais presented a scenario that would come to be known as the Kessler syndrome.
The Kessler Syndrome: A Runaway Problem
The Kessler syndrome, or Kessler effect, isn’t a single event. It’s a theory about a tipping point. The theory states that if the density of objects in a particular orbit (like LEO) becomes high enough, a chain reaction of collisions can begin.
The process is simple and frightening:
- A random collision occurs between two objects (e.g., a defunct satellite and a piece of shrapnel).
- This collision, happening at hypervelocity, shatters both objects into thousands of new fragments.
- This new cloud of debris spreads out, vastly increasing the total number of objects in that orbital region.
- This, in turn, increases the statistical probability of more collisions.
- Each new collision creates more debris, which leads to more collisions, in a cascading, exponential feedback loop.
Kessler warned that once this cascade begins, it can become self-sustaining. The debris environment would continue to get worse even if humans never launched another rocket. The eventual outcome is that certain orbital bands could become so cluttered and dangerous that they would be unusable for satellites or human spaceflight for decades, or even centuries. It would effectively create a barrier of shrapnel around the planet, trapping us on Earth.
For decades, the Kessler syndrome was a distant, theoretical concern. Then, two specific events in the 21st century showed that the threat was very real.
Major Debris-Generating Events
Two single days are responsible for a massive percentage of the most dangerous, trackable debris in orbit today.
The 2007 Chinese Anti-Satellite Test:
In January 2007, China conducted an anti-satellite (ASAT) missile test. The target was one of its own weather satellites, the Fengyun-1C, which was in a polar orbit at an altitude of about 865 km. The missile, a kinetic-kill vehicle, struck the satellite at hypervelocity. The collision was a complete success as a weapons test and an unmitigated disaster for the orbital environment.
The Fengyun-1C, which had a mass of about 960 kg, was obliterated. The impact instantly created a cloud of over 3,000 trackable fragments (larger than 10 cm) and an estimated 150,000 smaller fragments. Because of the high altitude, these fragments will stay in orbit for many decades, passing through some of the most populated orbital pathways. This single event increased the total amount of trackable debris by about 25% at the time.
The 2009 Iridium-Cosmos Collision:
On February 10, 2009, the Kessler syndrome became a reality. Over the Siberian tundra, at an altitude of 789 km, an operational Iridium 33 communications satellite (weighing 689 kg) and a defunct, non-maneuverable Russian military satellite, Kosmos-2251 (weighing 950 kg), slammed into each other.
This was the first accidental, hypervelocity collision between two intact satellites. They were on crossing paths and hit at a relative velocity of about 11.7 km/s (over 26,000 mph). Both satellites were instantly destroyed.
The collision created two massive debris clouds. Within a year, over 2,000 pieces of trackable debris were cataloged from the event. These clouds of shrapnel did not stay in one place; they quickly spread out, forming shells of debris that lapped the entire globe at that altitude. The International Space Station (ISS), which orbits much lower at around 420 km, has had to perform avoidance maneuvers to dodge fragments from this collision that were pushed into lower orbits.
These events, along with more recent ASAT tests and the natural breakup of other old rocket bodies, have confirmed that the most crowded orbits, particularly between 700 and 1,000 km, are already highly polluted. Many experts now believe the Kessler cascade has already begun in these regions, though it is happening on a timescale of decades.
The Physics of “Why It’s So Dangerous”
To a non-technical audience, the idea of a 1 cm “marble” in space being a mission-ending threat can seem strange. We’re used to our ground-based intuition, where a marble is harmless. In orbit, the rules are completely different. The danger is defined by one thing: kinetic energy.
It’s Not the Speed, It’s the Energy
Kinetic energy is the energy an object has because of its motion. While the math behind it is simple, its implications are significant. This energy increases with the object’s mass, but it increases with the square of its velocity. This means that doubling the speed doesn’t double the energy; it quadruples it.
Orbital speeds are so high that they create energy levels that are hard to visualize.
- A 1-millimeter paint fleck, weighing almost nothing, can strike with the force of a bowling ball dropped from a three-story building.
- A 1-centimeter aluminum sphere, about the size of a marble, hitting at 10 km/s has the same impact energy as a 550-pound object traveling at 60 miles per hour on Earth.
- A 10-centimeter object, the size of a softball, can have the destructive equivalent of several kilograms of TNT.
This is the realm of “hypervelocity.” An impact is considered hypervelocity when the projectile is moving faster than the speed of sound within the material it’s hitting. At these speeds, solids no longer behave like solids.
What Happens During a Hypervelocity Impact
When a tiny piece of MMOD strikes a spacecraft, it’s not a simple “punch-through” like a bullet. It’s an explosion.
- Instantaneous Vaporization: The moment the projectile touches the spacecraft’s outer wall, the pressure and heat from the impact are so immense that both the projectile and a part of the wall are instantly vaporized, turning into a ball of superheated gas and liquid called a plasma.
- Debris Cloud Formation: This exploding plasma ball blasts a cone-shaped cloud of fragments (called “spall”) from the inside of the wall. This cloud contains not only the original projectile (now in tiny pieces) but also shrapnel from the spacecraft’s own wall.
- Internal Devastation: This spray of shrapnel then flies through the inside of the satellite, traveling at speeds of kilometers per second. This secondary cloud is what does the real damage, tearing through unshielded wiring, puncturing flight computers, and potentially hitting pressurized tanks.
A satellite can survive a puncture to an unimportant structural panel. It cannot survive its main computer being turned into Swiss cheese by a cloud of its own shrapnel.
The Spectrum of Damage
The danger from MMOD is not a single point of failure. It’s a spectrum of risk that depends on the size of the impactor.
- Erosion (less than 1 mm): These are the 130+ million “sand-sized” particles. They are too small to penetrate, but they are a constant, abrasive force. They pit camera lenses, degrade solar panels (reducing their power output), and can slowly strip away the special thermal paints and blankets that keep a satellite from overheating or freezing.
- Penetration (1 mm to 1 cm): These are the “marble-sized” particles. They are too small to be tracked from the ground but are large enough to be penetrating. This is often called the “lethal non-trackable” gap. A particle this size can easily puncture a spacesuit, a fuel line, or a non-shielded component.
- Catastrophic Failure (1 cm to 10 cm): These are the “softball-sized” objects. They are large enough to penetrate even shielded sections of a spacecraft, such as a pressurized crew module or a main propellant tank. An impact from an object this size would be a mission-ending, and potentially life-threatening, event.
- Catastrophic Breakup (larger than 10 cm): An impact with a trackable object would completely obliterate a satellite, creating a new, massive debris cloud and repeating the cycle of the Iridium-Cosmos collision.
The Risk to Human Spaceflight
For robotic missions, an MMOD strike is a financial and scientific loss. For human missions, it’s a life-or-death scenario.
The International Space Station (ISS) is the largest object ever put in orbit, making it the largest target. It has the most advanced MMOD shielding ever flown, but it is not invincible. The station’s managers live with this risk every day.
Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVAs): When an astronaut goes on a spacewalk, they are a soft-bodied satellite. Their spacesuit is a complex, pressurized spacecraft, and it’s highly vulnerable. While the suit (Extravehicular Mobility Unit, or EMU) has its own MMOD protection – multiple layers of Kevlar, Mylar, and other fabrics – it is only designed to stop particles up to about 1 mm. A strike from a 1 mm particle, the size of a grain of sand, could be enough to puncture the suit, leading to a catastrophic depressurization.
Station Operations: The ISS frequently has to deal with debris threats.
- Debris Avoidance Maneuvers (DAMs): The U.S. Space Force and NASA ground teams constantly track debris. If a trackable object is predicted to pass within a “pizza box” – a defined safety zone around the station – a decision is made to move. The ISS will fire its thrusters to slightly change its altitude, a maneuver that costs precious fuel and disrupts science experiments. This happens multiple times every year.
- “Shelter in Place”: Sometimes, a threat is detected too late to perform a DAM. In these cases, flight controllers will order the crew to “shelter in place.” This means the astronauts move into their “lifeboat” vehicles – the Crew Dragon and Soyuz capsules – that are docked to the station. They close the hatches and wait for the debris to pass. The logic is that if a “lethal non-trackable” particle strikes the station and causes a rapid depressurization, the crew is already in their escape vehicle, safe and ready to return to Earth if the station is critically damaged.
Future missions, like the Artemis program to the Moon, are also exposed. The Lunar Gateway station will be in an orbit that takes it far from LEO, but it will still face the constant, high-speed threat of natural micrometeoroids. The Orion spacecraft must survive its transit through the LEO debris fields to get to the Moon and back.
A Wall of Defense: MMOD Protection Strategies
Given the threat, how do engineers protect a spacecraft? The answer is a layered strategy that combines passive protection (shielding), active protection (avoidance), and long-term mitigation (policy). The first line of defense is the spacecraft’s armor.
The Solution Isn’t a Thicker Wall
A new engineer’s first instinct might be to just make the spacecraft walls thicker. If a 1 cm particle can penetrate a 1-millimeter-thick aluminum wall, why not just make the wall 2 centimeters thick?
The answer is mass. Every single kilogram launched into orbit is extraordinarily expensive, costing thousands of dollars. A satellite built like a tank would be too heavy to launch.
Even if mass were not an issue, a thick, single wall is a surprisingly bad way to stop a hypervelocity impact. A particle that strikes a thick wall will still create a devastating spall cloud from the inner surface, blasting shrapnel into the spacecraft’s interior. The solution is not a strong wall, but a smart one.
The Genius of the Whipple Shield
The most effective MMOD shield was actually invented in the 1940s, long before the first satellite. Astronomer Fred Whipple was trying to solve the problem of meteoroids hitting spacecraft for the (then-future) space age. His solution, now known as the Whipple shield, is beautifully simple and counter-intuitive.
A basic Whipple shield consists of two layers:
- The Bumper: A thin, sacrificial outer plate.
- The Standoff: An empty gap.
- The Rear Wall: The main wall of the spacecraft.
This design is far lighter and far more effective than a single solid wall of the same total mass. Here is how it works, step by step:
- Impact: The MMOD particle hits the thin outer bumper at hypervelocity (e.g., 7 km/s).
- Shatter: The bumper is not strong enough to stop the particle. It doesn’t need to be. Its only job is to make the particle explode. The impact completely shatters the particle and the small piece of the bumper it hit, vaporizing them into a cloud of smaller, slower-moving fragments.
- Expand: This debris cloud travels across the standoff (the empty gap). As it travels, it expands, spreading out over a much wider area.
- Absorb: This dispersed cloud – now a mix of vapor, liquid droplets, and tiny solid fragments – finally hits the main rear wall. Because the energy is no longer concentrated in a single point but is spread out over a large area, the rear wall can easily absorb the impact without being punctured.
The Whipple shield takes a single, high-energy “bullet” and converts it into a low-energy “shotgun blast” that is harmlessly absorbed. Almost every human-rated spacecraft, from Project Gemini to the ISS, has used a variation of this design.
Advanced Shielding: Improving on the Original
Modern spacecraft use more advanced versions of Whipple’s idea to provide even more protection for the same weight.
Stuffed Whipple Shield: This is the primary protection for the most critical areas of the ISS. In this design, the empty “standoff” gap is “stuffed” with lightweight, high-strength materials like Kevlar (the fabric in bulletproof vests) and Nextel (a high-performance ceramic fabric).
This “stuffing” acts like an energy-absorbing net. After the bumper shatters the particle, the fragment cloud must rip its way through multiple layers of fabric. Each layer further breaks up, slows, and absorbs the fragments, making the shield even more effective.
Multi-Shock Shields: These designs use multiple bumpers and gaps, like layers of an onion. Each layer breaks the incoming particle down into smaller and smaller pieces until only a fine dust reaches the final wall.
Strategic Protection
Shielding is heavy. Even a lightweight Whipple shield adds mass, and mass is always the enemy of a spacecraft designer. Because of this, shielding is applied strategically. It’s a game of risk management.
- Critical Components: Pressurized crew modules, fuel tanks, and main flight computers are given the heaviest protection, often Stuffed Whipple shields. These are the components that cannot fail.
- Less Critical Components: Things like solar arrays are unshielded. They are expected to be damaged over their lifetime. Engineers plan for this by adding “redundancy” – extra solar cells, for example – so the array can lose some capacity from MMOD impacts and still produce enough power.
- Redundancy: This is a key design philosophy. Instead of one critical computer, a spacecraft might have three. They are separated, so a single MMOD strike can’t take out all of them. This “redundant” design ensures the mission can continue even after taking a hit.
Testing the Shields: Recreating Space Impacts on Earth
Engineers can’t just launch a billion-dollar satellite and hope the shielding works. They have to test it on the ground. But how do you test for an impact at 17,500 mph?
The Challenge of Hypervelocity
You can’t use a normal gun. A high-powered rifle bullet only travels at about 1 km/s. The MMOD threat starts at 7 km/s and goes up. Recreating these speeds requires specialized and powerful equipment.
The Two-Stage Light-Gas Gun
The primary tool for hypervelocity impact testing is the two-stage light-gas gun. Facilities like those at NASA’sWhite Sands Test Facility and Johnson Space Center operate these massive devices. They work in two main stages:
- Stage 1 (The Piston): A conventional charge, like gunpowder, is detonated. This doesn’t fire the projectile. Instead, it fires a heavy “piston” down a large tube.
- Stage 2 (The Gas): This piston slams into a volume of a very light gas, like hydrogen or helium, compressing it to thousands of times normal pressure.
- The Launch: This super-pressurized, super-heated gas eventually bursts a thin disc and expands explosively down a long, narrow barrel. This expanding gas is what launches the tiny projectile – often just a tiny aluminum or nylon sphere weighing a fraction of a gram.
The result is that this tiny projectile is accelerated to speeds of 7, 10, or even 12 km/s. It’s fired into a vacuum chamber (to simulate the vacuum of space) where it impacts a target – a sample of the shield design being tested.
Analyzing the Aftermath
After the test, scientists meticulously study the damage. They scan the crater, measure the penetration, and analyze the spall pattern on witness plates behind the target. This real-world data is essential.
These tests are expensive and can’t cover every possible scenario. That’s where computer modeling comes in. Engineers use powerful simulation programs (called “hydrocodes”) to model the physics of a hypervelocity impact second by second. The light-gas gun tests are used to “calibrate” these computer models – to prove that the simulation matches reality.
Once the model is proven, engineers can use it to run thousands of digital “tests,” changing the impactor’s size, speed, and angle. This is how they create the “Ballistic Limit Equations” – the mathematical predictions of what a shield can and cannot stop. These models, developed by groups like the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, are what satellite designers use to determine how much shielding their spacecraft needs.
Best Practices: Preventing the Problem from Getting Worse
Shielding is the last line of defense. It’s the armor you wear when you expect to get hit. A much better long-term strategy is to not get hit in the first place, and to stop adding more “bullets” to the environment. This is the world of mitigation, tracking, and avoidance.
Tracking the Threat: Space Situational Awareness
You can’t dodge what you can’t see. The foundation of all space safety is “Space Situational Awareness” (SSA), or “Space Domain Awareness” (SDA). This is the practice of tracking everything in orbit.
The Space Surveillance Network (SSN): The primary global database of orbiting objects is maintained by the U.S. Space Force. Its Space Surveillance Network (SSN) is a global collection of ground-based radars and optical telescopes.
- Radars (like the powerful Space Fence) scan LEO, bouncing signals off objects and using the echo to determine their position, trajectory, and size.
- Telescopes scan the higher orbits (Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO)), where objects are too far for radar. They look for sun-glinting off satellites.
This network maintains the official “catalog” of all trackable objects, which is generally anything 10 cm (softball-sized) or larger. This catalog is shared with satellite operators around the world.
Commercial Trackers: In recent years, private companies have entered the game. Companies like LeoLabs and ExoAnalytic Solutions have built their own networks of advanced, private radars. They often provide faster, more precise data and can sometimes track smaller objects than the public government catalog.
The “Lethal Non-Trackable” Gap: The SSN is a marvel, but its fundamental limit defines the MMOD problem. We can shield against sand-sized particles (under 1 cm). We can track and avoid softball-sized objects (over 10 cm). The danger is the “lethal non-trackable” gap: the millions of objects between 1 cm and 10 cm. They are too big to shield against, but too small to track. Protection against this threat is based entirely on statistics and luck.
Collision Avoidance (COLA)
For the 35,000+ trackable objects, the strategy is active avoidance. This is a constant, 24/7 process known as Collision Avoidance (COLA) or Conjunction Assessment.
At NASA, this job is handled by the Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team at Goddard Space Flight Center.
The Process:
- Screening: CARA’s automated systems receive the latest SSN catalog data and compare the predicted orbits of all NASA satellites against all 35,000+ tracked objects for the next few days.
- Alert: If any object is predicted to pass within a “conjunction” – a safety box around the satellite – it triggers an alert.
- Analysis: An analyst then looks closer. Orbital predictions are never perfect; there’s always an “uncertainty” value. The analyst looks at this uncertainty to determine the probability of collision.
- Maneuver: If the probability rises above a set threshold (for the ISS, it’s 1 in 10,000), a Debris Avoidance Maneuver (DAM) is recommended. The satellite’s operators will fire its thrusters to slightly change its orbit, ensuring a safe pass.
This process is highly effective, but it costs fuel. Since fuel is a satellite’s lifeblood, every maneuver shortens its operational mission.
International Mitigation Guidelines
Avoidance is a short-term fix. The long-term solution is to stop polluting. Recognizing this, the world’s space agencies formed the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This forum, which includes NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), JAXA of Japan, and others, has developed a set of consensus guidelines for sustainable space operations.
These are not (yet) binding international laws, but they are the global standard of behavior. The key guidelines are:
- Limit Debris During Operations: Don’t intentionally discard things. Lens caps, covers, and bolts should be designed to stay attached to the spacecraft.
- Minimize Accidental Explosions (Passivation): This is one of the most important rules. At the end of a mission, all on-board energy sources must be “safed” or passivated. This means venting any leftover propellant, discharging batteries, and releasing any pressurized gases. This prevents the spacecraft or rocket stage from exploding years later.
- Post-Mission Disposal (The “25-Year Rule”): For satellites in LEO, the guideline has long been that they must be removed from orbit within 25 years of their mission’s end. This can be done by using its last bit of fuel for a “deorbit burn” (a controlled re-entry) or by placing it in an orbit low enough that atmospheric drag will pull it down naturally within 25 years.
- The “Graveyard Orbit” (For GEO): For satellites in Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO), at 36,000 km, deorbiting is not practical; it would take far too much fuel. For these, the rule is to boost them up a few hundred kilometers into a stable “disposal” or “graveyard” orbit, moving them out of the way of active satellites.
The New Reality: The 5-Year Rule
In recent years, it’s become clear that the 25-year rule is too slow. The problem is growing faster than the old guidelines can manage.
The most significant policy shift has come from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), the U.S. agency that licenses communications satellites. In 2022, the FCC adopted a new, much stricter 5-year rule. This rule requires all U.S.-licensed satellites in LEO to deorbit within five years of their mission’s end. This is a recognition that with the rise of new satellite “mega-constellations,” the 25-year guideline is no longer sufficient to protect the orbital environment.
The New Space Age: New Challenges, New Solutions
The MMOD problem is entering a new phase, driven by the commercialization of space. This “New Space” era brings both unprecedented challenges and the innovation needed to solve them.
The Mega-Constellation Problem
The single biggest change to the LEO environment is the deployment of mega-constellations. Companies like SpaceX (with Starlink), OneWeb, and Amazon (with Project Kuiper) are in the process of launching tens of thousands of new satellites to provide global internet.
These satellites are designed with modern debris mitigation in mind. They are in low orbits, are designed to deorbit automatically at end-of-life (usually within 5 years), and are highly maneuverable.
The problem is one of sheer numbers. The number of active satellites in orbit has more than quadrupled in just a few years. This massive increase in “traffic” has led to a proportional increase in conjunction alerts. A single collision involving one of these satellites could release a devastating debris cloud in the very orbits all the other satellites need, potentially crippling the entire constellation. These operators now perform thousands of avoidance maneuvers per year.
The Need for Space Traffic Management (STM)
The current “see and avoid” model is becoming overwhelmed. The process of an FCC-licensed operator emailing a French-licensed operator to coordinate a maneuver is not scalable.
The solution being developed is Space Traffic Management (STM). This is the idea of creating a formal, automated, global system for space, similar to air traffic control for airplanes.
This is an immense challenge:
- Technical: It requires a shared, high-fidelity catalog of all space objects, including real-time maneuvering data, that all operators can trust.
- Political: Many satellites are national security assets. Nations are reluctant to share precise, real-time data about their military satellites.
- Legal: The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 guarantees all nations free access to space. It is silent on “right of way.” If two satellites are on a collision course, who is legally required to move? There is no answer.
Creating a global STM system is one of the most pressing diplomatic and technical challenges in space today.
Active Debris Removal (ADR)
Mitigation (not making new junk) is no longer enough. The orbits are already polluted. To solve the problem, we have to start cleaning up. This is called Active Debris Removal (ADR).
ADR is the concept of “garbage truck” satellites that can go up, grab a piece of large, dangerous debris (like an old rocket stage), and safely deorbit it. This is incredibly difficult. The “garbage” is tumbling, non-cooperative, and moving at 17,000 mph.
A new commercial industry is rising to this challenge, testing several methods:
- Harpoons: The RemoveDEBRIS mission successfully tested firing a harpoon into a target to capture it.
- Nets: The same mission also demonstrated a net that can be fired to envelop a tumbling object.
- Robotic Arms: Servicing vehicles, like Northrop Grumman’s Mission Extension Vehicle (MEV), are already in orbit, proving they can dock with and move other satellites.
- Magnetic Capture: The Japanese company Astroscale is developing a system that can magnetically dock with debris that has been pre-fitted with a special plate.
- Non-Contact: Some concepts involve using a “shepherd” satellite to push debris with an ion beam or laser, gently nudging it into a decay-producing orbit without ever touching it.
The European Space Agency (ESA) has commissioned the first-ever ADR mission, ClearSpace-1, to be launched by a Swiss startup. Its goal is to capture and deorbit a 100-kg piece of a Vega rocket left in orbit.
The Future of Protection: Smarter and Lighter
Shielding technology is also evolving. Future concepts include:
- On-Orbit Manufacturing: Printing shields in space using 3D printers. This would allow for complex, optimized shield designs that would be too delicate to survive the vibrations of a rocket launch.
- Integrated Sensors: Building sensors directly into the shield layers. This “smart shield” could tell the spacecraft where it was hit and how badly it was damaged, allowing it to autonomously switch to backup systems.
- Self-Healing Materials: Research is underway on “skins” for spacecraft that could actively seal small punctures from MMOD impacts.
Summary
Micrometeoroids and Orbital Debris are a permanent and growing feature of the space environment. The threat is not abstract; it is a clear and present danger to the assets that power our modern world. Micrometeoroids are the natural, unavoidable “weather” of space, while orbital debris is the man-made, self-inflicted “pollution.”
The hypervelocity speeds in orbit turn tiny specks of sand into dangerous projectiles and marble-sized fragments into mission-killers. The history of this problem shows that without intervention, the Kessler syndrome’s cascading chain reaction is not a question of “if,” but “when.”
Our response has been a multi-layered defense. We build robust shields to absorb impacts, we operate a global network to track threats, and we maneuver our most valuable assets to avoid collision. At the policy level, we have created rules to stop adding to the problem, such as passivating rocket stages and deorbiting satellites.
But these measures are now being outpaced. The explosive growth of new satellite constellations demands a more proactive approach. The future of spaceflight depends on a global shift from passive mitigation to active management. This will require new technologies for Space Traffic Management (STM) and Active Debris Removal (ADR), as well as the international diplomacy to make them work. The orbital environment is a finite resource, and protecting it is the only way to ensure that space remains open for all.

