Astropolitical alliances are agreements and partnerships between countries and organizations to cooperate on space exploration, research, development, and utilization. As space becomes increasingly important economically and strategically, these alliances are shaping the future of space governance and activity. Major alliances such as the Artemis Accords led by the United States and the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) led by China represent competing visions for international collaboration and leadership in space. These alliances and their growth signal a new era of “astropolitics”, where space cooperation and competition reflect geopolitical relationships on Earth.
History and Emergence of Astropolitical Alliances
Cooperation in space between rival superpowers has occurred before, such as the Apollo-Soyuz mission of 1975 between the US and Soviet Union. However, the Artemis Accords and the ILRS represent more extensive and formalized partnerships to coordinate space policy.
The Artemis Accords were announced by NASA in 2020 to establish principles and guidelines for sustainable space exploration as part of the Artemis lunar program. Key principles include peaceful purposes, transparency, interoperability, emergency assistance, registration of space objects, release of scientific data, protecting heritage, space resources, deconfliction of activities, and orbital debris mitigation. As of 2024, the Artemis Accords has 29 country signatories.
In contrast, China announced plans in 2021 to lead the development of the ILRS, an open facility on the lunar surface conducting research. While details are still emerging, China has positioned the ILRS as a more inclusive initiative for international cooperation compared to the perceived Western-centric Artemis program. Over a dozen countries have signed agreements to collaborate on the ILRS.
The growth of these alliances signals increasing geopolitical tension and competition being projected into space policy and governance. Major space powers are positioning themselves to lead in setting norms and standards, with significant economic and strategic implications.
Key Countries and Alignment
The United States and China are leading rivals in space development as the two most active space powers. As such, the two countries are spearheading the Artemis and ILRS alliances. The Artemis Accords formalizes the US goal of building partnerships under its principles and leadership. Meanwhile, China is leveraging its space capabilities to increase its international standing and influence through the ILRS.
However, other major players are important in shaping astropolitics. Russia has had a history of space cooperation but increasing tensions with the West over Ukraine have damaged these partnerships. India, Europe, Japan, and newcomers like the UAE are also critical countries to watch with independent space ambitions. These countries now face choices in aligning with the Artemis or ILRS vision. India was a recent surprise endorser of the Artemis Accords. In contrast, Pakistan has agreed to participate in China’s ILRS, likely reflecting its terrestrial alliances.
Most countries are likely to hedge their bets, cooperating with both alliances. But there may be increasing pressure to pick sides as geopolitical tension persists on Earth.
Impact on the Space Economy
Astropolitical alliances are both a driver and reflection of growth in the space economy. More countries are developing space capabilities given the increasing economic benefits and strategic importance. The global space economy reached $464 billion in 2022 and may rise to $1 trillion by 2040. Launch costs are also projected to drop in that timeframe, expanding access and markets for space services.
The Artemis Accords and ILRS alliances spur government and private investment in space technology and infrastructure to align with their principles and participate in missions. This expands markets and opportunities in areas like satellite services, space mining, space manufacturing, human spaceflight, and space tourism.
However, tensions between alliance leaders US and China also pose risks of fragmenting the space economy into separate spheres of cooperation. This could hamper technological interoperability and cost efficiencies from collaboration and scale. Disputes over “space resources” may also arise, challenging access and benefits to citizens globally.
Overall, astropolitical alliances promote space development but also reflect divides that constrain the full potential of space for all humanity. As more countries pursue independent ambitions in space, ensuring freedom of access and preventing conflicts are critical governance challenges.
Future Trends and Scenarios
Several key factors and uncertainties will shape the future evolution of astropolitical alliances. Continued exponential growth in the commercial space economy and new technology breakthroughs could provide momentum for cooperation, or exacerbate tensions between rivals. Elections and leadership changes in major space powers like the US also introduce volatility.
One scenario is a “virtuous cycle” where space development fosters alignment on principles for sustainable growth. This may require compromises between US and China to enable cooperation similar to the Apollo-Soyuz era. Alternatively, a “vicious cycle” scenario would see increasing fragmentation and conflicts in space reflecting hardening political divisions on Earth. Both scenarios have very different implications for which countries influence the future of space over the long-term.
No matter the geopolitical dynamics, astropolitical alliances appear central to space policy and are likely an enduring feature of this domain. As humanity’s activities expand beyond our planet, such partnerships bridge the intersection between the final frontier and our terrestrial politics. Getting the balance right between competition and cooperation will shape whether humanity can truly access the promise of space for all.
Summary
The emergence of major power-led astropolitical alliances signals a new era for relations between space and geopolitics. The growth of the Artemis Accords and China’s ILRS reflect not just ambitions in space but also leadership on Earth. More broadly, the expanding space economy is interlinked with the incentives and risks from national strategic interests playing out in space cooperation and governance. Balancing these dynamics constructively poses a challenge but also opportunity to set course for humanity’s future in space and on Earth.