China’s space program has advanced rapidly in recent years, with milestones including landing rovers on the Moon and Mars, bringing back lunar samples, and constructing its own space station. Their stated goal is to land Chinese astronauts, or taikonauts, on the Moon by 2030. This has sparked discussion and concern in the United States, as NASA also aims to return American astronauts to the Moon in the coming years. What would be the implications if China manages to land taikonauts on the lunar surface before NASA can return Americans there?
Impact on US Prestige and Leadership in Space
The most direct consequence would be a blow to American prestige and the perception of US leadership in space. Ever since Neil Armstrong took his “one small step” in 1969, the US has held the position of the preeminent spacefaring nation. This Moon landing was a major Cold War propaganda victory, signaling the strength of American technology and innovation. If China were to repeat that historic achievement with taikonauts on the Moon, it would signal that the technological crown has been passed to a new contender.
America’s role as the leading space power has long been a source of national pride and soft power influence across the world. Other nations have eagerly partnered with NASA due to its expertise and experience at the pinnacle of space exploration. But China landing taikonauts on the Moon first could weaken NASA’s standing as the world’s premier space agency. This could erode US influence as more countries see China as the new leader in spaceflight.
Growth of China’s Global Prestige
China landing astronauts on the Moon shortly before or even beating NASA’s planned return would greatly amplify China’s prestige on the global stage. This Moon landing would cap off a string of high-profile Chinese space successes, including landing the Chang’e-4 rover on the lunar far side in 2019. It would signal China’s arrival as a true space power on par with the US and Russia.
Such a demonstration of China’s technological prowess could increase its influence across the developing world. China would have shown it could set and accomplish grand visions matching America’s Apollo program. This may further the perception of China as an ascending power while America stagnates or declines amid political dysfunction. The boost to China’s prestige could drive more countries into its sphere of influence.
Impact on US Space Policy and Funding
Domestically in the US, the policy and funding impact would depend heavily on timing. If China lands taikonauts shortly before NASA returns astronauts to the Moon, it could galvanize public opinion and Congressional support for accelerating America’s return. This could result in a surge of funding to NASA to regain the lunar high ground from China. However, this scenario could also spark partisan blame-game politics, hampering NASA instead of helping it.
Alternatively, if China beats NASA by more than a couple years, it could be severely demoralizing to the American space program. There may be backlash over how NASA allowed this to happen despite planning its lunar return for years. A Chinese Moon landing well in advance of NASA could result in loss of confidence, slashed funding, and major restructuring of agency priorities. Pressure would mount to abandon the expensive Artemis program. This could set NASA back for decades, especially if coupled with perceived loss of leadership to China.
Impact on US-China Rivalry
Geopolitically, the Moon would become an arena for 21st century rivalry between the US and China. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson has already warned about this possibility, saying “…I don’t think [China will] be satisfied with just landing and saying, ‘we’re here.’ They will want to have territory.” China establishing a sustained, crewed presence on the Moon ahead of the US would strengthen its position as America’s chief economic and political competitor on Earth.
Militarily, China gaining the high ground on the Moon could have advantages in certain scenarios. Their astronauts or robotic systems could monitor American surface activity near the lunar poles. However, the Moon’s military utility is still speculative compared to satellites in Earth orbit. Still, Chinese dominance in operating on and around the Moon could spur destabilizing arms races in space.
Impact on International Partnerships
China beating NASA to a crewed landing could influence international partnerships and cooperation in space. NASA has worked hard to cultivate partnerships through the Artemis Accords, but other nations may see China as more appealing if its space program appears ascendant. With its own space station already in orbit, China does not necessarily need to partner with other nations but could choose to do so selectively.
On the other hand, China establishing sustained lunar operations may provide impetus for demilitarization agreements regarding the Moon. During the Cold War, the US and Soviet Union agreed to keep the Moon peaceful despite military tensions on Earth. Similarly, the US and China could find incentives to avoid conflict there. But transparency and trust between the two powers is currently lacking to enable much cooperation on space development.
Impact on Lunar Development
In terms of activities on the lunar surface itself, China operating alone initially could set precedents for resource extraction, base construction, and other development. Without US-aligned nations present, China may claim exclusive mining rights in certain areas. They could set de facto rules and technical standards that later US and international missions would need to follow.
However, China would likely focus first on demonstration projects rather than extensive development. Constructing major mining and habitation infrastructure requires long-term commitment and investment beyond what China may be willing to spend alone. Until it has more extensive partnerships with other countries, China’s early lunar bases would be fairly small and focused on symbolic activities to cement its prestige as a major space power.
Summary
China landing taikonauts on the Moon ahead of NASA’s planned return would have significant implications for perceptions of US and Chinese space leadership. It could diminish America’s prestige while boosting China’s standing globally. Domestically, NASA could see surges or cuts to funding and pressure to alter priorities. The Moon could become an arena for US-China rivalry with military implications. China might gain first-mover advantage in establishing lunar development precedents and partnerships. However, capabilities to establish a sustained presence would still require long-term effort and investment from China as well as international partners. But with so much prestige and influence at stake, the world should brace for a new “space race” between China and the US in the coming decade.