Synopsis
Here is a summary of the GAO report “NASA ARTEMIS PROGRAMS: Crewed Moon Landing Faces Multiple Challenges”:
- NASA is unlikely to achieve its goal of landing astronauts on the moon by the end of 2025 due to delays and significant remaining work on the Human Landing System (HLS) and spacesuits.
- The HLS program is aiming to complete development 13 months faster than the average for NASA major projects. This is unrealistic given the complexity of human spaceflight. If the HLS takes as long as average, Artemis III would likely occur in early 2027.
- As of September 2023, the HLS program had delayed 8 of 13 key events by at least 6 months. Two key events were delayed to 2025, compressing the schedule.
- An incomplete test flight in April 2023 has delayed downstream testing for the HLS. Significant technical work remains in areas like the Raptor engines and propellant transfer.
- For the spacesuits, contractor Axiom is leveraging NASA’s prior work but still has remaining design challenges, technology maturation, parts procurement, and qualification testing.
- NASA is addressing cross-program risks like HLS software integration with Orion and mitigating lunar dust contamination across systems.
- Before launch, NASA will conduct reviews to ensure requirements are met and systems are safe. NASA has insight into contractor efforts but striking the right balance poses a schedule risk.
In summary, technical delays and remaining complexity make the 2025 Artemis III date unrealistic. If development takes as long as past NASA projects, the mission would likely occur in 2027. NASA is working extensive cross-program integration and safety reviews before launch.