The GAO report “On the Horizon” highlights three prominent science and technology (S&T) trends with the potential to shape society over the next decade. These trends—advancements in gene editing, space-based manufacturing of semiconductor crystals, and biodegradable bioplastics—offer promise for healthcare, the environment, and technology. However, they also introduce regulatory, economic, social, and environmental implications that need to be carefully managed.
Gene Editing to Treat or Prevent Disease
Gene editing technology, particularly through tools like CRISPR, has made strides in offering potential treatments and cures for genetic disorders. By enabling precise changes in genetic material, gene editing opens possibilities for addressing complex genetic diseases and, in the future, may help improve health outcomes at a generational level.
Overview and Developments
Since CRISPR’s introduction in 2012, gene editing technology has advanced rapidly, with a range of tools now available that can target genetic abnormalities. Currently, gene editing therapies in the U.S. are limited primarily to nonheritable modifications (i.e., changes that do not transfer to offspring). However, other nations have ventured into heritable gene editing experiments, as in the case of China’s 2018 HIV-resistant twin embryos. The ethical, medical, and regulatory challenges associated with heritable editing are considerable, particularly in the U.S., where such modifications face both regulatory hurdles and societal concerns.
Advances in gene editing could lead to three general degrees of availability over the next decade:
Limited Availability: Gene editing for specific conditions may remain limited, especially for therapies that are nonheritable, as is currently the case.
Some Availability: Increased acceptance and technological advancement could result in more nonheritable gene editing options. In this scenario, costs could decrease as production scales, although some conditions, particularly those with smaller patient populations, might remain cost-prohibitive.
Wide Availability: In a scenario where both nonheritable and heritable gene editing is widely available, genetic therapies could shift healthcare by focusing on one-time genetic cures over lifelong treatment regimens.
Implications
Social and Ethical Concerns: The implications of heritable gene editing are complex, with potential generational impacts and ethical considerations. Modifying genes in embryos or reproductive cells raises issues around health equity, as those who cannot afford gene therapies may be left behind, deepening health disparities.
Economic Considerations: The cost of gene therapies remains high, with current treatments like sickle cell gene therapy priced at $2.2 million per patient. High development costs, combined with limited patient populations, continue to keep prices elevated. However, as more therapies enter the market, competition and production improvements could lead to reduced costs.
Regulatory Challenges: Policymakers must address the rapidly evolving landscape of gene editing. This includes federal funding for heritable gene research, regulation of new gene editing tools, and strategies for preventing misuse, such as gene doping in athletics.
Space-based Manufacturing of Semiconductor Crystals
The commercial space sector is transforming from a primarily research and exploration focus to one that includes commercial manufacturing. Space-based semiconductor manufacturing could leverage unique environmental conditions in space, such as microgravity, to enhance crystal quality and produce fewer defects.
Overview and Developments
Semiconductors are essential to modern technologies, including computers, medical devices, renewable energy systems, and communication equipment. Growing demand for next-generation semiconductors, especially those made from materials like gallium nitride and graphene, has led researchers to consider space-based manufacturing as a way to meet quality standards that are difficult to achieve on Earth.
In space, the absence of gravity-induced convection allows for greater precision in semiconductor crystal growth, potentially resulting in higher purity crystals. Space provides an ideal environment for crystal formation due to its natural vacuum, microgravity, and access to solar energy. These characteristics may result in more uniform crystal structures and reduce the need for energy-intensive processing.
Implications
Technological and Economic Implications: Establishing semiconductor manufacturing in space could provide the U.S. with an independent, high-quality supply chain. The current reliance on non-U.S. sources, particularly Asia, for high-purity silicon and other semiconductor materials could be alleviated. However, high capital investments for space-based manufacturing facilities may create barriers, limiting this industry to large companies or government-funded initiatives.
Environmental Concerns: While space-based production could reduce emissions associated with terrestrial manufacturing, rocket launches for transporting materials and manufactured goods could introduce other environmental issues, including ozone depletion. The risks associated with an increase in orbital debris and space traffic add complexity to environmental and security considerations.
Regulatory and Security: As manufacturing moves into orbit, new regulatory and security frameworks are essential. Intellectual property protections, orbital debris mitigation, and security against interference from malicious actors are critical. Additionally, space-based semiconductor facilities, as vital infrastructure, may need to implement robust cybersecurity and physical security measures.
Biodegradable Bioplastics
The widespread use of conventional plastics has led to pollution issues, with microplastics infiltrating ecosystems, water supplies, and even human bodies. Biodegradable bioplastics offer a solution by decomposing faster and more naturally than traditional plastics, presenting a sustainable alternative for single-use items and other plastic products.
Overview and Developments
Today’s bioplastics include materials like polylactic acid (PLA) and polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA), derived from renewable sources such as corn, sugarcane, and algae. These materials can replace conventional plastics in applications like packaging, consumer goods, and textiles. However, challenges remain, such as the need for industrial composting conditions for certain bioplastics like PLA, which limits their biodegradability outside of specialized facilities.
Recent innovations are aiming to make bioplastics that are fully biodegradable under natural conditions. Algae-based bioplastics, for instance, could reduce costs, eliminate reliance on food-based sources, and lower emissions. In addition, researchers have recently developed enzyme-incorporated PLA that degrades in home composting conditions, providing a potential breakthrough in bioplastic disposal.
Implications
Environmental and Health Impacts: While bioplastics decompose faster than traditional plastics, they still release CO₂ as they break down, potentially impacting atmospheric carbon levels. Moreover, certain biodegradable bioplastics could produce acidic byproducts that contribute to ocean acidification.
Market Complexity and Consumer Education: Consumers often encounter challenges in distinguishing biodegradable products from conventional plastics. Labels such as “biodegradable” or “compostable” may mislead consumers if these products only degrade under specific conditions. Policymakers could consider standardized labeling to prevent consumer confusion and support informed disposal practices.
Regulatory Standards: Ensuring clarity around biodegradability claims will be key as bioplastics become more widespread. For example, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has guidelines for “compostable” labeling. Expanding these standards could help minimize consumer confusion and align disposal practices with environmental goals. Additionally, third-party certifications that indicate biodegradability across various environments—industrial compost, soil, or marine—can improve transparency for consumers.
Summary
The trends outlined in the GAO report—gene editing, space-based semiconductor manufacturing, and biodegradable bioplastics—represent scientific advancements with far-reaching implications. Each offers solutions to critical challenges while posing new questions around regulation, economic access, and social impact. With proactive policymaking and responsible innovation, these technologies could advance society while promoting sustainability, equity, and security.
