The Government Accountability Office (GAO) recently released a report titled “NASA Artemis Missions: Exploration Ground Systems Program Could Strengthen Schedule Decisions” (GAO-25-106943) that evaluates NASA’s progress and challenges in preparing ground systems for upcoming Artemis missions to return humans to the Moon. This article summarizes the key findings and recommendations from the GAO report, which examined the Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) program’s readiness to support NASA’s ambitious lunar exploration goals.

Overview of NASA’s Artemis Program

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is planning an ambitious series of missions known as Artemis to return humans to the Moon and establish a sustained lunar presence. A key component of this effort is the Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) program, which develops and operates the systems and facilities necessary to process, launch, and recover spacecraft for Artemis missions.

EGS Program Progress and Challenges

Artemis I Success and Ongoing Work

The EGS program demonstrated its initial capability with the successful launch of Artemis I in November 2022. Since then, EGS has been working to improve facilities and develop new capabilities for future Artemis missions. This includes refurbishing and modifying existing infrastructure as well as constructing new assets like Mobile Launcher 2 (ML2).

Preparations for Artemis II and III

EGS is making progress on modifications needed to support the crewed Artemis II mission, planned for September 2025. Key activities include:

• Refurbishing Mobile Launcher 1 (ML1)
• Adding an emergency egress system at the launch pad
• Upgrading software systems
• Modifying environmental control systems

For Artemis III, scheduled for September 2026, EGS work is focused primarily on ML1 refurbishment and software sustainment. However, the tight one-year turnaround between Artemis II and III leaves little margin to address potential issues or implement lessons learned.

Significant Work Remains for Artemis IV

While some progress has been made toward Artemis IV, currently planned for September 2028, a substantial amount of work remains. Major tasks include:

• Completing construction and assembly of ML2
• Reconfiguring the Vehicle Assembly Building to accommodate the larger Space Launch System Block 1B rocket
• Conducting extensive verification and validation testing of ML2 and other modified systems

Much of this work must be done sequentially and some cannot begin until after the Artemis III launch, creating schedule pressure.

Schedule Risks and Concerns

ML2 Development Challenges

The ML2 project, which is critical for Artemis IV, has faced significant technical challenges, schedule delays, and cost increases since its inception. The contract value has grown from $383 million in 2019 to approximately $1.1 billion as of June 2024. While construction is now underway, risks remain that could further impact the schedule.

Limited Schedule Margin

The current Artemis mission schedule allows little room for delays or unforeseen issues:

• Artemis II and III have minimal margin to address technical challenges or delays from other programs like Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion.
• The planned two-year period between Artemis III and IV may not be sufficient for all required EGS and ML2 activities.

Lack of Schedule Risk Analysis

NASA has not committed to conducting future schedule risk analyses (SRAs) for EGS and ML2. An SRA could provide valuable insights into the likelihood of meeting the Artemis IV launch date and help inform resource decisions.

Cost Estimates for EGS Operations

NASA requires the EGS program to produce annual 5-year cost estimates for its operations phase (Phase E). The most recent estimate from February 2024 projects EGS operations will cost about $3.7 billion through fiscal year 2029. This is an increase from the initial May 2022 estimate of $2.5 billion for fiscal years 2022-2026.

Key points about these estimates:

• They are not considered official program baselines or life-cycle cost estimates.
• NASA does not plan to develop full life-cycle cost estimates due to uncertainty about the long-term duration of Artemis missions.
• The estimates are developed using NASA’s budget formulation process and consider factors like actual performance, new activities, and inflation.

Recommendations and NASA’s Response

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) recommends that NASA ensure the EGS program and ML2 project perform at least one schedule risk analysis prior to beginning integrated operations activities for Artemis IV. This would provide better insight into schedule risks and readiness to support the mission.

NASA partially concurred with this recommendation. The agency plans to continue monitoring schedule risk using existing tools and processes but does not commit to conducting a formal SRA. NASA cites ongoing schedule management activities and plans to report on the integration schedule prior to vehicle stacking.

Summary

The EGS program has made progress in preparing ground systems and facilities for upcoming Artemis missions, but significant challenges remain, particularly for supporting Artemis IV. Key concerns include:

• Limited schedule margin for near-term missions
• Extensive work required to complete and validate ML2
• Lack of comprehensive schedule risk analysis for Artemis IV preparations

While NASA has tools in place to monitor schedules and risks, additional analysis could provide valuable insights to inform decision-making as the agency works to return humans to the Moon. Balancing ambitious mission goals with realistic assessments of ground systems readiness will be critical to the success of the Artemis program.