The International Space Station (ISS) has been humankind’s continuously occupied outpost in low Earth orbit for over two decades. But with the ISS planned for retirement in 2030, NASA aims to transition from the government-run ISS to commercially-operated space stations for its human spaceflight activities in low Earth orbit. This commercial transition strategy is meant to stimulate growth of the LEO economy and reduce costs for the agency over the long-term. However, if commercial successors are not operational in time, NASA could face significant hurdles.
The Push for Commercialization
NASA’s Commercial Low Earth Orbit Development (CLD) program aims to support private companies in designing, building and operating commercial space stations to eventually take the place of the ISS. The goal is for NASA to be just one of many customers purchasing services from commercial providers in a robust LEO economy.
NASA currently has partnerships with several companies to foster commercial infrastructure in low Earth orbit, including: Nanoracks, Blue Origin, Sierra Space and Axiom Space. In late 2021, NASA awarded over $400 million in funded Space Act Agreements to help these companies develop commercial stations. The agency plans to certify commercial stations for NASA crew use, then procure services from providers once the stations are up and running in the late 2020s.
Technical Challenges of Building a Commercial Space Station
Advanced Engineering Requirements
One of the foremost technical challenges is the complexity of the engineering tasks involved. The design and construction of a commercial space station require specialized materials that can withstand the harsh conditions of space, including extreme temperatures, radiation, and microgravity. Furthermore, ensuring structural integrity during launch and deployment adds additional layers of complexity.
Life Support Systems
Developing reliable life support systems is another significant hurdle. These systems must provide air, water, and they must also manage waste. The enclosed ecosystem inside the space station must be carefully balanced to sustain human life for extended periods.
Safety Protocols
Space is an inherently dangerous environment. Creating safety measures to protect against potential hazards such as micrometeoroid impacts, radiation, and equipment failure is paramount. Emergency protocols and systems must be foolproof to safeguard the lives of the inhabitants.
On-Orbit Construction and Maintenance
Traditional construction methods are not applicable in a microgravity environment. Special techniques and tools have to be developed for assembling large structures in orbit. Long-term maintenance is also a concern, as getting repair crews and materials to the station would be expensive.
Docking and Resupply
The station would need to accommodate spacecraft from multiple entities for resupply missions and crew rotations. Implementing a universal docking system and ensuring smooth logistical operations require meticulous planning and execution.
Financial Challenges of Building a Commercial Space Station
High Initial Costs
The costs associated with building a commercial space station are exceedingly high. Initial investments would include research and development, manufacturing, and the actual costs of launching the materials into orbit. Funding such an endeavor requires substantial financial backing.
Ongoing Operational Expenses
Once the station is operational, there will be continual costs for maintenance, crew rotations, and resupply missions. These expenses can add up quickly and must be planned for in the overall budget.
Regulatory Compliance
Space activities are subject to national, and international, laws and regulations, which can incur additional costs. Complying with these standards can also slow down the progress of development.
Revenue Generation
To offset the immense costs, the station would need to generate revenue. Identifying and implementing profitable activities, such as scientific research, manufacturing, or tourism, is challenging. Market demand for these services is still uncertain, making it a risky investment.
Competition and Collaboration
Commercial space stations are not just national endeavors but are entering an arena of international competition and collaboration. The cost of staying competitive while also navigating international partnerships can be financially challenging.
Consequences of Delayed Transition
The development of commercial space stations faces numerous technical and financial challenges. Overcoming these challenges will require significant investment, innovation, and collaboration between private companies, government agencies, and international partners.
If delays occur in the availability of commercial space stations, NASA could face a gap where no station is available for the agency’s needs. This gap would have wide-ranging consequences:
Loss of Continuous US Human Presence in LEO
Without a commercial station to transition to, there would likely be a gap of several years after 2030 where the US does not have astronauts continuously present in low Earth orbit. This would leave China as the only country with a permanent human presence in LEO, impacting US prestige and leadership position.
Halt to Microgravity Research
The ISS hosts many microgravity science experiments and studies in biology, physics, materials science and more that cannot be replicated on Earth. These experiments take advantage of extended durations in freefall on the ISS. Without an orbiting lab, certain types of research would halt or be set back for years.
Impacts to Deep Space Exploration
Research on the ISS informs NASA’s human exploration plans to the Moon, Mars and beyond. Studies on the physiological effects of microgravity and testing of advanced life support systems directly enable deep space missions. Without access to a space station, NASA would have to take on higher risks or delay target launch dates.
Loss of International Cooperation
The ISS represents an unprecedented cooperative effort among nations including the U.S., Russia, Europe, Japan and Canada. A lack of a successor space station could negatively impact partnerships and geopolitical dynamics.
Stifling of Commercial Space Industry
An emerging private sector focused on commercial space stations, space tourism, manufacturing and more could collapse without NASA as an anchor customer. This would negatively impact associated industries like commercial launch providers.
Loss of Technology Testbed
The ISS provides an ideal environment to demonstrate key technologies like autonomous rendezvous and docking, in-space manufacturing techniques, closed-loop life support systems, and more. Without this testbed, progress could slow.
Options Available to NASA
To avoid a gap in human spaceflight capabilities, NASA has several options if commercial successors are not ready in time, each with their own drawbacks:
Extend ISS Operations
NASA could try to extend ISS operations further, likely to 2032 or beyond. However, the ISS faces significant aging and maintenance issues that make long-term extension difficult and expensive. Operating costs already run about $3 billion per year.
There are also political barriers, as the international partners must agree to an extension. Russia has only committed until 2028. Geopolitical tensions put its continued participation at risk.
Build a New NASA Station
NASA could design and build a new space station on its own, but this would be a costly undertaking. Moreover, it goes against the commercialization goal and ties up budget that could go to deep space exploration.
The International Space Station (ISS) serves as a useful benchmark for cost estimates. The total cost of the ISS is estimated to be over $150 billion. This figure includes the cost of developing, launching, and maintaining the station over the years.
While it is challenging to pinpoint an exact figure, the cost of designing and building a space station like the ISS would likely be in the tens to hundreds of billions of dollars when considering development, construction, launch, and operational expenses. Costs can vary widely based on the scope of the project, technological requirements, and economic conditions.
Partner on a New International Station
Teaming with other space agencies on a new international station is possible, but agreements would need to be worked out, along with funding contributions. The political dynamics make this option challenging.
Accept Higher Risks
If no options pan out, NASA may have to accept higher risks for future human exploration missions. But this would jeopardize astronaut safety and undermine public support.
Incentivize Commercial Industry
NASA’s best option is to provide more financial incentives and opportunities for commercial space companies to close the business case for private stations. Public-private partnerships and creativity will be essential to avoiding a gap.
The Road Ahead
While NASA pushes towards commercialization, the ISS remains critical for the next seven years. The agency must balance maximizing its use while also avoiding extensions that could delay the commercial transition. If done successfully, the LEO economy could blossom, reducing costs for NASA’s exploration goals. But it will require careful management of aging ISS infrastructure and enabling a competitive private market to take the reins in low Earth orbit.