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The United States’ current path toward returning humans to the Moon—primarily through NASA’s Artemis program—is facing mounting financial and logistical difficulties. Anchored by the Space Launch System (SLS), Orion capsule, and supporting legacy infrastructure, the program has suffered from persistent cost overruns, technical issues, and extended delays. A policy paper by Rand Simberg, published by the Reason Foundation, advocates for replacing this outdated approach with a commercial space-led strategy based on reusable technology, competitive contracting, and flexible mission architecture. This article presents the key points of the study and outlines a practical path forward. The original paper can be accessed here.
The Problems with NASA’s Current Lunar Program
Excessive Costs and Delays
The Artemis program was conceived with the intention of building upon NASA’s legacy. However, it has instead inherited many of the inefficiencies of past programs. By 2025, the program’s cumulative costs are projected to reach $93 billion, with each Artemis mission potentially costing around $4.1 billion. These numbers are driven largely by the use of sole-source, cost-plus contracts that do not incentivize efficiency or innovation.
One major component, the SLS rocket, is not reusable and relies on technology that dates back to the Space Shuttle era. Its main engines—the RS-25—were originally designed for multiple flights, but are now expended after each use. This results in each engine costing upwards of $100 million. Similarly, the Orion spacecraft, while intended to carry astronauts to lunar orbit, has experienced technical setbacks, including issues with its heat shield.
Outdated Infrastructure
The Artemis architecture depends heavily on infrastructure carried over from previous NASA missions. For example, the Mobile Launcher 2 (ML-2), required for future SLS missions, has ballooned in cost to nearly $3 billion, six times its original estimate. Unlike modern launch systems developed by commercial companies, NASA’s infrastructure remains inflexible, costly, and inefficient.
Design Constraints and Technical Inefficiencies
The SLS vehicle uses liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen propellants, which, while technically efficient, lead to larger tanks, more structural mass, and increased drag. Its reliance on solid rocket boosters (SRBs) causes intense acoustic vibration, limiting the kinds of payloads it can carry. Furthermore, SLS and Orion require intermediary stops such as the Gateway, a planned lunar orbital platform that adds to the complexity and cost without offering clear benefits for near-term lunar missions.
The Case for a Commercial Space Strategy
Proven Capability and Cost Efficiency
Companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and United Launch Alliance have made significant progress in developing reliable, reusable rockets. The Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy have demonstrated a strong safety and performance record, with hundreds of successful launches. These systems offer dramatically lower costs: for example, a Falcon Heavy launch is estimated at around $100 million, compared to over $4 billion for an SLS launch.
The emerging Starship system, currently undergoing flight testing, promises to be fully reusable and capable of carrying more than 100 metric tons to orbit at a fraction of current government costs. Blue Origin’s New Glenn and ULA’s Vulcan Centaur also show strong potential for delivering payloads to lunar orbit efficiently.
Modular and Flexible Mission Architecture
Instead of a single, costly launch carrying all mission elements, the commercial approach relies on multiple launches of smaller payloads—equipment, fuel, habitats—that can be assembled in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) or lunar orbit. This modular strategy mirrors logistics methods used successfully in the construction of the International Space Station (ISS)and enables redundancy and resilience. If a payload is lost, the mission doesn’t fail entirely—it’s simply replaced.
This architecture allows commercial vehicles like Crew Dragon, Blue Moon, or Starship’s Human Landing System (HLS) variant to be integrated as needed, based on mission requirements.
Benefits of Transitioning to Commercial Leadership
Massive Cost Savings
By replacing the current architecture with commercial alternatives, NASA could potentially save up to $5.25 billion annually. These savings come from ending expenditures on SLS, Orion, EUS (Exploration Upper Stage), the new launch tower, and Gateway. These funds could then be reinvested in a commercial partnership program that mirrors the successful Commercial Crew Program, which has already demonstrated lower costs and faster development timelines.
Increased Launch Cadence and Improved Reliability
A high flight rate enhances launch reliability through repetition, training, and iterative improvement. SpaceX has proven this with its rapid flight schedule for Falcon 9. Conversely, SLS has only launched once since its development began more than a decade ago, and it cannot support the tempo needed for sustained lunar exploration.
Commercial systems allow for multiple launches per year, enabling frequent resupply and broader mission planning. With enough flights, the loss of any single payload becomes manageable, and insurance costs decrease due to demonstrated reliability.
Technological Modernization
Private companies adopt modern technologies and are unburdened by legacy systems or political workforce commitments. This has led to significant innovation in reusability, propulsion, and manufacturing techniques. The competition among providers also drives rapid evolution in spacecraft design, making the sector more agile than NASA’s cost-plus environment.
Strategic Global Leadership
By embracing the commercial space sector, the U.S. can maintain a leading role in the global space race. China’s Chang’e program has demonstrated serious interest in lunar resource extraction and long-term presence. The U.S. can respond with a decentralized, market-driven space infrastructure that is flexible, scalable, and economically sustainable.
Key Recommendations
- Immediately cancel the SLS, Orion, and associated infrastructure (ML-2, EUS) to free up resources.
- Transition NASA’s lunar goals to a public-private partnership model using existing commercial providers.
- Encourage mission designs that assume multiple launches, in-orbit assembly, and payload redundancy.
- Adopt fixed-price contracting to increase accountability and reduce costs.
- Reallocate legacy NASA and contractor workforces to support scientific research, systems integration, and oversight roles.
Summary
The current government-led approach to returning humans to the Moon has proven financially and operationally unsustainable. With over a decade of delays and tens of billions spent on legacy systems, the Artemis program risks becoming an expensive historical echo rather than a forward-looking achievement. The commercial space sector, by contrast, offers tested vehicles, demonstrated reliability, and an economic model suited for the 21st century.
By shifting leadership of lunar return efforts to private companies, supported through structured partnerships with NASA, the United States can accelerate its lunar objectives, reduce taxpayer burden, and establish a resilient presence on the Moon. Such a shift would not just be a policy correction—it would represent a strategic realignment that leverages American innovation, enhances competitiveness, and redefines what is possible in space exploration. The original policy study, titled Why Commercial Space Should Lead the U.S. Return to the Moon, is available here.
10 Best-Selling Books About Elon Musk
Elon Musk
Walter Isaacson’s biography follows Elon Musk’s life from his upbringing in South Africa through the building of PayPal, SpaceX, Tesla, and other ventures. The book focuses on decision-making under pressure, engineering-driven management, risk tolerance, and the interpersonal dynamics that shaped Musk’s companies and public persona, drawing a continuous timeline from early influences to recent business and product cycles.
Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future
Ashlee Vance presents a narrative biography that links Musk’s personal history to the founding and scaling of Tesla and SpaceX. The book emphasizes product ambition, factory and launch-site realities, leadership style, and the operational constraints behind headline achievements. It also covers setbacks, funding pressures, and the management choices that made Musk both influential in technology and controversial in public life.
Liftoff: Elon Musk and the Desperate Early Days That Launched SpaceX
Eric Berger reconstructs SpaceX’s earliest phase, when technical failures, schedule slips, and financing risk threatened the company’s survival. The book centers on Musk’s role as founder and chief decision-maker while highlighting engineers, mission teams, and launch operations. Readers get a detailed account of how early launch campaigns, investor expectations, and engineering tradeoffs shaped SpaceX’s culture and trajectory.
Reentry: SpaceX, Elon Musk, and the Reusable Rockets That Launched a Second Space Age
Also by Eric Berger, this book explains how SpaceX pushed reusable rocketry from uncertain experiments into repeatable operations. It tracks the technical, financial, and organizational choices behind landing attempts, iterative design changes, and reliability improvements. Musk is presented as a central driver of deadlines and risk posture, while the narrative stays grounded in how teams translated high-level direction into hardware and flight outcomes.
Power Play: Tesla, Elon Musk, and the Bet of the Century
Tim Higgins examines Tesla’s transformation from a niche automaker into a mass-production contender, with Musk as the primary strategist and public face. The book covers internal conflict, production bottlenecks, financing stress, executive turnover, and the consequences of making manufacturing speed a defining business strategy. It reads as a business history of Tesla that ties corporate governance and product decisions directly to Musk’s leadership approach.
Insane Mode: How Elon Musk’s Tesla Sparked an Electric Revolution
Hamish McKenzie tells Tesla’s story through the lens of product launches, market skepticism, and the organizational strain of rapid scaling. Musk appears as both brand amplifier and operational catalyst, while the narrative highlights the role of teams and supply chains in making electric vehicles mainstream. The book is written for nontechnical readers who want context on EV adoption, Tesla’s business model, and Musk’s influence on expectations in the auto industry.
Ludicrous: The Unvarnished Story of Tesla Motors
Edward Niedermeyer offers an investigative look at Tesla’s early and mid-stage growth, emphasizing the tension between engineering reality, marketing narratives, and investor expectations. Musk’s leadership is examined alongside product delays, quality concerns, and strategic messaging, with attention to how a high-profile CEO can shape both market perception and internal priorities. The result is a critical business narrative focused on what it took to keep Tesla expanding.
SpaceX: Elon Musk and the Final Frontier
Brad Bergan presents an accessible overview of SpaceX’s development and its place in the modern space industry, with Musk as the central figure connecting financing, engineering goals, and public messaging. The book describes major programs, launch milestones, and the economic logic of lowering launch costs. It also situates Musk’s influence within the broader ecosystem of government contracts, commercial customers, and competitive pressure.
The Elon Musk Method: Business Principles from the World’s Most Powerful Entrepreneur
Randy Kirk frames Musk as a case study in execution, product focus, and decision-making speed, translating observed patterns into general business lessons. The book discusses leadership behaviors, hiring expectations, prioritization, and the use of aggressive timelines, while keeping the focus on how Musk’s style affects organizational output. It is positioned for readers interested in entrepreneurship and management practices associated with Musk-led companies.
Elon Musk: A Mission to Save the World
Anna Crowley Redding provides a biography-style account that emphasizes Musk’s formative experiences and the stated motivations behind Tesla and SpaceX. The book presents his career as a sequence of high-stakes projects, explaining how big technical goals connect to business choices and public visibility. It is written in clear language for general readers who want a straightforward narrative of Musk’s life, work, and the controversies that follow disruptive companies.
10 Best-Selling SpaceX Books
Liftoff: Elon Musk and the Desperate Early Days That Launched SpaceX
This narrative-driven SpaceX history focuses on the company’s earliest, most uncertain years, following the engineering, leadership, and operational decisions behind the first Falcon 1 attempts. It emphasizes how tight budgets, launch failures, and rapid iteration shaped SpaceX’s culture and set the foundation for later achievements in commercial spaceflight and reusable rockets.
Reentry: SpaceX, Elon Musk, and the Reusable Rockets that Launched a Second Space Age
Centered on the push to land and reuse orbital-class boosters, this book explains how SpaceX turned Falcon 9 reusability from a risky concept into a repeatable operational system. It connects engineering tradeoffs, test failures, launch cadence, and business pressure into a clear account of how reuse affected pricing, reliability, and the modern launch market.
SpaceX: Making Commercial Spaceflight a Reality
Written in an accessible explanatory style, this overview links SpaceX’s design philosophy to outcomes such as simpler manufacturing, vertically integrated production, and faster development cycles. It also frames how NASA partnerships and fixed-price contracting helped reshape the U.S. launch industry, with SpaceX as a central example of commercial spaceflight becoming routine.
SpaceX: Starship to Mars – The First 20 Years
This SpaceX book places Starship in the broader arc of the company’s first two decades, tying early Falcon programs to the scale of fully reusable systems. It explains why Starship’s architecture differs from Falcon 9, what has to change to support high flight rates, and how long-duration goals like Mars transport drive requirements for heat shields, engines, and rapid turnaround.
SpaceX’s Dragon: America’s Next Generation Spacecraft
Focusing on the Dragon spacecraft family, this account explains capsule design choices, cargo and crew mission needs, and how spacecraft operations differ from rocket operations. It provides a readable path through docking, life-support constraints, recovery logistics, and reliability considerations that matter when transporting people and supplies to orbit through NASA-linked programs.
SpaceX: Elon Musk and the Final Frontier
This photo-rich SpaceX history uses visuals and concise text to trace milestones from early launches to newer systems, making it suitable for readers who want context without technical density. It highlights facilities, vehicles, and mission highlights while explaining how Falcon 9, Dragon, and Starship fit into SpaceX’s long-term strategy in the private space industry.
SpaceX From The Ground Up: 7th Edition
Designed as a structured guide, this book summarizes SpaceX vehicles, launch sites, and mission progression in a reference-friendly format. It is especially useful for readers who want a clear overview of Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon variants, and Starship development context, with an emphasis on how launch services and cadence influence SpaceX’s market position.
Rocket Billionaires: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and the New Space Race
This industry narrative explains how SpaceX emerged alongside other private space efforts, showing how capital, contracts, and competitive pressure influenced design and launch decisions. SpaceX appears as a recurring anchor point as the book covers the shift from government-dominated space activity to a market where reusable rockets and rapid development cycles reshape expectations.
The Space Barons: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and the Quest to Colonize the Cosmos
This book compares leadership styles and program choices across major private space players, with SpaceX as a principal thread in the story. It connects SpaceX’s execution pace to broader outcomes such as launch market disruption, NASA partnership models, and the changing economics of access to orbit, offering a balanced, journalistic view for nontechnical readers.
Space Race 2.0: SpaceX, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, NASA, and the Privatization of the Final Frontier
This wide-angle look at privatized space activity places SpaceX within an ecosystem of competitors, partners, and regulators. It clarifies how NASA procurement, launch infrastructure, and commercial passenger and cargo missions intersect, while showing how SpaceX’s approach to reuse and production scale helped define expectations for the modern commercial spaceflight era.
What Questions Does This Article Answer
- What are the main challenges facing NASA’s Artemis program for returning humans to the Moon?
- How do the costs and technical issues of the Artemis program compare to potential commercial space solutions?
- What are the key disadvantages of relying on the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion capsule for lunar missions?
- Why is the existing NASA infrastructure considered outdated and inefficient for current space missions?
- How do commercially developed space launch systems offer better cost efficiency and capability?
- What benefits does a modular and flexible mission architecture offer for lunar exploration?
- What are the financial advantages of transitioning to a commercial space strategy for lunar missions?
- How might increased launch cadence and improved reliability be achieved through commercial space systems?
- What are the strategic benefits of the U.S. embracing commercial space initiatives for lunar exploration?
- What are the key recommendations for transitioning NASA’s lunar exploration strategy to a commercial model?
