Sales Opportunities: NASA’s 2024 Civil Space Shortfalls

Mapping the New Frontier

This article provides an in-depth analysis of NASA’s 2024 Civil Space Shortfall Ranking. This document, a consensus of over 1,200 experts from government and private industry, is more than a list of technical problems. It’s a detailed blueprint for the next phase of the space economy. It outlines the specific technology gaps that must be filled to enable a sustainable human presence on the Moon, Mars, and in orbit.

For the non-technical stakeholder, investor, or executive, this article serves as a map, highlighting where the most urgent needs lie and, in turn, where the most significant commercial opportunities are emerging. The analysis shows the top-ranked shortfalls are not in niche science but in foundational infrastructure: power, thermal management, computing, and robotics. These shortfalls are the building blocks for a global space economy projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2032. This article systematically breaks down these 187 challenges, translating them from engineering problems into clear, investable market opportunities.

Understanding the 2024 Civil Space Shortfall Ranking

A New Framework for Space Technology

NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) published the ranking to integrate the community’s most pervasive technical problems and to guide its own technology investments. In essence, NASA is not just exploring space; it’s outlining what it needs to industrialize space. The report identifies 187 shortfalls across 20 capability categories, ranging from Propulsion and Power to Advanced Manufacturing and Orbital Debris.

This document represents a shift. Instead of NASA developing all technology internally (a “push” model), it is signaling its needs to the “whole tech base” (a “pull” model), inviting commercial energy and innovation to provide solutions. This open-sourcing of its problem set is a clear invitation for private industry to co-invest in and build the future of space exploration.

How the Ranking Was Determined

The ranking is built on extensive data. NASA received 1,231 total responses, including 769 from internal NASA stakeholders and 462 from external partners. These responses were sorted into nine stakeholder groups: four internal (like the Artemis program office, ESDMD, and the Science Mission Directorate, SMD) and five external (Large Industry, Small Industry, Academia, Other Government Agencies, and Other).

The final “Integrated List” is not a simple poll. NASA’s inputs received a 2/3 weight, and external scores received the remaining 1/3. This weighting is a critical piece of analysis. The methodology was designed to reflect STMD’s “primary customers” and its “investment strategy,” which explicitly prioritizes the Artemis program and the science goals set by the Decadal Surveys.

This means the integrated ranking is a heavily weighted demand signal from NASA’s most important, and best-funded, programs. For a commercial company, this is a clear signal: solving a problem that is high on this list means solving a problem for NASA’s top-priority customer. This creates a direct path to an anchor-tenant contract, de-risking the business case for technology development.

The Integrated Shortfall List: Key Findings

The top-ranked items from the integrated list reveal a clear and urgent theme: survival and infrastructure. The challenges are not about exotic, far-future science; they are the foundational, practical needs for building and operating a permanent, autonomous outpost in a hostile environment.

An analysis of the top 20 shortfalls shows a focus on fundamental needs. Categories like Thermal Management (Rank #1), Power (Ranks #2, #12), Avionics/Computing (Ranks #3, #6), and Autonomous Robotics (Ranks #5, #9, #11, #18) dominate. This is the equipment list for building a self-sufficient lunar base that can operate without constant human oversight. It’s a market for utilities, construction, and automation.

The following table details the 20 highest-ranked shortfalls from the integrated list, representing the consensus of the entire civil space community.

While the integrated list provides a consensus, the individual stakeholder lists in the ranking document reveal different priorities, creating distinct market tracks for commercial companies.

Track 1: The “Builders” (NASA ESDMD)

The Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate (ESDMD), which runs the Artemis program, is focused on surface operations. Its top-ranked needs are not subtle. All three shortfalls in the Dust Mitigation category are tied for its #1 priority. Its other top priorities include Surviving the Lunar Night (Rank #4) and High-Rate Communications Across The Lunar Surface (Rank #5). This stakeholder represents the “infrastructure” market. They are building a base and need the tools to do it.

Track 2: The “Explorers” (NASA SMD)

The Science Mission Directorate (SMD) is focused on data and autonomy. Its #1 ranked shortfalls (tied) are both in Avionics: “High Performance Onboard Computing” and “Foundational Technologies for Future Avionics”. Its other top needs include Small Spacecraft Propulsion (Rank #3) and Quantum Sensors (Rank #7). This is the “advanced systems” market, focused on next-generation robotic explorers.

Track 3: The “Providers” (Industry)

The private sector’s priorities show what it wants to sell. Large Industry’s #1 priority is High Power Energy Generation on Moon and Mars Surfaces , signaling its readiness to become a lunar utility provider. Small Industry’s list is dominated by In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) – specifically water and oxygen extraction – and Orbital Debris mitigation. This reflects a focus on disruptive, high-growth, niche markets.

These stakeholder lists are effectively a customer discovery tool. The integrated list is a general guide, but the stakeholder lists are a specific customer manual. A startup developing a novel dust-repellent coating might be a low priority for the Science directorate but would be solving the #1 problem for the Artemis program. Conversely, a company with a new AI chip is a perfect fit for SMD. Companies should use these specific lists to identify their precise anchor customer within the NASA ecosystem, dramatically increasing their chances of winning STMD, SBIR, or Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) contracts.

Foundational Infrastructure: Power, Thermal, and Communications

The highest-ranked shortfalls are clustered in a single area: establishing basic utilities. Without power, heat, and connectivity, no sustainable presence is possible. This represents the most immediate and largest market for commercial providers.

Power: Lighting the Lunar and Martian Frontier

The Shortfall: “High Power Energy Generation on Moon and Mars Surfaces” (Rank #2), “Power Management Systems for Long Duration… Missions” (Rank #12), “High Power, Long Distance Energy Transmission” (Rank #32), and “Power and Data Transfer in Dusty Environments” (Rank #34).

The Challenge: Power is the primary resource that dictates the scale of any mission. Solar power, while abundant, faces two major hurdles: the 14-day lunar night and, on Mars, dust accumulation that chokes solar panels. For a permanent base, a continuous, high-wattage power source is non-negotiable. This has driven the need for Fission Surface Power (FSP) – small, compact nuclear reactors. The challenge is not just generation, but also managing and distributing that power over long distances and through abrasive, electrically-charged dust.

Commercial Opportunities: The “lunar energy harvesting market” is a tangible, investable sector, projected to grow from $1.5 billion in 2023 to $6.7 billion by 2032. Another report places the 2025 market at $1.62 billion.

• Fission Surface Power: This is a prime example of NASA’s new “pull” model. NASA and the Department of Energy (DOE) are not building the reactors themselves; they are funding industry to do it. The FSP project’s goal is a 40-kilowatt class system – enough to power 30 households for 10 years – to be demonstrated on the Moon by the early 2030s. The key players awarded contracts for the design concepts include:
  • Westinghouse, partnered with L3Harris.
  • BWX Technologies, partnered with Lockheed Martin.
  • General Atomics, partnered with X-energy and Aerojet Rocketdyne.
• Solar and Distribution: The non-nuclear market is also expanding. Ascent Solar and CisLunar Industries have partnered to create distributed, flexible power solutions for the space market.

NASA documents explicitly state that the Moon is a “testbed for Mars”. The FSP project is designed to be “Mars-forward.” This means companies like Westinghouse, L3Harris, and BWX aren’t just competing for a single 40-kilowatt reactor contract. They are in a race to become the primary power utility provider for two worlds. The company that successfully demonstrates its reactor on the Moon will become the default, flight-proven choice for the far more complex and lucrative Mars architecture, establishing a multi-decade monopoly on off-world nuclear power.

Thermal Management Systems: Surviving the 14-Day Night

The Shortfall: “Survive and operate through the lunar night” (Rank #1).

The Challenge: This is the single most urgent problem identified by the entire space community. The lunar environment is a place of violent extremes. In sunlight, the surface boils at over 100°C (212°F); in darkness, it plunges to -170°C (-274°F) or colder. This 14-day-long “deep freeze” is lethal to electronics, batteries, and mechanisms. Apollo missions simply avoided it. To build a permanent base, this problem must be solved.

Commercial Opportunities: NASA has held “Survive the Night” workshops, explicitly inviting collaboration with commercial partners. This is an open call for solutions.

• Nuclear Systems: One solution is constant heat generation. Zeno Power is developing next-generation Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs), or “nuclear batteries,” that provide constant electricity and heat from radioactive decay. NASA selected a Zeno-led team for a 2027 lunar demonstration.
• Advanced Hardware: Other companies are tackling the problem with thermal hardware – essentially, high-tech insulation, heat pipes, and switches.
  • Advanced Cooling Technologies (ACT), a thermal-management company, explicitly advertises its capability to help systems “survive lunar night”.
  • 3D Systems is collaborating with NASA to additively manufacture (3D print) novel titanium heat pipes that are 50% lighter and more efficient.
  • Other key players in this space include Thermal Space Ltd. and Signia Aerospace (ACE Thermal Systems).

The technology needed to solve the lunar night problem is essentially the most advanced thermal management ever created. This technology has immediate “spin-off” applications on Earth. A company that can brand its products as “tough enough for the lunar night” gains an immense marketing advantage for selling high-performance thermal solutions to terrestrial markets like defense, arctic operations, and high-performance data centers. The R&D is being paid for by space, but the resulting intellectual property is valuable everywhere.

Communication and Navigation: Building LunaNet

The Shortfall: “Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) for In-Orbit and Surface Applications” (Rank #4) and “High-Rate Communications Across The Lunar Surface” (Rank #19).

The Challenge: There is no GPS on the Moon. Missions today rely on NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN) on Earth, which is costly, over-subscribed, and provides limited bandwidth. Furthermore, Earth-based GPS signals that “spill over” to the Moon are extremely weak, unreliable, and suffer from poor geometry, making precision navigation impossible. To enable rovers to drive autonomously, landers to touchdown on a specific point, and astronauts to know where they are, a local lunar comms and navigation network – a “LunaNet” – is essential.

Commercial Opportunities: This is a classic infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) market. The “cislunar infrastructure market” is forecast to grow to over $11.4 billion by 2033 , and the broader “lunar exploration market” is set to reach $12.5 billion in 2025. NASA is actively fostering a commercial supply chain for these services , and the European Space Agency (ESA) has a similar program called Moonlight.

• Network Providers: NASA has already awarded contracts for lunar communication and data services. The leaders in this new “lunar telecom” market include:
  • Intuitive Machines: A CLPS lander provider that is also building its own lunar data and navigation services, positioning itself as a vertically integrated provider.
  • SSC Space U.S. (Swedish Space Corporation): A major ground station provider that is extending its network to lunar services.
  • Kongsberg Satellite Services (KSAT): Another major Earth-orbit provider now expanding to the Moon.
  • Firefly Aerospace and Blue Origin are also key CLPS providers developing comms capabilities.

This is the “picks and shovels” play of the lunar gold rush. The lunar economy analysis shows transportation and resources as the main drivers, but both depend on data. Companies like Intuitive Machines and SSC Space are building the “cell towers” and “ISPs” for the Moon. Every single mission – public, private, scientific, or commercial – that lands on the Moon will need to buy data services from this network. This creates a high-margin, recurring-revenue business model that is insulated from the failure of any single mission, making it one of the most stable and valuable investments in the entire lunar ecosystem.

The Robotic Vanguard: Autonomy and Advanced Manufacturing

With the foundational utilities established, the next set of challenges revolves around doing work. Because of communication delays and the high cost of sending humans, this work must be done by autonomous robots. This cluster of shortfalls defines the “brains and hands” of the off-world workforce.

Autonomous Systems and Robotics: The Workhorse of the New Frontier

The Shortfall: This is one of the most densely-packed and highest-priority categories. Key shortfalls include “Robotic Actuation… for Long-Duration and Extreme Environment Operation” (Rank #5), “Robust, High-Progress-Rate, and Long-Distance Autonomous Surface Mobility” (Rank #9), “Autonomous Guidance and Navigation for Deep Space Missions” (Rank #11), and “Sensing for Autonomous Robotic Operations” (Rank #18).

The Challenge:

• Actuation (Rank #5): Space robots must operate for years without maintenance. Their actuators (motors, joints, and “muscles”) must function flawlessly in a vacuum, at cryogenic temperatures, and while being blasted with radiation – a far harder task than for any Earth-based robot.
• Mobility (Rank #9): NASA isn’t asking for another slow-moving, human-steered rover. The need is for “high-progress-rate” and “long-distance” mobility. These are autonomous vehicles that can travel hundreds of kilometers on their own to build infrastructure or prospect for resources.
• Autonomy (Rank #11): The 20-minute communication delay to Mars makes real-time control impossible. The robot itself must have the intelligence to analyze its surroundings, navigate complex terrain, and make its own decisions.

Commercial Opportunities: The space robotics market is already a significant, high-growth sector.

• Market Size: Projections estimate the market at $5.71 billion in 2025, growing to $12.09 billion by 2034(an 8.7% CAGR). Another report concurs, projecting $5.48 billion in 2025 and $8.16 billion by 2030 (an 8.29% CAGR).
• Key Players: The market includes legacy prime contractors and agile new-space companies :
  • Prime Contractors: Maxar Technologies (a leader in robotic arms) , Northrop Grumman , Lockheed Martin , and MDA Space (builder of the Canadarm).
  • Specialized Companies: Astrobotic (landers and rovers) , Honeybee Robotics (robotics and tools, now owned by Blue Origin) , Intuitive Machines (landers and services) , Motiv Space Systems(robotic arms) , and GITAI (general-purpose robotic arms for space).
  • Surface Mobility: Lunar Outpost is a key player, winning contracts for lunar rovers and excavation.

The high-ranking needs for mobility (#9) and actuation (#5) aren’t just for one-off NASA science missions. They are for work. Companies like Lunar Outpost and GITAI are not just selling robots; they are selling what the robots do. They are creating a “Robotics-as-a-Service” model, where a customer (NASA, a private habitat company, an ISRU plant) can hire a rover to go excavate a site, move cargo, or inspect infrastructure. This shifts the business from a capital-intensive hardware-sale model to a recurring-revenue services model, just like automation in terrestrial logistics.

Avionics: The Brains Behind the Machine

The Shortfall: “High Performance Onboard Computing to Enable Increasingly Complex Operations” (Rank #3) and “Extreme Environment Avionics” (Rank #6).

The Challenge: Standard electronics and computer chips are useless in space. The challenges are threefold:

1. Radiation: The space environment is filled with high-energy particles that can disrupt or destroy electronics. This requires “radiation-hardening” (rad-hardening), a process that makes chips shielded but also, traditionally, very slow and expensive.
2. Latency: With communication delays, the spacecraft cannot wait for instructions from Earth. It must perform complex tasks autonomously, such as landing on Mars or navigating an asteroid field, which requires immense processing power onboard.
3. SWaP (Size, Weight, and Power): All components must be incredibly small, lightweight, and power-efficient.

Commercial Opportunities:

• The HPSC Project: NASA’s solution to the #3 shortfall is the High Performance Spaceflight Computing (HPSC) project. NASA has selected Microchip Technology Inc. to develop this next-generation processor. It’s designed to be 100 times faster than current space-rated computers, providing AI and vector processing capabilities while remaining fault-tolerant and power-efficient.
• Avionics Market: The wider spacecraft avionics market is being driven by the growth of commercial satellite constellations. There is a specific new market for AI- and machine-learning-capable avionics to create “self-driving spacecraft”.

The HPSC chip is a “platform” technology, not just a component. By developing a new, high-performance, standardized “brain” and making it available, NASA is effectively creating the “iPhone” for space. This will unlock a new ecosystem for software and AI companies. The primary business opportunity moving forward won’t just be building the rad-hard chip; it will be developing the autonomous navigation, machine learning, and data processing “apps” that run on it. This single shortfall solution opens an entirely new software market for the space industry.

In-Space Servicing, Assembly & Manufacturing (ISAM)

The Shortfall: “Broad and dependable supply chain for space-qualified robotic hardware, electronics, and associated software” (Rank #40).

The Challenge: ISAM is the concept of building, repairing, and upgrading satellites in orbit, breaking the “single-use” model where a satellite launched is a satellite that can never be fixed. A 2025 U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) report identifies the central challenge as a “chicken-and-egg problem”: satellite operators are hesitant to build serviceable satellites until servicers are available, and servicers are hesitant to launch until customers exist. The #40 shortfall (supply chain) is a key part of this: these advanced robots need their own robust supply chain of parts.

Commercial Opportunities: ISAM is considered a key enabler for the entire future space economy, with the U.S. government releasing a national strategy to support it. The market is in the process of breaking the “chicken-and-egg” problem.

• On-Orbit Servicing & Refueling: This market is now a reality.
  • Northrop Grumman has successfully docked its Mission Extension Vehicle (MEV) to service satellites.
  • Astroscale is a leader in debris removal and satellite life-extension.
  • Orbit Fab is building in-orbit “gas stations” and has a U.S. Space Force contract to deploy a refueling tanker by 2025.
• Supply Chain: The #40 shortfall points to a less-visible but critical opportunity. The companies building the “hero” robots (like Maxar, MDA, Motiv) will need suppliers for space-qualified bearings, connectors, sensors, and software. This is a massive B2B market for high-reliability components.

Advanced Manufacturing

The Shortfall: This category is distinct from ISAM, focusing on on-demand production. Key needs include “In-Space and On-Surface Manufacturing of Parts/Products from Surface and Terrestrial Feedstocks” (Rank #92) and “Additive Manufacturing for New and High-Performance Materials” (Rank #149).

The Challenge: Launching every single tool, spare part, and structure from Earth is prohibitively expensive. The goal is to 3D-print parts on-demand in space or on the Moon, using either feedstock brought from Earth or recycled materials.

Commercial Opportunities: This market is rapidly bifurcating into two distinct business models:

1. Model 1: Manufacturing in Space for Earth. Using the unique microgravity environment to produce items impossible to make on Earth, then returning them for sale. The primary market is for high-value, low-mass products like flawless fiber optics, advanced semiconductors, and complex pharmaceuticals.
   • Key Players: Varda Space Industries is a leader, launching “factories in space” to manufacture pharmaceuticals and has launched its first test satellite. Axiom Space is building its commercial station in part to be a research and manufacturing platform.
2. Model 2: Manufacturing in Space for Space. Using 3D printing to build the large-scale infrastructure needed for exploration, such as rocket components, tools, and habitats.
   • Key Players: Relativity Space is pioneering this by 3D-printing its entire launch vehicles. ICON, a terrestrial 3D-printing construction company, has NASA contracts to develop lunar surface construction systems.

These shortfalls signal the beginning of an off-world industrial revolution. Model 1 (Varda) creates a new, high-margin supply chain for the pharma and semiconductor industries. Model 2 (Relativity, ICON) solves the “tyranny of the rocket fairing” – the limitation that you can only launch things that fit inside a rocket’s nose cone. By manufacturing in situ, they can build structures (like telescopes or habitats) that are orders of magnitude larger, fundamentally changing what is possible in space.

Enabling Exploration: Propulsion, Logistics, and Surface Operations

This group of technologies is focused on movement and industrial-scale work. It covers how we get to deep space, how we refuel, how we land heavy equipment, and how we build the infrastructure and extract resources once we are there.

Propulsion: The Engines of the Deep Space Economy

The Shortfall: The highest-ranked propulsion needs are all next-generation, high-efficiency systems: “Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) for Human Exploration” (Rank #8), “Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) for Human Exploration” (Rank #13), and “Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) – High Specific Impulse” (Rank #36).

The Challenge: Chemical rockets are fast and powerful but “gas guzzlers.” They are inefficient for long-distance travel.

• SEP (Rank #36): Uses large solar arrays to generate electricity, which powers an ion thruster. This is extremely fuel-efficient (“high specific impulse”) but has very low thrust. It’s the “hybrid-electric” option, ideal for robotic cargo missions or satellites that have a lot of time to get where they are going.
• NEP (Rank #8): The same as SEP, but it replaces the solar arrays with a compact nuclear reactor. This allows it to operate with high power far from the sun (e.g., to Jupiter or Saturn) and is perfect for hauling heavy cargo to Mars.
• NTP (Rank #13): The “nuclear-powered sports car.” It uses the reactor’s raw heat to directly superheat a propellant (like liquid hydrogen) and fire it out a nozzle. This provides high thrust and high efficiency, a combination no other engine can match. This is the key technology for cutting the transit time to Mars for human missions, reducing crew radiation exposure.

Commercial Opportunities: The space propulsion market is a massive, high-tech sector projected to reach $21.2 billion by 2030. The demand is driven by satellite launches and deep-space missions.

• Key Players: This market is dominated by prime contractors and specialized startups.
  • Launch & Prime: SpaceX , Blue Origin , Aerojet Rocketdyne (an L3Harris company) , United Launch Alliance (ULA).
  • Nuclear: BWX Technologies , General Atomics , Lockheed Martin.
  • Electric & Niche: Agile Space Industries , Benchmark Space Systems , Exotrail.

The high ranking of both low-thrust NEP/SEP (#8, #36) and high-thrust NTP (#13) signals that NASA is planning a “two-speed” logistics architecture. The efficient-but-slow systems (NEP/SEP) will form the “slow cargo” fleet, likely operated by commercial logistics companies, to pre-position cargo on the Moon or Mars. The powerful-and-fast system (NTP) will be the “human express,” moving astronauts quickly to minimize risk. This creates two distinct, parallel, multi-billion-dollar markets for engine development, one for cargo and one for crew.

Cryogenic Fluid Management: The Deep Space Supply Chain

The Shortfall: “In-space and On-surface, Long-duration Storage of Cryogenic Propellant” (Rank #17) and “In-space and On-surface Transfer of Cryogenic Fluids” (Rank #21).

The Challenge: The best rocket fuels (liquid hydrogen, liquid oxygen) are “cryogenic,” meaning they are liquids only at extremely cold temperatures. They constantly want to boil. In space, heat from the sun causes this “boil-off,” literally evaporating the fuel. Furthermore, in zero-g, the liquid and gas mix into a “slosh” , making it impossible to know how much fuel is in the tank or how to pump it. Solving this is the key to enabling in-space refueling.

Commercial Opportunities: This is the foundational technology for an in-space refueling market, which is critical for making deep space missions reusable and affordable.

• Market: The “space in-orbit refueling market” is growing rapidly, with one report citing a 12.4% CAGR. The demand is driven by satellite life extension and lunar logistics.
• Key Players:
  • Orbit Fab has established itself as a leader, developing the “gas stations” for space. It has a U.S. Space Force contract for a GEO refueling tanker and is developing a standardized “RAFTI” fueling port.
  • Prime contractors like Lockheed Martin , Northrop Grumman , and Astroscale are all developing servicing and refueling capabilities.

The high ranking of these two shortfalls (#17, #21) shows NASA considers them a primary barrier. The company that can create a reliable, flight-proven “cryo-cooler” and zero-g transfer pump holds the key to the entire deep-space economy. This technology is the “gas pump”. Without it, propellant depots (the “gas stations”) can’t work. And without propellant depots, the ISRU market (the “refinery”) has no customer. This technology connects the entire economic chain.

Entry, Descent & Landing (EDL): The “Seven Minutes of Terror”

The Shortfall: “High-Mass Mars Entry and Descent Systems” (Rank #22) and a cluster of sensor needs: “Navigation Sensors for Precision Landing” (Rank #24), “Terrain Mapping Capabilities” (Rank #25), and “Advanced Algorithms… for Precision Landing” (Rank #26).

The Challenge: Landing a 1-ton rover (like Curiosity) on Mars is hard. Landing a 20-ton human habitat is, with current technology, impossible. The Martian atmosphere is a “worst-of-both-worlds” problem: it’s thick enough to cause massive heating, but too thin to slow a heavy object with a parachute. The only viable solution is “supersonic retropropulsion” – firing powerful rockets forward into the supersonic airstream to decelerate. This requires new navigation sensors (Lidar, terrain-matching cameras) to land on a precise spot and avoid hazards.

Commercial Opportunities: This capability is central to the entire Artemis and Mars architecture.

• Launch & Landing Providers: The market for heavy landers is dominated by a few key players.
  • SpaceX: The company’s reusable Falcon 9 boosters already use supersonic retropropulsion to land. This has given them an unparalleled, flight-proven dataset on the physics of this exact problem, positioning them as a primary provider for this technology.
  • Blue Origin: NASA awarded the company a $3.4 billion contract to develop its “Blue Moon” human lunar lander, making it a prime contractor for large-scale EDL systems.
• Sensor Suites: A sub-market exists for the advanced sensors (Lidar, cameras, inertial measurement units) that enable “precision landing”.

Excavation, Construction & Outfitting

The Shortfall: This category covers the “blue-collar” work of building a base. Key shortfalls include “Robotic regolith manipulation and site preparation” (Rank #102), “Excavation of hard/compacted/icy material” (Rank #104), and “On-surface robotic assembly” (Ranks #148, #159).

The Challenge: The lunar surface is a hazardous construction site. The regolith (soil) is abrasive, the temperatures are extreme, and there are seismic “moonquakes”. Hardware must be autonomous, hyper-reliable, and capable of digging for years to support industrial-scale operations.

Commercial Opportunities: This is the birth of the “off-world construction” market, which directly services the ISRU and habitat sectors.

• Key Players:
  • Lunar Outpost is a U.S. company developing rovers for excavation and logistics, and has won NASA contracts for lunar surface operations.
  • GITAI is a Japanese startup developing general-purpose robotic arms for construction and maintenance tasks.
  • BigDipper Exploration Technologies is a startup focused on autonomous robots for resource excavation.
  • NASA’s “Break the Ice” challenge is actively funding innovation in this area, pushing for systems that can excavate icy regolith.

In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU): Living Off the Land

The Shortfall: This is a cornerstone of sustainability. The top ISRU needs are “Extraction and separation of water from extraterrestrial surface material” (Rank #53), “Perform resource reconnaissance to locate… resources” (Rank #64), and “Extraction and separation of oxygen from extraterrestrial minerals” (Rank #68).

The Challenge: Instead of launching all water and propellant from Earth, ISRU aims to “live off the land”. This involves two primary paths:

1. Water Mining (Rank #53): Prospecting for and mining water ice, which is concentrated in extremely cold, permanently dark craters at the lunar poles.
2. Oxygen from Rock (Rank #68): Heating lunar regolith (rock) to 950°C or more to release the oxygen chemically bonded within its minerals.

Commercial Opportunities: ISRU is one of the most active commercial sectors, as it’s the key to an independent lunar economy.

• Market: Government agencies (NASA, ESA) and commercial companies (SpaceX, Blue Origin) are “surged” with investments in ISRU.
• Key Players: A diverse group of companies is building the “refineries” for the Moon:
  • Paragon Space Development
  • Blue Origin
  • Airbus
  • SpaceX
  • Sierra Space (which has successfully tested its oxygen extraction system)
  • Interlune (a new company focused on lunar resources).

The #1 product of lunar ISRU is not drinking water; it’s rocket propellant. The mined water (H2O) is split into hydrogen (fuel) and oxygen (oxidizer). The oxygen extracted from regolith is also primarily for propellant. This creates a self-sustaining economic loop: companies mine resources to create propellant, which is then sold to the in-orbit refueling depots , which then refuel the landers and tugs that service the entire cislunar economy. This closes the loop and makes space logistics profitable.

Dust Mitigation: The Unseen Mission-Killer

The Shortfall: “Passive Dust Mitigation Technologies” (Rank #47), “Active Dust Mitigation Technologies” (Rank #56), and “Advanced Modeling… to Characterize Dust Effects” (Rank #63).

The Challenge: This was the #1 priority for the Artemis (ESDMD) program. Lunar dust, or regolith, is not like Earth dust. It is not eroded by water or wind, so it is sharp, jagged, and abrasive like microscopic glass. It is also electrostatically charged, so it clings to everything. It grinds down seals and mechanisms, covers solar panels, and degrades thermal radiators.

Commercial Opportunities: This is a small but critical “component-level” market. NASA is actively developing a portfolio of solutions and looking to industry to provide them.

• Active Technologies: These require power. The leading solution is NASA’s “Electrodynamic Dust Shield” (EDS), which uses an electric field to repel dust. This technology is being flown on commercial landers, including Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost. Space Dust Research & Technologies won a NASA prize for its electron-beam shield.
• Passive Technologies: These are “always-on” solutions like special materials and coatings. Voyager Technologies has developed a “Clear Dust-Repellent Coating”. ATSP Innovations is developing dust-tolerant polymers and bearings.

The opportunity here is not just to sell a “dust shield.” It’s to sell dust-tolerant components. A company that develops a passive coating can license that technology to every single hardware manufacturer. The company that builds a truly dust-proof connector or bearing will see its product become the industry standard. Solving dust mitigation is a “value-add” that makes every other piece of lunar hardware more reliable and valuable.

Surface Systems: The Lunar Logistics Chain

The Shortfall: This category covers the practical, day-to-day logistics of running a base. This includes “Surface-based lunar logistics management” (Rank #45), “Surface-based food management” (Rank #46), and “Surface-based fluid management” (Ranks #54, #60).

The Challenge: We are moving from short “sortie” missions to a sustained presence. This creates a new set of challenges: How do you efficiently package, transport, and track cargo? How do you handle trash? How do you manage food and water supplies for months at a time? This is the unglamorous, “back-end” work of exploration.

Commercial Opportunities: This shortfall signals the beginning of a true lunar supply chain.

• Key Players: NASA is already funding this. In April 2024, the agency selected Intuitive Machines, Lunar Outpost, and Astrobotic to advance lunar surface logistics and rover capabilities.

The high ranking of “logistics management” shows that NASA is thinking beyond the lander and about the supply chain. The company that develops the “463L pallet” or “intermodal container” for the Moon – a standardized, efficient, robot-handleable container – will become the backbone of lunar logistics. This is an opportunity for companies to apply proven terrestrial logistics principles (like those used by UPS or Maersk) to a new, high-growth market.

Sustaining Human Presence and Scientific Discovery

This final group of shortfalls covers the core reason for this infrastructure: supporting human life and enabling scientific exploration. These represent the “end-user” markets that the infrastructure will support.

Advanced Habitation Systems: Living in Deep Space

The Shortfall: This category is packed with high-priority items related to keeping astronauts alive and healthy. “Environmental Monitoring for Habitation” (Rank #7), “Fire Safety for Habitation” (Rank #10), “Radiation Countermeasures (Crew and Habitat)” (Rank #15), and “Radiation Monitoring and Modeling” (Rank #16).

The Challenge:

• Monitoring (Rank #7): A sealed habitat is a closed loop. Microbes, particulates, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) can build up to toxic levels. This requires constant, autonomous monitoring.
• Fire (Rank #10): Fire in microgravity behaves differently. Flames can be cooler and soot can spread in clouds, making detection and suppression extremely difficult. A fire is one of the most dangerous events possible.
• Radiation (Ranks #15, #16): Outside Earth’s protective magnetic field, astronauts are exposed to a constant barrage of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) and unpredictable Solar Proton Events (SPEs). This is a major long-term health and cancer risk that must be mitigated with shielding (like water or regolith) or new medical countermeasures.

Commercial Opportunities: This is the enabling technology for the commercial space station market. This market is projected to reach $21.2 billion by 2032, growing at a staggering 58.8% CAGR.

• Commercial Stations: NASA is actively funding its replacement for the ISS. The main competitors are:
  • Axiom Space (building modules to attach to the ISS, which will later become a free-flying station).
  • Blue Origin and Sierra Space (partnered on the “Orbital Reef” station).
  • Starlab (a joint venture of Voyager Space and Airbus).
• Component Market: These stations will create a B2B market for the advanced sensors, fire suppression systems, and radiation detectors identified in the shortfalls.

The renders of commercial space stations are impressive, but the real challenge isn’t the metal shell. It’s the life support. The high ranking of “boring” systems like air monitoring (#7) and fire safety (#10) shows that these are the true unsolved problems for long-duration habitation. The company that can build a hyper-reliable, low-maintenance, flight-proven environmental control and life support system (ECLSS) will be a critical supplier to every commercial station.

Sensors and Instruments

The Shortfall: “Advanced Sensor Components: Imaging” (Rank #20).

The Challenge: Science and navigation both require “eyes” that are far more capable than standard cameras. This means developing “hyperspectral” imagers, which see in hundreds of wavelengths to identify minerals at a glance. These sensitive detectors also need to operate without bulky, power-hungry cooling systems.

Commercial Opportunities: This is a specialized, high-margin market. Companies like Teledyne e2v are leaders in developing these advanced CMOS and CCD sensors for space missions. The “NewSpace” market is creating new demand for these high-performance sensors on commercial imaging and science satellites, expanding the market beyond just government agencies.

Advanced Materials & Structures

The Shortfall: “Micrometeoroid-Robust Protection of In-space Observatories” (Rank #81) and “Advanced designs for lightweight inflatable surface elements” (Rank #132).

The Challenge: Mass is the enemy; every kilogram launched from Earth is expensive. Inflatable habitats (or “softgoods”) offer the best “volume-to-mass” ratio, packing down small for launch and then expanding to create large living spaces. The challenge is that this “fabric” must be a multi-layer composite of materials like Kevlar that is strong enough to hold air and tough enough to stop micrometeoroid (MMOD) impacts – tiny particles traveling at orbital speeds.

Commercial Opportunities:

• Inflatable Habitats: Sierra Space is a leader with its LIFE (Large Integrated Flexible Environment) habitat, which is a core component of the Orbital Reef station. Lockheed Martin is also developing inflatable habitat prototypes.
• Advanced Materials: The B2B opportunity is in supplying the advanced fibers and composites. Key players include Teijin and EURO-COMPOSITES. Companies developing new “magic material” for space are finding commercial interest.

The technology for inflatables is a “dual-use” breakthrough. The same high-strength, lightweight, radiation-resistant material used to build a habitat can also be used to build other large deployable structures, like communications antennas or large solar arrays. A company that perfects this advanced material can sell to both the human exploration market and the more established satellite hardware market.

Small Spacecraft

The Shortfall: “Small Spacecraft Propulsion” (Rank #41) and “Autonomy, Edge Computation, and Interoperable Networking for Small Spacecraft” (Rank #48).

The Challenge: The small satellite (SmallSat) revolution was built on cheap access to Low Earth Orbit (LEO), often by “hitching” a ride. For these satellites to become more capable – to move to higher orbits, perform complex maneuvers, or travel to the Moon and beyond – they need their own highly efficient engines and the “brains” to operate autonomously.

Commercial Opportunities: The smallsat market is maturing, creating a massive new market for high-performance components. The “satellite propulsion market” is projected to reach $5.19 billion by 2030 , with the “small satellite” platform segment projected to have the highest market share. This demand is driven by companies needing cost-effective electric propulsion. Key players like SAFRAN and L3Harris are investing heavily in this specific market.

Orbital Debris

The Shortfall: “Mitigation of New Orbital Debris Generation” (Rank #95) and “Remediation of Large Debris” (Rank #135).

The Challenge: “Space junk” – defunct satellites, rocket stages, and collision fragments – is an existential threat to the entire space economy.

• Mitigation (Rank #95): This means new satellites must be able to remove themselves from orbit at the end of their life (e.g., within 5 years).
• Remediation (Rank #135): This means actively going up and removing the most dangerous existing junk – a “tow truck” for space.

Commercial Opportunities: This is a new market created by necessity. The growth of commercial constellations (like Starlink) has made the problem worse , which in turn creates the business case for cleaning it up.

• Active Debris Removal (ADR): Government agencies are now funding commercial ADR missions.
  • Astroscale: A market leader, it has contracts with the UK Space Agency and is a key player in on-orbit servicing.
  • ClearSpace: This Swiss startup won a major contract from ESA to remove a large piece of debris.
• Mitigation Technologies: A B2B market for “de-orbit” systems. Busek, for example, is developing thrusters specifically for smallsats to deorbit themselves.

The orbital debris problem is a direct consequence of the space economy’s success. The more satellites we launch, the more valuable the orbital “real estate” becomes, and the more critical it is to protect it. This means the market for debris removal and mitigation will grow in direct proportion to the rest of the space economy. While legal and political challenges exist (you can’t legally “salvage” another country’s satellite without permission) , the demand for ADR services is becoming an unavoidable cost of doing business in space.

Miscellaneous: Planetary Defense

The Shortfall: “Protect Earth from Destructive Natural Impacts (Planetary Defense)” (Rank #42).

The Challenge: This is the task of finding, tracking, and deflecting near-Earth objects (NEOs), like asteroids, that pose a collision threat to Earth. NASA’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission, which successfully hit an asteroid to change its orbit, proved this is possible.

Commercial Opportunities: This is a government-led, national security-style mission. The commercial opportunity here is not for a startup to offer “asteroid defense as a service.” It is a classic defense-contracting model. The U.S. government and its partners will be the customer. The opportunity for companies is to sell the hardware – the advanced telescopes, sensors, and high-speed interceptor spacecraft – to the government agencies (NASA, ESA) that are running the planetary defense mission. The DART mission, built and operated for NASA by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) , is the perfect model for this.

Summary

The 2024 NASA Civil Space Shortfall Ranking is far more than an internal technical document. It is a comprehensive, data-driven blueprint for the next $1 trillion phase of the global space economy. The 187 shortfalls are not just a list of problems; they are a 187-item request for proposals (RFP) to the entire commercial sector.

The analysis of this ranking reveals a clear, consensus-driven strategy. The community’s most urgent needs are not for exotic science but for foundational, industrial infrastructure. The high-ranking clusters in Power, Thermal Management, Autonomous Robotics, and Habitation systems show that the priority is building a permanent, self-sustaining, and commercially-viable presence on the Moon and in orbit.

For companies, the opportunities are vast and fall into several clear categories:

1. Utility Providers: Solving the shortfalls in Power (Rank #2) and Communications (Rank #4) creates the “utility” companies that will sell electricity and data to every other mission.
2. Industrial Providers: Solving shortfalls in Robotics (Rank #5), Excavation (Rank #102), and ISRU (Rank #53) creates the “industrial” companies that will build the infrastructure and refine the resources.
3. Logistics and Servicing: Solving shortfalls in Cryogenic Management (Rank #17) and Orbital Debris (Rank #95) creates the “supply chain” and “logistics” companies that will refuel, repair, and maintain assets in space.
4. Component Suppliers: Solving shortfalls in Avionics (Rank #3), Dust Mitigation (Rank #47), and Advanced Materials (Rank #132) creates the “B2B” suppliers that provides the high-performance components for every other system.

This document is the roadmap. The companies that can successfully answer these calls will be the ones who build the bridges, power plants, and supply chains for the new off-world frontier.