The European Space Policy Institute and Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies published four scenarios for the LEO and lunar economy on October 16, 2026. Their workshop examined relationships among government involvement, commercial power, and public support.
Low Earth orbit, abbreviated LEO, is the region used by the International Space Station. Commercial station business models can combine private ownership with government purchases of research access and astronaut services. As New Space Economy’s explanation of government participation describes, an agency can purchase services without owning the complete system. An anchor customer supplies early demand that can help support infrastructure investment.
The first scenario combines corporate dominance with limited public engagement. The second combines commercial leadership with public support for companies addressing climate problems. The third retains mixed public-private investment but places cooperation within geopolitical blocs, with inequality reducing public interest. The fourth gives governments a strong public mandate and continuing purchasing role within competing, partly cooperative blocs.
These are scenarios, not probability estimates or market forecasts. Scenario planning examines several possible operating environments rather than producing one prediction. Peter Schwartz’s scenario-planning account describes techniques developed at Royal Dutch Shell and applied in exercises with companies and public institutions. In this workshop, the contrasting arrangements distinguish commercial leadership from public support: a commercially dominated space economy could have either substantial public backing or little engagement.
The organizers identify five shared priorities: public support, education, visible benefits, participation, and accountable governance. Their conclusions emphasize public understanding and involvement in decisions about space development.
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