Introduction
As the space economy grows, the world becomes increasingly dependent upon space based services. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly important to understand the various factors that can impact this burgeoning sector. One such factor is the potential impact of natural disasters. This article explores the various ways in which natural disasters can affect the space economy and provides specific examples of how these events have shaped the industry in the past.
Infrastructure Damage and Delays
Natural disasters can directly affect the space economy by causing physical damage to essential infrastructure, such as launch pads, control centers, and manufacturing facilities. For instance, hurricanes or tornadoes can inflict significant damage to launch sites, delaying or even canceling planned launches. These delays can result in financial losses for both private companies and government organizations involved in space missions, as well as the need for costly repairs or rebuilding efforts.
The range of impacts that natural disasters can have on space economy are described in the following subsections.
Disruption of Supply Chains
The global nature of the space industry means that supply chains are often spread across multiple countries, making them vulnerable to disruption by natural disasters. Earthquakes, floods, and other catastrophes can impact the production and transportation of essential components, such as rocket engines, satellites, and other spacecraft hardware. This disruption can lead to delays in manufacturing and launching, affecting the overall progress of space missions and projects.
Impact on Satellite Operations
Natural disasters can also have a direct impact on satellite operations. Satellites orbiting the Earth are vital for various applications, such as communications, navigation, weather forecasting, and Earth observation. During disasters, these satellites can be utilized to provide real-time data and imagery to assist in disaster response and recovery efforts. However, extreme space weather events, such as solar flares, can damage or disrupt the functioning of satellites, leading to a temporary or permanent loss of vital services.
Economic Ripple Effects
The space economy is not immune to the broader economic consequences of natural disasters. In the aftermath of a major disaster, governments may need to divert resources from space initiatives to fund relief and recovery efforts. This can result in decreased investment in space projects, impacting both the public and private sectors. Additionally, natural disasters can lead to fluctuations in insurance premiums, affecting the overall cost of space missions and launches.
Examples of Natural Disasters and Their Impact
The following examples illustrate the broad range of ways in which natural disasters can impact the space economy.
Hurricane Harvey (2017)
The devastating hurricane caused extensive flooding and damage to the Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas. Operations at the center were temporarily disrupted, impacting NASA’s spaceflight activities and delaying the launch of some missions.
Hurricane Maria (2017)
This powerful hurricane severely impacted Puerto Rico, including the Arecibo Observatory, one of the world’s largest radio telescopes. The observatory was forced to shut down for several months, delaying various research projects and satellite tracking activities.
Kumamoto Earthquake (2016)
The earthquake in Japan damaged facilities of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which manufactures the H-IIA and H-IIB rockets used for satellite launches. This resulted in the postponement of several scheduled launches, including one for the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA).
Fukushima Earthquake and Tsunami (2011)
The catastrophic earthquake and tsunami in Japan led to the destruction of several industrial facilities, including those of aerospace companies. This caused a disruption in the production of components for the International Space Station (ISS) and the delay of a Japanese cargo resupply mission to the ISS.
California Wildfires (2020)
The widespread wildfires in California impacted several aerospace companies, including SpaceX and Lockheed Martin, which have facilities in the affected areas. The wildfires temporarily disrupted operations, including the production and testing of satellite components and rocket engines.
Hurricane Matthew (2016)
This hurricane caused significant damage to the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, particularly to the historic Launch Complex 39A. The damage required repair work, causing delays in SpaceX’s planned launches and the overall refurbishment of the launch pad for future missions.
Eyjafjallajökull Volcanic Eruption (2010)
The eruption of the Icelandic volcano caused massive disruption to air travel across Europe, impacting the transportation of spacecraft components and personnel. This led to delays in the launch of the European Space Agency’s CryoSat-2 Earth observation satellite, as well as other planned satellite launches.
Sichuan Earthquake (2008)
The devastating earthquake in China damaged several aerospace facilities and impacted the country’s space program. The disaster resulted in the delay of the launch of the Yaogan-5 Earth observation satellite and the Shenzhou-7 manned space mission.
Hurricane Ivan (2004)
The Category 5 hurricane severely damaged the Guiana Space Center in French Guiana, the primary European spaceport for satellite launches. The hurricane caused extensive damage to launch infrastructure, leading to the postponement of several planned satellite launches, including the European Space Agency’s SMART-1 lunar probe.
The “Big One” (overdue)
Consequences of Climate Change
Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on the frequency and severity of natural disasters. While it is difficult to attribute any single event to climate change, there is a growing body of evidence suggesting that it will exacerbate many types of disasters.
It’s important to note that the impacts of climate change on natural disasters will vary regionally and depend on local factors such as geography, infrastructure, and adaptation measures.
Here are some ways in which climate change is projected to affect various natural disasters:
Extreme Weather Events
Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation events, and storms. Warmer temperatures can cause more evaporation, leading to more moisture in the atmosphere, which can fuel more intense storms and precipitation events.
Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones
Warmer ocean temperatures are likely to result in more intense and potentially more frequent hurricanes and tropical cyclones. As sea surface temperatures rise, the energy available to fuel these storms increases, potentially leading to stronger storms with heavier rainfall and higher storm surges.
Floods
The increase in heavy precipitation events due to climate change is expected to raise the risk of flooding in many regions. Additionally, rising sea levels can exacerbate coastal flooding, particularly during storm surges and high tides.
Droughts
Changes in precipitation patterns and increased evaporation due to higher temperatures can lead to more frequent and severe droughts in some regions. This can have significant impacts on water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems.
Wildfires
Climate change is likely to increase the risk of wildfires in some regions due to warmer temperatures, more frequent heatwaves, and changes in precipitation patterns. These conditions can lead to drier vegetation, providing more fuel for fires and increasing the likelihood of their occurrence and severity.
Landslides
Intensified rainfall events and changes in vegetation due to climate change can increase the risk of landslides in certain areas, particularly in mountainous regions.
Sea-level Rise
Rising sea levels can lead to increased flooding, saltwater intrusion, and erosion, which may compromise the stability of launch pads, facilities, and transportation infrastructure. Furthermore, more frequent and intense storms or hurricanes could lead to more frequent storm surges, exacerbating flooding issues.
Note that several are located on low lying coastal areas.
Kennedy Space Center is Not Immune to Climate Change
The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is expected to be affected by climate change. Located on the east coast of Florida, it is vulnerable to several climate change impacts, including sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surges, and more frequent and severe weather events. These impacts pose risks to the infrastructure, operations, and surrounding ecosystems of KSC.
NASA has been proactive in addressing these concerns and has developed the Climate Adaptation Science Investigator (CASI) working group to assess the vulnerability of KSC and other NASA facilities to climate change. They are also taking adaptive measures such as elevating critical infrastructure, implementing natural barriers like dunes and wetlands, and updating building codes and design standards.
While the extent of the impact on KSC is uncertain due to the complexities of climate change and the unpredictable nature of weather events, it is clear that the facility faces risks that need to be addressed to ensure its long-term resilience and operational capability.
Natural Disaster Pose a Significant Threat
Natural disasters pose a significant threat to the space economy, affecting everything from infrastructure and supply chains to satellite operations and the broader economic landscape. As the space industry continues to grow, it is crucial to develop contingency plans and invest in disaster-resistant infrastructure to mitigate the potential impact of these events on the burgeoning space economy. Ultimately, increased resilience to natural disasters will help ensure the long-term success and sustainability of the global space industry.