Synopsis
Here is a summary of the key points from the paper:
- The field of small launch vehicles continues to grow, with over 200 vehicles tracked by NewSpace Index. However, there are signs of a slowdown with some failures, delays, bankruptcies, and pivots away from launch.
- Since 2021, Rocket Lab has had successful launches and increased cadence, while others like ABL, Relativity, and Virgin Orbit experienced failures on debut flights. Astra discontinued Rocket 3 and pivoted to other areas.
- Delays for first launches remain common, often multiple years. Many projected maiden flights in 2022-2023 have slipped to 2024 or later.
- Valuations of launch startups that went public via SPACs have dropped significantly from billions to tens/hundreds of millions.
- Funding remains a challenge. Most startups have raised less than $10 million, far short of what is required to complete development.
- Reusability is still rare among small launchers. SpaceX rideshare launches 3-4 times annually, presenting significant competition.
- It remains uncertain if there is sufficient market demand to sustain so many small launch companies. More mergers, pivots, and bankruptcies likely.
- Key players going forward include Rocket Lab, Stoke Space, Isar Aerospace, and China’s Galactic Energy. But delays and failures may continue in the short term.
In summary, the small launch industry faces challenges in funding, technology, and market demand. While some companies like Rocket Lab have made progress, the next few years will determine if small launch is economically sustainable long-term.
