Synopsis
This report, prepared by the CSIS Europe Russia and Eurasia Program, explores the evolving military alignment between Russia and China and its broader implications for transatlantic security. The document is edited by Max Bergmann and Andrew Lohsen, with contributions from several experts in defense and foreign policy.
Key Highlights:
- Pivotal Meeting in February 2022: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in February 2022, reinforcing their partnership with no restricted cooperation areas. This meeting highlighted their shared view of challenging the Western-dominated global order and moving towards multipolarity.
- Sino-Russian Partnership Post-Ukraine Invasion: Despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has not provided significant military aid to Russia nor has it helped Russia evade sanctions. However, China has refrained from condemning Russia’s actions, and bilateral trade between the two countries has increased, along with ongoing joint military exercises.
- Robust Bilateral Military Ties: The military domain is a key area of Sino-Russian cooperation, with ties strengthening significantly since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. This includes arms sales involving advanced technologies, increased military exercises, and collaboration on satellite navigation.
- Challenging Western Hegemony: Both Russian and Chinese strategic communities recognize their joint activities as crucial to challenging Western dominance in global affairs. They believe that reducing the West’s position is necessary to establish a more equitable global order. Military cooperation also aims to boost mutual trust, despite an awareness of the growing imbalance in the relationship, with China’s rising defense capabilities and Russia’s relative decline.
- Arms Sales and Technology Transfers: The advancement of China’s defense industry has reduced its reliance on Russian military imports, leading to a more equal footing in arms sales and technology transfers. Cooperation in this area is expected to deepen, including joint development of advanced systems like missile defense.
- Joint Military Exercises: The complexity and frequency of joint military exercises have grown, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. These exercises are crucial for trust-building and demonstrating military strength. Russian authors are optimistic about the practical benefits of these exercises, while Chinese authors acknowledge learning opportunities from Russia’s military experience.
- Space and Cyber Cooperation: China is rapidly moving towards self-sufficiency in space missions, while Russia’s status as a space-faring nation is threatened by various challenges. Cooperation includes diplomatic efforts to counter perceived U.S. attempts to militarize space and developing alternatives to Western-led space and cyberspace governance norms.
- Hybrid Warfare and Information Security: Both countries view hybrid warfare as a concept developed by the U.S. to undermine its competitors. They are focused on developing countermeasures and emphasize the importance of protecting their information spaces. Cooperation in regional organizations and efforts in cyberspace governance are seen as essential to counter perceived Western advantages.
In summary, the report provides a comprehensive analysis of the growing Sino-Russian military alignment and its implications for global and regional power dynamics, particularly in relation to the Western powers.
