The U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command (SSC) is taking a new approach with its National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 procurement to increase the diversity and resiliency of its launch provider base. A key aspect of this strategy is the introduction of a tiered mission assurance framework that will allow a wider range of commercial launch providers to compete for national security missions.
Dual-Lane Procurement Approach
Under NSSL Phase 3, which covers launches in fiscal years 2025-2029, SSC is splitting the procurement into two lanes:
- Lane 1 is a firm-fixed-price indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract open to all qualified bidders. It covers lower-risk payloads launching to commercial orbits.
- Lane 2 is for the most stressing national security missions requiring the highest levels of mission assurance. Three providers will be selected for Lane 2 and will compete for task orders.
This dual-lane approach is a significant departure from NSSL Phase 2, where only two providers – United Launch Alliance and SpaceX – were selected to cover the full range of missions. By creating Lane 1 with lower barriers to entry, SSC hopes to take advantage of the growing capabilities in the commercial launch market.
Tiered Mission Assurance Framework
A critical enabler for expanding the launch provider base is SSC’s new tiered mission assurance framework. Under this model, the level of government oversight and mission assurance requirements will be tailored to each individual mission based on its risk tolerance.
Payloads in Lane 1 will utilize this tiered assurance approach. Lower-risk missions with more risk-tolerant payloads will have streamlined assurance requirements, making it easier for new entrants and less-established vehicles to compete. The tiered assurance levels will be implemented through the task order process consistent with the following table:
Missions in Lane 2 will still require the full, traditional NSSL mission assurance process given their critical national security importance. Launch providers will need to be fully certified by SSC and meet all NSSL orbit requirements to be eligible for Lane 2.
Balancing Affordability and Reliability
The tiered assurance framework seeks to balance the government’s need for reliability with the goal of lowering launch costs through competition and commercial practices. For lower-risk missions, the Space Force is willing to accept a slightly higher level of risk in exchange for significant cost savings and more frequent access to space.
However, mission assurance remains a top priority, especially for the most critical national security payloads. The traditional NSSL assurance process, with its extensive government insight and oversight, has resulted in a remarkable string of over 100 successful launches since 2006. SSC wants to preserve this level of reliability for Lane 2 missions.
The tiered framework recognizes that not all missions require the same level of mission assurance. By aligning oversight with each mission’s risk tolerance, SSC believes it can reduce costs and take advantage of more commercial practices when appropriate, while still maintaining high reliability for the overall NSSL manifest.
Encouraging New Entrants and Innovation
Another key goal of the tiered assurance approach is to encourage the emergence of new launch providers and promote innovation in the market. The U.S. has seen a wave of commercial space startups in recent years developing new vehicles in the small-to-medium class range. Many of these companies have ambitions to eventually compete for national security launches.
Under the NSSL Phase 2 approach, these new entrants had little chance of winning contracts, as they could not meet the full set of NSS requirements. The Phase 3 Lane 1 procurement gives these providers an opportunity to compete for at least a portion of the manifest, allowing them to gain experience and revenue from government launches.
SSC is also providing an on-ramp in Lane 1 for new vehicles and providers that are not ready to compete in the initial contract award. Each year, Lane 1 will be reopened to allow emerging providers to be added to the IDIQ contract as their vehicles mature and demonstrate success.
Over time, SSC hopes that some of these new entrants will progress to being able to compete for Lane 2 missions as well. The Phase 3 approach is intended to gradually grow the field of certified NSSL providers, making the market more competitive, innovative, and resilient.
Leveraging Commercial Developments
The commercial space launch market has seen significant growth and advancement in recent years, with new vehicles offering increased capabilities at lower price points. A number of U.S. companies are developing large reusable rockets that promise to dramatically reduce the cost of access to space.
The NSSL Phase 3 strategy seeks to leverage these commercial developments for the benefit of national security space. By creating more opportunities for commercial providers to compete for NSS launches, SSC hopes to take advantage of the innovation and efficiencies being pioneered in the private sector.
At the same time, SSC recognizes that commercial practices may not be appropriate for all national security missions given their unique requirements. The tiered assurance approach allows the government to utilize commercial services when acceptable, while still maintaining traditional mission assurance processes for the most critical payloads.
As the commercial launch market continues to evolve, SSC will need to continually adapt its approach to best leverage these developments while fulfilling its responsibility to deliver critical national security capabilities. The Phase 3 strategy provides a flexible framework to take advantage of commercial innovation through the Lane 1 on-ramp process.
Summary
The NSSL Phase 3 procurement represents a significant evolution in the Space Force’s approach to acquiring launch services. By introducing a tiered mission assurance framework and creating more opportunities for commercial providers, SSC seeks to expand the launch industrial base, drive down costs, and increase resilience.
The success of this strategy will depend on SSC’s ability to strike the right balance between traditional mission assurance practices and commercial innovation. It will also require careful coordination with satellite programs to align payload risk tolerance with the appropriate launch solution.
If successful, the Phase 3 approach could help energize the U.S. launch industry, expanding the field of certified national security providers and positioning the Space Force to take advantage of ongoing commercial developments. This will be critical as the U.S. seeks to maintain its edge in space and counter growing threats from adversaries.
While challenges and risks remain, the Phase 3 strategy represents a bold step by SSC to adapt its launch procurement approach to a rapidly changing market. As the first launches under this new model get underway in 2025, the space community will be closely watching to see if SSC can achieve its goals of increased competition, innovation, and resilience.