In a startling turn of events that has sent ripples through the international space community, Russia’s Baikonur Cosmodrome – the historic launch site in Kazakhstan leased by Russia – sustained significant damage during the November 27, 2025, launch of the Soyuz MS-28 mission to the International Space Station (ISS). The incident has left Russia without an operational pad for crewed flights, marking the first such interruption since 1961 and raising questions about the future of its contributions to the ISS program.
The Launch and the Mission
The Soyuz-2.1a rocket lifted off from Site 31 at Baikonur at approximately 12:20 p.m. UTC on Thanksgiving Day, carrying a crew of three: Roscosmos cosmonauts Sergey Kud-Sverchkov and Sergei Mikayev, along with NASA astronaut Christopher Williams. The mission was intended to ferry the astronauts to the ISS for an extended eight-month stay, where they would conduct scientific experiments and maintain station operations. Despite the ground-side issues, the spacecraft successfully reached orbit and docked with the ISS without incident, allowing the crew to board safely.
This launch was part of the ongoing collaboration between NASA and Roscosmos under the ISS agreement, which has seen cross-flights to ensure continuous human presence on the station. However, what should have been a routine operation quickly revealed a critical oversight.
The Incident: An Unsecured Platform Causes Havoc
Post-launch inspections uncovered the damage, which stemmed from a 20-metric-ton mobile service platform that was not properly secured before liftoff. This platform, located beneath the rocket, provides access for ground crews to the vehicle’s lower stages during pre-launch preparations. As the rocket’s engines ignited, the immense thrust dislodged the unsecured structure, causing it to plummet into the flame trench below the launch table.
The resulting impact inflicted substantial harm to various launch pad components, including support systems and access structures designed to withstand the extreme conditions of a rocket launch – such as intense heat, pressure, and vibrations. Russian analysts have described the damage as significant, with repairs potentially taking a week or longer, though Roscosmos has assured that all necessary spare parts are on hand.
Official Responses and Expert Commentary
Roscosmos, Russia’s state space corporation, promptly acknowledged the issue in a statement, noting that an assessment of the launch complex is underway and that repairs will be completed in the near future. However, independent experts have expressed greater concern. Blogger Georgy Trishkin warned on Telegram that in the worst-case scenario, this could disrupt crew rotations and cargo deliveries to the ISS. Commentator Vitaliy Egorov echoed these sentiments, emphasizing that Site 31 is the only pad currently equipped for Soyuz crewed missions and Progress cargo launches, effectively grounding Russia’s human spaceflight capabilities until fixed.
NASA has not yet issued a formal statement on the matter, but sources indicate that the agency is monitoring the situation closely, given the integrated nature of ISS operations.
Broader Implications for Space Exploration
The damage at Baikonur comes at a precarious time for Russia’s space program. Site 31 serves not only for crewed Soyuz flights but also for uncrewed Progress vehicles, which are vital for delivering supplies to the Russian segment of the ISS, reboosting the station’s orbit, and managing attitude control in tandem with U.S. systems. A prolonged downtime could strain these functions, potentially forcing reliance on U.S. partners like SpaceX’s Dragon and Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus spacecraft – though their capacity to fully compensate remains uncertain, especially at the cost of increased fuel usage.
Moreover, this incident tests Russia’s commitment to the ISS amid shifting priorities, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and plans for a new Russian Orbital Station. With Roscosmos already reducing crewed missions to cut costs, the repairs will demand significant resources. In the short term, it heightens dependence on SpaceX, which currently provides the only operational U.S. crew and cargo transport, as Boeing’s Starliner awaits certification.
Impact on ISS Operations
The setback at Baikonur could have immediate and cascading effects on ISS operations. Currently, the station relies on regular Progress resupply missions to deliver food, water, fuel, and scientific equipment to support the crew of seven astronauts. The next scheduled Progress launch, Progress MS-30, was slated for early December 2025 from the same Site 31 pad. If repairs extend beyond a week, this mission could be delayed, leading to potential shortages if existing onboard supplies are not carefully rationed. Historical data shows that the ISS maintains about three to six months of reserves, but unexpected delays could force conservation measures, such as reduced water recycling efficiency or prioritized use of emergency rations.
Crew rotations are equally at risk. The Soyuz MS-28 crew’s arrival maintains the station’s full complement, but the return of the previous crew via Soyuz MS-27 is planned for March 2026. Without Site 31, Russia lacks a backup for launching the next crewed Soyuz, MS-29, tentatively scheduled for February 2026. This could strand crews longer than planned, increasing psychological and physical strain on astronauts and potentially violating international agreements on crew safety and rotation timelines.
Orbital maintenance is another critical area. Progress spacecraft are uniquely equipped to perform reboost maneuvers using their thrusters to counteract atmospheric drag and maintain the ISS at an altitude of approximately 400 kilometers. Without these boosts – typically conducted every few weeks – the station’s orbit could decay, risking uncontrolled reentry over time. While U.S. vehicles like Dragon can provide some reboost capability, they are less efficient and consume more fuel, which might shorten the overall lifespan of the ISS propulsion systems.
In a worst-case scenario, if repairs take months due to unforeseen complications or supply chain issues exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, NASA might need to accelerate alternative plans, such as increasing reliance on commercial partners or even considering early decommissioning of certain ISS modules. This incident highlights the vulnerabilities in the ISS partnership, where Russia’s role in propulsion and life support remains indispensable despite growing U.S. independence in crew access.
As repairs commence, the global space community watches closely. This event underscores the fragility of international space cooperation and the need for redundancy in launch infrastructure. While Russia has a storied history in space – from Yuri Gagarin’s first flight in 1961 to ongoing ISS contributions – the Baikonur mishap serves as a reminder that even established programs are not immune to human error. Updates on the repair timeline and its effects on upcoming missions are expected in the coming days.
