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Report: A Framework for Building a Civil Reserve Space Program (RAND 2023)

Synopsis

The document, titled “A Framework for Building a Civil Reserve Space Program,” authored by Yool Kim and George Nacouzi, provides a detailed analysis of the potential development of a Civil Reserve Space Program (CRSP) by the United States Department of Defense (DoD). This program aims to leverage the capabilities of the commercial space industry in a manner similar to the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) and the Voluntary Intermodal Sealift Agreement (VISA), which are partnerships between the U.S. government and commercial airline and maritime industries, respectively.

Key Insights from CRAF and VISA Programs

  • The report examines the CRAF and VISA programs, focusing on their key elements, such as guiding statutes and policies, the mix of DoD and commercial capabilities, industry participation and status, activation terms, and operations in threat environments.
  • CRAF and VISA are founded on the Defense Production Act and various laws and policies, aiming to bolster U.S. commercial industries and create environments conducive to partnerships.
  • These programs balance DoD’s reliance on commercial capabilities versus its own organic assets, considering cost-effectiveness and operational requirements.

Potential Application to Space

  • The proposed CRSP would require a similar balancing act, assessing the capacity and capabilities of the commercial space industry against DoD’s space requirements.
  • Key considerations include the health and maturity of the commercial space industry, its dependence on DoD revenue, and the feasibility of its business models to commit capacity without undue risk.
  • The activation terms of such a program would need careful consideration, focusing on the level of control required by DoD in crisis or conflict situations and the financial compensation needed to incentivize participation.

Challenges and Considerations

  • The commercial space industry’s varied status by sector, with some being more mature than others, poses unique challenges. For instance, the satellite communications and space launch sectors are more mature compared to newer areas like commercial weather and space domain awareness.
  • The financial health of the industry, its dependence on government contracts, and its capacity to meet DoD’s surge needs are important factors.
  • Concerns about operating in threat environments, indemnification, and loss of commercial operations control during activation are significant considerations for potential participants.

Concluding Observations

  • The document emphasizes that developing a CRSP would be complex and requires a careful structure to ensure appropriate incentives, policies, and activation terms.
  • The feasibility and structure of a CRSP would vary depending on the specific space capability area and the characteristics of the commercial space market.
  • A CRSP could provide strategic and warfighting benefits to the DoD while fostering a strong partnership with the commercial space industry, but it must be tailored to the unique challenges and opportunities presented by the space domain.

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