Space Economy Market Reports: Part 7, Comparatively Incomparable

Space economy market reports are like snowflakes…

“Comparably Incomparable”

The phrase “comparably incomparable” is somewhat of a paradoxical expression. It suggests that something is both comparable and incomparable at the same time.

When we say that something is “comparable,” it means that it can be compared or measured against other similar things. It implies that there are shared attributes or qualities that allow for a meaningful comparison. On the other hand, when something is “incomparable,” it means that it is so unique, exceptional, or different from anything else that it defies comparison or measurement. It implies that there are no appropriate or valid points of reference for comparison.

Therefore, when we say that something is “comparably incomparable,” we are acknowledging its exceptional nature while recognizing that there may still be certain aspects or qualities that allow for limited comparison or evaluation. It implies a recognition of both its extraordinary uniqueness and its partial capacity for comparison within certain parameters or contexts – and that exactly describes space economy market reports.

Organizations Involved in Space Economy Estimates and Forecasts

Many organizations have published estimates and/or forecasts on the size of the space economy.

The following article provides a comprehensive database of Global estimates and forecasts Global Space Economy Size Estimates and Forecasts: 2005 to 2045. While this article provides a comprehensive database of national and regional estimates and forecasts Global, National and Regional Space Economy Size Estimates (February 26, 2022).

Comparatively Incomparable

Space economy estimates and forecasts can differ based on a wide range of significant factors, including:

  • Different methodologies and assumptions
  • Different data sources
  • Different timeframes, e.g. calendar versus fiscal year
  • Different geographical scopes
  • Different companies/industries included
  • Different approach to recognizing sales from companies which have sales from space-based activities, but also have significant sales from non-space activities
  • Different degrees of conservatism or optimism
  • Different levels of detail
  • Different accommodations for inflation (or not)
  • Different currencies and conversions
  • Different organizational motivations and objectives resulting in strategic bias
  • Different analysts with different experience, and susceptible to cognitive biases

Space economy reports, like snowflakes, are unique in their formation, even if they might appear similar at first glance. Each report is a product of numerous factors that shape their individual outcomes – just like every snowflake has a unique pattern formed by specific atmospheric conditions and its path to the ground – every space economy report is distinctive, crafted from a unique mix of parameters, perspectives, and analytical lenses.

The Bottom Line

Understanding the unique nature of each market report is essential when interpreting, or comparing, estimates and forecasts. In particular, comparing reports from different organizations is like comparing apples and oranges.

Lastly, it’s important to consider the inherent uncertainty in all estimates and forecasts, the potential biases which may be present in the report, the context in which the report was prepared, and the dynamic nature of the space economy.

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